Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – July 1st, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Good morning everyone!

Justin Mason: Only three games on the docket today, so that is disappointing, but as my dad always told me, “when faced with disappointment, go ask one of your other kids to do it.”

JG: Which one to buy low on Albies or Semien? Actually Hoerner might be easier to get ; But I���m more in need of homers/Rbis.

Justin Mason: I think if I needed power, I would go with Semien. He tends to have bigger second halves as well.

Guest: How would you rank Gleyber, Nico and Gonzales ROS in 12T cats OPS league?

Justin Mason: Nico, Gonzales, Gleyber

JG: Stream Arrighetti at BlueJays tomorrow? Deep 12T Roto

Justin Mason: I think that is very borderline. Lot of risk in his lack of control. I am rolling him in a couple 15’s so if the other options you have are bad, I get it.

Jax: How do we feel about streaming Kyle Gibson this week? Gets pitt and was

Justin Mason: I don’t feel great about it tbh. I think Gibson is a low upside, low floor kind of guy even with good matchups.

Guest: I’ve got too many infielders, who would you drop between Gelof, Hamilton, Noelvi, maikel Garcia, Gimenez in a 12 tm OPS categories league?

Justin Mason: Gelof

Jimmy Timber: (OC) Flush w/ good SP matchups this week. Bench one of Tanner Scott (3vBOS 3vCWS), Megill (4@COL 3@LAD) and Mason (3vLAA 3BAL)

Justin Mason: I think it is between Megill and Scott for the bench. I tend to worry about Megill’s matchups here and go with Scott.

Steven Kwan: Hi Justin…thanks for these weekly chats!  I’m in need of an Avg boost in an AL-only, 4×4 Roto (no Runs category, and it’s net SBs) keeper league.  I’m good in HR and RBIs, could move up in net SBs.  I’m in 2nd place and the guy in 4th place has needs almost opposite of mine.  His Kwan + Raleigh for my Adolis + Korey Lee…fair?  Kwan and Raleigh can’t be protected next year, and Adolis ($33) and Lee ($1) can be protected.

Justin Mason: I think this addresses what your team needs are so I am ok with it.

Guest: What do you expect for Wood and Noelvi?

Justin Mason: I think both have stud potential, but we have seen with numerous prospects that it doesn’t always translate into numbers right away. I tend to believe more in Wood because the skills are just so good.

Greg: I need to make room on my roster and am looking at cutting either Maikel Garcia or David Hamilton. Who would you rather keep as a backup SS/UTIL ROS? They’ve both had a bad couple of weeks but Garcia’s BABIP makes me think he’s the better player to roster?

Justin Mason: I think I lean Garcia unless you really need the SBs that Hamilton gives. I do think both will be good ROS though

Guest: Would you rather have DeGrom, Springs or Senga?

Justin Mason: deGrom

Bdubs: In 12 tm, traditional 4×4 roto, Josh Smith or India ROS?

Justin Mason: Smith

Edwin: Shallow Cats (OPS) League: Choose Happ / Ward / Lane Thomas for playoffs?

Justin Mason: Thomas

bmfc1: Hi. Season-long, mixed, 12-team, 5X5. I have Jon Gray with Matt Waldron, Jordan Montgomery, and Jameson Tallion available. Are any worth a move to replace Gray? Thanks.

Justin Mason: Give me Waldron

Waiting Game: No question, just an observation that for those of us in “-Only” leagues this is a stressful time of the year.  Waiting to see if any of my players get dealt out of the AL in into the NL.  Of course, there’s always the reverse, but in our league NLers getting added to the AL player pool are able to be claimed in reverse order of standings and I’m currently 2/12 so fat chance I’ll get to grab any solid adds that way.

Justin Mason: I think all AL/NL Only leagues should move to allowing teams that have players traded to the other league midseason being allowed to continue to roster those players. No reason titles should be won or lost because of an unforeseen trade.

Guest: With so many youngsters struggling this season, expectations for Wood? Could we also see Crews up this summer for WAS?

Justin Mason: Honestly, I am shocked they brought up Wood and didn’t preserve his rookie eligibility. If they consider themselves playoff contender, why wouldn’t they bring up Crews at some point too?

KC Pain: How do you view Joey Ortiz in dynasty, 18 teamer, 6×6?  I keep looking at his numbers and projections and seems like a .270 15 maybe 20 HR type and a handful of steals?  I have someone trying to trade him to me for Schmidt+Amador.

