Hitter Fly Ball% Decliners — May 6, 2024

Last week, I identified and discussed the 10 hitters who have raised their fly ball percentage marks by the greatest amount compared to last year. This is important because home runs are a category in the vast majority (all?) of fantasy leagues, and all else being equal, more fly balls results in more home runs. Today, we’ll review the other side of the coin — the hitters who have suffered the most significant declines compared to last year. As a reminder, the odds are the majority of these hitters revert to previous season batted ball type distributions over the rest of the season. However, it’s still a good idea to monitor these rates moving forward as it’s always possible there’s a legit change in approach and these changes stick. If nothing else, the declines here could help explain a disappointing home run total so far.

Jonathan India has raised his walk rate, while reducing his strikeout rate, both to career bests. Sounds great, right?! Unfortunately, it’s come with almost no power, which has been exacerbated by a massive decline in FB%. It might look like he has merely traded some fly balls for line drives (he’s sporting an elite 27.8% LD% now), but his GB% has also shot up to 50.6%, so it’s just been a bizarre season so far. I have no idea what’s going on here, but his power potential is capped at this FB%. I have to imagine at the very least that some of those current line drives become fly balls, but that would still merely get him up to the mid-to-upper 20% range, which is still well below last year’s mark. Owners have to just cross their fingers as his improved plate discipline and normal maxEV suggest he should figure things out.

It’s time to vent! I don’t think I had ever owned Byron Buxton (I may have traded for him a couple of years ago mid-season), but was thrilled to roster him at a cheap price in both LABR Mixed and AL Tout Wars this year. Surely, I knew the injury risk, but figured that at the suppressed price, he could essentially play just half a season at his expected level of production to earn his cost. So what happens? Of course, he just hit the IL, but before doing so, he did absolutely nothing for his fantasy owners! I thought at the very least, he’d be a solid contributor while on the field.

He posted FB% marks over 50% the last two seasons, while this year he was merely above the league average. Like India, his LD% is up, so it’s not all bad news. But also like India, his power has evaporated, as his Barrel%, which had sat in double digits the last four seasons, is just 4.9%. He’s such a hard buy low because that injury risk always looms. So I’ll just hold onto him all season and hope for the best, while not bothering with him in my shallow 12-team mixed league.

For someone that sports a single digit career HR/FB, you don’t want Willi Castro posting a FB% over 40% like he did last year. Like the above names, he too has traded flies for liners, but this is actually a good thing for him. It’s helped him boost his BABIP to an absurd .408, which won’t last, but it’s helped solidify his spot in the middle of the Twins order. Since he also steals bases, he’s a nice injury stopgap while he’s playing every day.

Like Castro, it made no sense for someone with 30/30 Game Power and 35/35 Raw Power grades like José Caballero to be posting a nearly 48% FB% last year. He almost perfectly flipped his GB% and FB% this season, and it’s really boosted his BABIP so far. This is the Caballero fantasy owners should want to see.

On the other hand, you want Jack Suwinski, who posted an elite 114.7 MPH maxEV and 15.7% Barrel% last year to hit lots of fly balls. Perhaps a 53.6% FB% last season was too high, though he still managed a league averageish .290 BABIP, which seems worth it for the additional power. This year, he’s lost some fly balls, but nothing has gone right, as his BABIP has plummeted, despite hitting more BABIP friendly grounders, and his power has been non-existent. I don’t think this lower FB% is so bad, as over 50% is extreme. One other note is he has dramatically reduced his SwStk% and strikeout rate, so you have to wonder if there’s been an intentional focus on making contact at the expense of power. If he could pair his previous power with the improved contact, I would be very interested, but we don’t know yet if that’s possible.

I think in a deep league, especially one that counts OBP instead of batting average, he actually makes for a pretty decent buy low target. I’m not really interested in shallow leagues given his platoon status on a weak offense and the risk his strikeout rate reverts and he continues posting a low batting average.

Nolan Gorman has already suffered a drop in FB%, while both his LD% and GB% are up. This distribution still looks pretty good, though he does have the power to make that high FB% from last year worthwhile. He hasn’t shown quite as much power though with both his maxEV and Barrel% down a bit, bringing his HR/FB rate into the mid-teens. He’s very much in the Suwinski mold of a low batting average power guy, so the upside just isn’t that high in shallower leagues.

Like a number of hitters discussed above, Brice Turang had no business posting a 39.4% FB% last year during his rookie campaign. He seemingly has come to his senses this year, turning his flies into grounders, as his power is too limited to make good use of the extra fly balls. Note that his LD% remains below the league average, and yet he has posted a .349 BABIP, which Statcast thinks is a mirage, calculating a significantly lower xwOBA than his actual mark. If and when his BABIP falls, it’ll take down his OBP and he’ll have fewer opportunities to steal bases, ruining his shallow mixed league value.

Harold Ramírez has never been a big fly ball guy, as he has posted a sub-30% mark every season of a reasonable sample size. He’s taken his worm-killing tendency to new heights this year, though, posting a GB% of 67.4%, easily leading all qualified hitters. With a career 10.1% HR/FB rate, he doesn’t have the power required to post an above average FB%, but he also doesn’t have the speed needed to be worth hitting so many grounders and so few flies, though he does sport a career .334 BABIP, despite a consistently low LD%. Since there’s no power here, I’m not sure why he continues to earn playing time. He’s been taking a seat against right-handed starters more recently and he could continue to lose playing time, especially when Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe return.

Ke’Bryan Hayes enjoyed a power breakout last year over the season’s final two months, hitting 10 home runs from August onward. Combined with a handful of steals, he looked like a potential full season breakout with at least 20/10 potential. Instead, this season his FB% has reverted right back down to his pre-2023 level when that mark spiked, and he’s also right back to rarely barreling the ball. In addition to the lack of power, he hasn’t even attempted a stolen base! That’s a killer, as if he hasn’t been willing to run with a .336 OBP, then is he no longer a double digit steals guy?

On the positive side, both his walk and strikeout rates, along with his SwStk%, are sitting at career bests. Since last year’s power spike came so suddenly, it’s hard to know if it was just a fluke or a level we could hope he gets back to at some point this season. In dire need of a third baseman in my shallow 12-team mixed league, I considered him as a potential trade target to fill my hole. Ultimately though, I decided against making any offer whatsoever to his owner, believing instead that I could cobble together similar expected stats, at the very least, playing free agency each week until I find a keeper.

Jorge Polanco has posted a FB% in the mid-40% range over the past three seasons and has been high enough each year that his current mark would represent the lowest of his entire career. Like many others on the list, he has also posted an increased LD%, so his swing clearly isn’t messed up, he’s merely just hitting for BABIP more than for power at the moment, even though his BABIP is actually at a career low (LOL).

The reduced FB% hasn’t mattered so far though because his HR/FB rate has surged to a career high, which is bizarre given a below average Barrel% that’s sitting in the mid-single digits after three straight marks over 10%. He is also sitting with a career worst strikeout rate of over 30%, despite a SwStk% that’s perfectly normal and actually slightly better than last year. So everything about Polanco’s season so far has been weird! If I were an owner, I’d just hold here.