FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 15)
Jeff is away this week, so I have been called up from Triple-A for the spot start. This article approximately follows his methodology, focusing on players available in most leagues at the start of this week. The players are ordered for redraft leagues roughly by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. I tend to put a lot of weight on recent playing time trends and popular rest-of-season projections, including the various systems published at FanGraphs, and my own system. I play in a lot of NFBC 15-teamers, so that’s the context I have in mind when writing this.
Starting Pitchers
Springs has been excellent in his rehab as he nears a return from Tommy John surgery. Note that his fastball only averaged 89 MPH his last time out, down 3 MPH from 2023 levels, but it had averaged between 91 and 92 MPH in previous rehab appearances, so it’s probably just a blip.
Ray has showcased typical velocity in his rehab as he nears a return from Tommy John surgery.
Peterson remains a projections favorite despite lackluster MLB peripherals so far in 2024. The Mets rotation will get crowded once Senga returns, so the pressure is on him to perform if he wants to keep his rotation spot.
Baz looked solid in his long-awaited return to the majors and should have solid job security after the Rays shipped out Aaron Civale this week.
Paddack looks on track to return to the majors tomorrow. He had asked the team for a shutdown after being hit by fatigue in June. Despite his inconsistent 2024 and recent struggles, he possesses solid projections, fueled by a 15.1 K% minus BB% and a 4.02 xFIP, both relatively aligned with career norms.
Harrison returned from an ankle sprain this weekend. A guy you can slot in your rotation most weeks, but he’ll need to perform to keep his rotation spot when Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb return (assuming nobody else gets hurt before then!).
Rodriguez has been solid, if inconsistent in his rookie year. He is coming off his best two starts of the year and should have every opportunity to stick in the rotation for the rest of the year thanks to a combination of injuries and the Jays looking like likely deadline sellers.
As always, Heaney does a good job of striking out batters and avoiding walks, but he lets up his fair share of home runs. An arm you can use most of the time, but probably best to skip the Houston matchup next week.
José Soriano
Soriano’s transition to the rotation has gone as well as one could have hoped (3.93 SIERA, 60.7 GB%). At this point, projection systems have bought in, viewing him as a mid-rotation option.
Cobb has finally returned to the mound after many pauses in his rehab. He has looked good in two Class A starts, lending confidence to his current health status.
Schmidt has resumed throwing after suffering a shoulder strain in late May. He was very good before going down. If you want him, the time to stash is probably now.
Cabrera may return as early as today from a shoulder injury. His velocity has looked normal in Triple-A rehab appearances.
It has now been a month since Marlins manager Skip Schumaker said Meyer would return to the majors, “soon.” He has continued to be effective in Triple-A, although the team has not yet let him go beyond four innings as they manage his workload.
Like Heaney, Lynn is a solid midrotation arm you can start most weeks. He got shelled by the Nationals yesterday but his stuff looked normal enough, with fastball velocity above season norms.
Maeda will likely be one of the most dropped players after giving up nine runs at Minnesota this week. His Steamer is half-decent, and his velocity has ticked up over the last month. Maeda is not for the faint of heart, but he’s someone you can still consider using in two-steps and easy matchups.
2024 has not been kind to Rogers, but he had his best velocity of the year in his last (July 3rd) start, averaging 94 MPH with the fastball—close to pre-2024 norms. Notwithstanding, he’s tough to start outside of easy matchups until he shows fantasy managers a bit more.
Wesneski has posted back-to-back seven strikeout performances in his return to the rotation. An intriguing flier with decent ROS projections.
Usually a solid play at the Coliseum.
Usually a solid play at the Coliseum.
The quint[ana]essential higher-end streamer candidate with a tantalizing projected two-step next week.
Allen is OK to use in easy matchups, although he is at risk of demotion if he does not improve his performance soon.
Montas would rank higher if he were not so tough to start at home. June was at least his best month, peripherally speaking (K% minus BB%, xFIP).
Thorpe has put together three straight good starts, putting him in high-end streamer territory for 2024—though I like him more long-term.
Suarez has been ultra-effective in 2024 (2.43 ERA), but his peripherals (4.68 xFIP, 4.71 SIERA) have led projection systems to be skeptical of his ability to keep it up.
Anderson is a classic streamer with good matchups coming up over the next four weeks. He was dominant yesterday, racking up ten strikeouts over eight scoreless innings against the Cubs.
Povich looks like a demotion risk as the Orioles consider rotation alternatives at the deadline.
Potentially worth using at home against the White Sox this week, then cut.
Hancock is alright to stream at home in easier matchups for as long as he’s up in the majors.
Knack will likely get bumped from the rotation when Dodgers pitchers start returning from injury.
Birdsong’s stay in the majors will likely be a short one, with many San Francisco pitchers nearing return from injury.
Other stream candidates:
James Paxton, Carlos Carrasco, Spencer Arrighetti, Bailey Falter, Davis Daniel, Jonathan Cannon, Michael Mercado, and Carson Spiers.
Bats
An uber prospect with a 154 wRC+ over his first 27 MLB PA, Wood is the jewel of FAAB this week.
Bogaerts has begun a rehab assignment so it’s time to scoop him up wherever available.
Siri offers big power and speed upside as Tampa’s everyday CF.
Rice is hitting enough (172 wRC+ across 60 PA) where the eventual—but distant—return of Rizzo shouldn’t stop him from racking up PA. The dual C/1B eligibility is a nice plus, and the Yankees have even started him half the time vs. LHP.
Miranda is scorching hot and has started ten straight.
Rodgers has posted a 143 wRC+ with two home runs since his June 21st return from a hamstring injury. A must roster, even if you bench him often for away games.