Justin Mason: I see him as a 10-15 homer guy with a good average and 15 SBs. I don’t mind that deal, but I really like Schmidt when he gets healthy.

KC Pain: Do you think Mayo is in the majors either on his team or another by August?

Justin Mason: I would hope so. I think he should have been up already

Jh: Bichette, bad luck or bad year?

Justin Mason: Both. I have to wonder how much the deader ball has had an effect on him. He doesn’t strike the ball super hard and it feels like he just doesn’t have the power to overcome it.

Miller Time: How scared should I be to start Bryce Miller vs BAL this week? He got torched by them earlier this season and generally seems to have a penchant for getting blown up by the better offenses

Justin Mason: I am not overly worried because most teams just don’t have better options. Maybe I would sit him in a 10-team league, but even that might be hard

Julio: Am I nuts to sit this guy in a 12T this week? The pitching matchups aren’t great and he’s been doing nothing

Justin Mason: I wouldn’t do it

Paulie Eff: 7×7 H2H (5×5 plus batter K’s OPS, QS & BB’s)  Worth holding onto Rice at C, or pick up the guy I drafted/dropped Sean Murphy, who’s just been terrible so far?

Justin Mason: I might hold and see what Rice does. The PA upside for him with catcher eligibility is intriguing.

Honkus Wagner: Festa, Pepiot, K. Harrison, who do you like rest of season? need to drop one at some point

Justin Mason: Harrison

Guest: Yesterday, Deyvison De Los Santos went 3-for-4 with 2HR and 8 RBI for AAA Reno. That’s 25HR on the season. When does Arizona call him up?

Justin Mason: I think he is up next month unless there is an injury. He is a bad fielder and that is a problem for a team that loves good defense.

Honkus Wagner: 12 team OBP league, how would you rank these corner guys ROS? Vientos, N. Marte, Vaughn, Hoskins?

Justin Mason: Hoskins, Vaughn, Marte, Vientos

Joe T: In a 12 team 5×5 head to head league, what is your ideal roster construction? How many hitters do you have on your bench vs pitchers?

Justin Mason: Depends on if it is daily moves. I tend to want a couple multi-positional guys in my lineup or on the bench so I can stack up and rotate in pitchers.

Colton: Stuck in the middle of being really good or bad in my 8 team dynasty due to injuries and underperformance. Have some really solid pieces to sell like Glasnow, Altuve, Steele, Trea Turner, etc. How much longer would you give it before starting the firesale?

Justin Mason: I think now is the right time to do a deep dive on your standings and really determine whether you can or want to compete this year. This is the exact right time to sell if you decide it is time.

Baby Billy’s Bible Bonkers: A soon to be activated Alek Pollack or JJ Bleday ROS 12 team 5×5 roto?

Justin Mason: Alek Thomas? I think I would go Bleday

Kenny Rogers: How do you know when to push your chips in and go for it?  Currently in 4th place with a good lineup, but my SP group needs a jolt.  Debating continuing to piece it together vs moving guys like Mayo/Caissie/E-Rod to get a top-end starter.  Play for the now or stick to the future plan?  And if going for it, who should I target with those players?

Justin Mason: If I think that a move like that can win me the league, I would do it. I would want a top 25 starter though top move Mayo.

Mouthy: What marriage advice would you give to your younger self?

Justin Mason: This feels like a trap…

Justin Mason: Honestly, I would tell myself to be less selfish and focus less on the things that don’t matter and focus on the things that do.

Guest: what do you think of Scherzer rest of season?

Justin Mason: As long as he is healthy,  no reason to think he can’t be the guy he has been the majority of his career.

Ouf of Field: Dropped Rooker for Burleson in a 13tm std roto. Feels lateral but should I swap back?

Justin Mason: Nope

TheDustmite: Who’s it gonna be this week, Butto or Scott??

Justin Mason: I think Scott

KC Pain: Garrett Mitchell worth a stash? Crowded OF situation sure, but he was pretty hyped previously I think?

Justin Mason: Nah, he needs to carve out time first

Justin Mason: Please don’t repeat questions!!!

Justin Mason: SHAME!!!

KC Pain: Some amusing (maybe?) league drama.  We have a guy (terrible aging squad) who says no one sends him fair offers, everyone is lowballing him, etc.

Justin Mason: I always love that. I usually tell people that if everyone undervalues your players, maybe it is you who doesn’t get their value

Guest: Vlad Jr scratched from lineup with a hand injury after getting hit by pitch yesterday. Just sharing..

Justin Mason: God, that sucks. I think he should be ok though

KC Pain: DeJong a hold in an 18 teamer?  I dont need him I have Lindor, but cant move him either it seems.  He get traded maybe he finishes .240 30+ HR?

Justin Mason: He may end up in a must worse playing time situation if he is traded.

Mouthy: That’s what I think too.

Mouthy: Name something that is in your top 5 keys to a successful relationship.

Justin Mason:

1. Don’t tweet out you’re chatting so your wife can jump in and ask you questions during it.

bibee: currently in a 5×5 (obp) 12 team keeper league and its a rebuilding season for me, ill spare you all the league details but we keep 8 mlb guys  and 1 minor leaguer each year – do you think it is smart to sell high on bibee now for future draft picks or is he a guy I should try to build pitching staff around? all the pitcher injuries worry me tho and I think I prefer to be hitter heavy for keepers (Kirby would be my only keeper pitcher then)

Justin Mason: I really like Bibee. I don’t think he is an ace, but a pretty safe #2 kind of pitcher moving forward.

KC Pain: Would you trade Painter and Rice and a 2nd for Vientos?  18 team dynasty 6×6?

Justin Mason: No

Showbusiness77: ESPN 10-team points: which 1 batter + 1 pitcher or 2 of the same would you look to consolidate for a better player? I have a couple very willing trade partners Rooker/Buxton/Merrill/Belly and Greene/Waldron/Gausman/Morton

Justin Mason: Rooker and Morton

Peter: Would trading Shota Imanaga or Garett Crochet for Pete Fairbanks be a wise move?

Justin Mason: I don’t think it would

Rob: Are you interested in Davidjohn Herz in a 15 team mixed points? He had that one insane start – small sample, I get it, but the K rate was borderline historic.

Justin Mason: I think you have to roll with him in a 15 right now. He is getting unlucky in the BABIP and there is a ton of K potential. Yes, the command is an issue and it will continue to be more than likely, but in a points league, he has a ton of value.

Kate: Is Winker in a platoon now with James Wood coming up?

Justin Mason: I don’t think necessarily, but he will be if he is traded at the deadline.

Woo: Have Tucker, Harris II, Bednar and Woo injured with only 3 IL. Am I okay holding all of them until Tucker is back? Or shooting myself in the foot? (6×6, sv+hld, h+avg, 12 team, 6 bench spots)

Justin Mason: I think it is ok to hold all unless you get more injuries.

Wyatt time!: That’s the Wyatt Langford we were looking for!  Been hot since coming off the IL, and last night’s cycle was the bomb.  I’ve got him at $10 in an AL-only 12-team Roto keeper league and looking forward to him anchoring my OF the next few years.

Justin Mason: Langford has been great since returning from the IL. Before that, he was just getting unlucky. I think the breakout is here. Traded for him in Tout Wars a few weeks ago.

Kate: Who do you prefer to start this week: Arrighetti in a risky two step (MIN, TOR) coming off a great start or one of what appear to be safer single start weeks for Cannon (MIA) or Albert Suarez (OAK)?

Justin Mason: Suarez

KC Pain: How do you feel about rule changes in dynasty?  A league I am of 5 years voted (10 to 8) to up moves from 4 to 8 per week.  Now people are complaining that people are streaming and making too many moves.  They also changed the IL from 10 to 6 …..for idk what reason.  Vote again was 10 to 8.  Now we have one refusing to cut hurt guys and says he doesnt care since he aint winning this year and he aint giving out free talent.

Justin Mason: I don’t have an issue with any of this. Encouraging people to be active in a dynasty league is always good and the guy not wanting to make moves to expose talent is well within his rights. If there was anything I would have been against it would have been the IL spots decreasing. In a dynasty league, you should never have to cut someone you’d like to keep because of injury.

Kate: Who to start at catcher this week: Melendez, Korey Lee, or Higashioka?

Kate: Sorry, forgot to add that’s in roto OBP for the catcher question

Justin Mason: Lee

Colton: What team would your opinion of change the most if they buy? Cardinals feel like they have to at this point, even with as poor as they’ve played.

Justin Mason: I think the Cardinals would definitely be on that list. The Nationals have been sneaky decent this year and with a low payroll and big prospects coming up or soon to come up, they could make some big moves that could vault them into the Wild Card.