The BA is a legitimate weakness, but it’s tough to find power-speed combos playing every day on the wire.
Toglia has started every game since his June 6th recall to the majors.
Marte could return later this month, so the time to stash him is nigh.
Bader is a good speed option that plays most days.
Injuries have ensured LeMahieu has remained an everyday player despite a slow start to 2024. He’s sporting a career best barrel rate and has slashed his K% from 22.2% in 2023 to 15.5% in 2024, so he’s probably due for some positive regression.
The Tim Anderson DFA has created a PA vacuum for Edwards to fill. He offers enough speed and BA upside to intrigue.
The Diamondbacks have eased him back in his return from a hamstring injury.
Carter has progressed to swinging a bat in his rehab for a back injury. If you want him, stash now to beat the rush.
Rojas has started seven of eight since his June 28th recall after a strong (141 wRC+) 38 PA stint in Triple-A since his demotion. He’s worth rostering for the stolen base upside as long as the playing time keeps up.
Ruiz could be approaching a rehab assignment in the next week or so. His playing time was very inconsistent before going down with a wrist sprain, but the stolen base upside is hard to ignore.
Toro could be approaching a rehab assignment. He was playing every day before he went down with a hamstring strain.
Keith has swatted 5 home runs since June 1st and looks like a fine strong-side platoon play in weeks with a lot of RHP on the slate.
Has started six of ten games since he was called up but could move into everyday AB quickly if he gets hot—or get demoted if he goes cold. Hard to find 70-grade current raw power on the wire.
Lee has started all four games since his call up and is worth rostering as long as he’s up. He could go back down when Royce Lewis returns from injury, however.
Walls has been playing most of the time since his 2024 debut in early June. He’s a BA killer, but his speed and positional versatility give him some appeal.
Singleton has started seven of the last eight and just might be the solution to the Astros search for a 2024 1B. He’s up to a 107 wRC+ on the year.
Suarez is a known BA killer but he still possesses some pop and he is playing every day.
Gerlado Perdomo
Safe-ish, boring MI option.
Sosa is intriguing as long as he continues to play every day. His xwOBA (.344) vs. wOBA (.292) suggests that he has been a victim of poor fortune.
The eponymous strong-side platoon bat. An excellent play in weeks with a lot of RHP on tap.
The Brewers have eased him back in his return from a fractured finger. He should eventually settle in as a strong-side platoon bat with a bit of pop and good speed.
Suwinski only faces RHP, but he has big power and some speed, and he has been heating up a bit lately.
Luis Garcia Jr.
Garcia is a good strong-side platoon 2B play in weeks with an RHP-heavy schedule.
Playing every day again with Otto Lopez on the IL. A fine streamer for those in search of stolen bases.
A good option for stolen bases until TJ Friedl returns.
With Jansen oft mentioned in trade rumors, Kirk could see his playing time tick up significantly in the second half.
Higashioka has started both games since Campusano returned from the IL.
Not playing enough to be startable yet, but he has been good across 47 MLB PA in 2024 (158 wRC+) so the playing time may soon tick up.
Playing often enough to be rosterable as long as Starling Marte remains on the injured list.
Boring, but playing every day—eight straight starts—since Kiner-Falefa went down with a knee injury.
Boring, low upside, but playing every day for San Diego.
Boring, but rosterable as long as he keeps playing every day. His xwOBA (.309) is much closer to his projections than his wOBA (.259).
Malloy is playing a lot but striking out a lot (36 K%), which poses some risk to his playing time outlook.
Butler is playing often lately and offers some power and speed upside. He has already socked two homers in July.
Duvall was relegated to a weak-side platoon bat until Laureano went down with injury. Barring a heater, he’ll likely return to that role when Laureano comes back.
Short-term strong-side platoon option until Heyward is ready to return from injury.
Short-term strong-side platoon bat until Stanton comes back in a few weeks.
Relievers
Williams has begun throwing bullpens in his quest to return from a back injury that has kept him out all of 2024. One of the most sought-after FAAB targets of the second half.
With Jordan Romano down for the count and Yimi Garcia likely to be dealt at the deadline, Green has a shot at holding onto the closer job for the rest of 2024. Nate Pearson is waiting in the wings if Green is moved as well.
With two saves this week, Beeks has seized hold of the vaunted Rockies closer job. Ratios beware.
Finnegan has been dangled in trade rumors of late, so there could be an opportunity for Harvey to seize the job–if he is not traded himself.
With Tanner Scott looking likely to be moved at the deadline, the Marlins closer job should soon be up for grabs.
Ben Joyce and Hans Crouse
With the Angels shopping veteran relievers at the deadline, the Angels closer job should soon be up for grabs.
The White Sox, Rangers, and Cubs, also look like candidates to have a new closer after the trade deadline, but it’s tough to foresee who’ll emerge from the rubble with the closer job.
Good read of very relevant updates. As for DWilliams, and as owner of three shares including an NFBC Draft Champions team that is contending but second to last in Saves, I’m growing concerned he may never reclaim the closer role. Trevor Megill has been utterly dominant in the role, has seemingly gotten better the past month+, and has three years of control remaining. Milwaukee is an unlikely seller at the deadline, so there is no need to showcase Williams. I think for him to regain the closer role a few things need to happen. One, Williams needs to look dominant during his rehab assignment – and – Megill needs to have a few less than dominant outings. I’m not entirely confident Williams regains the role even if he is healthy then. I’d be thrilled to be wrong about that . . . .
Thanks…imo, given his elite track record, the only thing that needs to happen for Williams to regain the role is for him to show he’s back to 100% health. The Brewers will be happy to have an elite eighth inning option in Megill.