Showbusiness77: What’s up with Semien this year. Has he regressed to an elite accumulator only? Should I try to flip him at his next period of good hitting? Can probably get Crochet with Semien and a mid-pitcher. I have Jordan Westburg as my backup 2B

Justin Mason: Honestly, I think he has been a bit unlucky and that is about it. I think he will rebound in the second half. If I needed the pitching, I understand flipping him, but you don’t need to.

Kate: What do you think happens with the Rangers pen at the deadline?  Do they move a lot of these vets like Yates, Robertson, etc.?

Justin Mason: I don’t know to be honest. Hard to see the WS champs be sellers at the deadline, but if they don’t get hot right now, they might have to. Yates and Robertson would definitely be attractive trade options. LeClerc too since he is a free agent. I still don’t think they sell a year after winning a WS

Guest: Jonathan India is 5th among 2B in wOBA and 2nd in xwOBA. It looks like he’s pulling less but his LD% is up and seems to be benefiting his batting average. If this is an approach/swing change, are you buying into him ROS?

Justin Mason: I think I am. More in zone contact and a great park to hit in.

Kate: Is Alexis Diaz in any danger of losing his job?  If so, is Cruz the next man up or someone else?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is.

Good or mid?: Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bryan Miller, Hunter Greene, Ober, Bobby Miller, Eflin, Chris Sanchez, and schwel, woo on IL, Christian Scott on NA. Is this beefed up enough or should I be looking to trade for bigger fish? Also, stream the schwel spot or hold and hope the rough edges smooth out?

Justin Mason: This is a fantastic rotation. No problem streaming the Schwellenbach spot though I do think he will be good ROS

Another Mariners Collapse: Is it time to start thinking of unloading Rodon and Houck before their value plummets?

Justin Mason: I think Houck should be fine as long as this isn’t a sign of workload catching up with him. A lot more concerned with Rodon and how he has looked recently.

Too many trades: How much is too much for Langford in a 12 team redraft h2h? Would you move a stud pitcher who has maybe lost a step (Castillo)? A diff OF who has seemingly fully made the leap? (Greene, Nimmo)?

Justin Mason: I would be fine with any of those deals. Prefer not to trade the pitcher, but if I had to I would. Nimmo for Langford would be a steal imo

Kate: Is Tyler O’Neill going to be like an 80% PT guy the rest of the way because of these injuries even if he stays on the field?

Justin Mason: Probably

Justin Mason: Only about 10 minutes left and a ton of questions to try and get to. Let speed round things.

Kate: What do you make of Luis Severino at this point?  The velo is there and the fourseam is getting whiffs, but the breakers look pretty meh and he’s throwing a ton of sinkers.  This all just seems… odd.

Justin Mason: The sinker is working which is why he is going to it. I am concerned over time the slider not being as good hurts him but the walks and homers have been decent to good this season, so no reason why he can’t keep making it work to some extent

Festafest: Take a leap with Festa or hold a known (but mid) quantity (Mitch Spence, Cannon)?

Justin Mason: I think I would gamble on Festa

Colton: Justin it is time you start putting some respect on Ezequiel Tovar! Yeah he strikes out more than you’d like, but he swings so much he also makes a lot of contact! And he plays in Coors!!!

Justin Mason: I definitely need to revisit this. Maybe I will do a pod with paul during the ASB about guys we were wrong about coming into the season

Keeper League: Who would you rather stash for next year: Woodruff or McClanahan?  Or neither?

Justin Mason: McClanahan

Fuego Jenkins: Year of the catcher? Currently rostering 4 and none except for Ruce are hurting me.. Alvarez, Wong, Fry,  and Rice. What a weird year

Justin Mason: It has been a really strange season for catchers.

Fool me x times…: I hear Heaney has changed his pitch mix. Is he trying to trick me or worth going after? Vs. Festa?

Justin Mason: I still don’t trust heaney lol. Love him but do not trust

Infield question: Better ROS:  M. Garcia or Hoerner?

Justin Mason: Hoerner but close

Fool me x times…: Also, hope you’re feeling better!

Justin Mason: Thanks!

Can’t stop the Rocchio: AL OBP league. Cut Rocchio for Malloy? (This would leave me with mostly platoon guys (Schneeman/Palacios/Horwitz/David Hamilton) for my 3 MI slots)

Justin Mason: Nah

FAAB SPs: Any love for Birdsong or Mercado in NL Only’s? Mercado for win chasers potentially?

Justin Mason: I guess Mercado for wins, but that is slim pickings

Fool me x times…: Who do I cut: Kirk, Korey Lee, Austin Wells? (2C, AL OBP league) – I know Kirk has been the worst/least steady with PT, but I wonder if Janssen will get traded if the Jays sell.

Justin Mason: Kirk

Pierre: Thanks as always for the chat, and do you believe that Jose Soriano can keep pitching the way he has been prior to going on the IL?

Justin Mason: I think he can but the floor will remain low with his control

Young guys: Keeper league.  How would you rate these guys for 2025? N. Jones, Tovar, Chourio, O. Cruz?

Justin Mason: Chourio, Cruz, Tovar, Jones

NL Only Trade Offer: Pfaadt for my Burleson was just offered and I need some pitching. Fair-ish?

Justin Mason: YES!

Your Wife: What’s my favorite color?

Justin Mason: The color of my blood.

Justin Mason: or Purple

Me and Julio…: If you were in a ‘build for next year’ position, would you go all in to try to get a low-cost Julio Rodriguez, given his regression this year? Do you believe in a rebound? Or 3 months in, is this the Julio we should expect?

Justin Mason: Absolutely. He will still be a stud

1 to drop: I have to drop one pitcher, 5×5 roto, Christian Scott, Yusei Kikuchi, or Bailey Falter?

Justin Mason: Falter

South Sider: Comfortably in the playoffs for a 16-team H2H QS league and starting to think about strengthening my rotation for the playoffs. Would you rather stash Springs or Robbie Ray? Would likely drop Pivetta to make this move.

Justin Mason: Ray

Justin Mason: Though I wouldn’t cut Pivetta for either

JG: Probably an easy question, but Stream Povich at Oakland this week ? 12T Mixed Roto

Justin Mason: yes

AJ Puk: Has sneaky been good of late. With T Scott certainly being dealt, is he worth a speculative add in deeper leagues for saves?

Justin Mason: absolutely

Reserve Expos: Hi Justin, I’m trapped in Montreal and have nothing better to do than ponder upgrades for my team. 12T H2H pts league and I’m looking for upgrade my rotation (the wire is barren for starters, more passable for OFers). Does Teoscar Hernandez for Gallen make sense?

Justin Mason: I think it does

Justin Mason: Also, can we bring the Expos back?!

Insert Witty Name Here: Need closer advice. Have 5 RP spots, which 2 are getting axed once Devin Williams comes back? Tanner, Jax, Hoffman, Aroldis, Fairbanks, A. Diaz?

Justin Mason: Jax and Hoffman

KC Pain: How badly am I screwed with this rotation in 2nd half?  Skubal, Blanco, Lively, Heanley, Kikuchi, Taillon, Myers?  DL – Turnbull, Senga, Verlander, Schmidt, DL Hall, Bieber, Giolito. 18 team dynasty so no one really is moving pitching. I mean I could overpay for Scherzer, Waldron, or Luzardo (current active trade block options. *crosses fingers insert is there a chance gif*

Justin Mason: That is pretty ugly after Skubal. I wouldn’t try and trade for Luzardo. That feels like a time bomb waiting to happen

andre: would you trade olson if you have vinnie p manning first? the former has been bad recently. h2h standard categories league

Justin Mason: I think Vinnie P will be fine, but I would want a lot back for Olson

DC: Any good way to look forward and predict leaders in holds?

Justin Mason: Not really. It is mostly about usage so seeing who is regularly being used in the seventh adn eighth is what I do.

andre: are the Os actually going to commit to playing keston? right when we think the answer is no, he starts vs a LHP last night! this is making fantasy managers lives miserable!

Justin Mason: So hard to predict what they will do because the team is so stacked. I hope they do

T Bone: Thanks for the chats Justin, I love your podcasts too.

Justin Mason: Thank you!

Thin in the OF: Should I stash Mike Trout now? What can I expect if he’s back before August?

Justin Mason: I think now is a good time to stash. I don’t think they would bring him back if he is not 100% healthy as this is a lost season

September: Will Buehler be any good again by the fantasy homestretch? See also: Montgomery.

Justin Mason: I don’t trust either right now

Guest: You believing in Carson Spiers, home this week vs. DET?

Justin Mason: Not really

T Bone: 3B this week – Candelario or Joey Ortiz? – both have been banged up lately

Justin Mason: Candelario

Justin Mason: I have to wrap up. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!