Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Since the All-Star break extended the current weekly matchup to Sunday, July 21, I’m splitting this article into two sections, one covering this weekend and one covering next week. For those of you playing in head-to-head leagues and haven’t hit your games started cap, here’s the projected starters for this weekend:

• The Astros, A’s, Mets, Phillies, and Royals all look like they have pretty easy matchups this weekend. I’d avoid starters from the Brewers, Dodgers, Giants, Nationals, Red Sox, and Rockies. Also note that Milwaukee and Minnesota are off on Friday and play just twice this weekend.

Here are the projected starters for next week:

• Many teams have only announced a handful of starters as they reslot their rotations coming out of the break. There may be some more guess work for who pitches when until each team announces how they’re lining everything up after the weekend. To make matters more complicated, there are a ton of injured starters who will likely be activated sometime next week including Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie, Ray, Jeffrey Springs, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, and Jordan Montgomery. And then there are the potential minor league call ups like Max Meyer, River Ryan, and Matt Manning. All that to say, make sure you’re paying attention to the announced starters for each matchup and plan ahead.
• The Cardinals and Mariners both have a pair of easier matchups next week. It’s easy to recommend every Seattle starter but St. Louis still has a few starters I’d be weary of starting even with such favorable matchups.
• The Yankees have two tough matchups lined up next week, though they’re wrapping up a four-game set against the Rays on Monday giving Carlos Rodón a bit of a respite from the difficult opponents until his second start next week.

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As we have done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As we have done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Read the rest of this entry »

The All-Star break is quickly approaching and the search for useful pitching is never ending. Here are a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece. I’ve also included two entirely speculative adds in case you really feel like rolling the dice.

If you throw out Andrew Heaney’s first five starts in April, he’s accumulated 321.9 points across 12 starts since the beginning of May at a 4.80 points/IP clip. His overall line is being dragged down pretty significantly by that poor first month and he’s been particularly effective recently. This is nothing new from Heaney; he’s been pretty streaky throughout his career, especially since a lot of his value is derived from keeping the ball inside the park. The most encouraging aspect of this hot streak is the 19.4% K-BB% he’s running across these last 12 outings. It doesn’t come close to his career year with the Dodgers back in 2022, but it’s on par with what he was posting with the Angels before that. He’s probably worth an add during this hot streak if he’s available in your league.

Yariel Rodríguez missed about a month of the season with a back injury but he’s looked particularly strong since returning a few weeks ago. The Blue Jays used him as an opener in front of a bulk reliever a couple of times but have handed him a full starter’s workload in his last two starts. He’s responded by allowing just a single run in 12.2 innings against the Astros and Mariners. Encouragingly, he’s only allowed four walks while striking out 12 during those two outings, alleviating some of the concerns about his ability to command his repertoire. He was also working as a reliever in Japan’s NBP before coming over to the States this year presenting some risk that his workload is being monitored or limited by the Blue Jays to keep him healthy.

The Pirates had been using Luis L. Ortiz as a long reliever or bulk reliever for most of the season but they’ve allowed him to make full starts in two of his last three outings and things have gone swimmingly. Against the Reds and Mets, he tossed 12 innings of one-run ball with 12 strikeouts and no walks. Not that long ago, he was a highly regarded prospect in Pittsburgh’s organization, peaking at number four on their 2023 prospect list. A pretty disappointing rookie campaign soured his outlook but he’s making good on those high expectations a year later. There are plenty of reasons why he’s taken such a big step forward this season: he’s throwing a much more spin efficient four-seam fastball that’s now generating plenty of whiffs; he’s throwing his cutter much more often at the expense of his changeup; but the biggest difference maker is an ability to command his entire repertoire. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has gone from 1.23 to 2.89 leading to better results across the board. The only limiting factor is his future role; the Pirates could continue to let him start for now but he could be pushed back to the bullpen once Jared Jones or Bailey Falter are activated off the IL.

After a failed experiment as a starter, A.J. Puk is back in the Marlins bullpen and posting fantastic results as one of their top setup men ahead of Tanner Scott. Since returning from a shoulder injury in mid-May, he’s posted a 2.63 ERA and a 2.92 FIP across 24 innings. Over the last two weeks, he’s really stepped into a high leverage role, collecting four holds and nine strikeouts across 6.2 innings. I’ve also listed Andrew Nardi above since he’s been a solid setup man in Miami’s bullpen for nearly the entire year. It’s no secret that the Marlins will be looking to sell at the trade deadline which could open up even more high leverage opportunities for Puk or Nardi if Scott is traded away. And it’s even possible one of Puk or Nardi are moved to a contender as well.

I recommended Porter Hodge about a month ago in this column and all he’s done since then is post a 1.59 ERA and a 2.99 FIP across 11.1 innings. He’s finally seeing some high leverage opportunities in a Cubs bullpen that’s been an absolute mess this year. Héctor Neris is currently the ninth inning guy, but every role behind him is pretty much up for grabs. If you wanted to really speculate, Chicago just called up Hunter Bigge a few days ago. He’s posted outstanding strikeout rates at every minor league stop, and if things go well upon his debut, he could quickly force his way into the high leverage conversation too.

If you really wanted to go out on a limb and speculate, Kris Bubic could be your guy. He recently returned from his Tommy John rehab but the Royals have decided to move him to the bullpen because their starting rotation is currently filled with solid options. A year ago, he looked like he was in the middle of an exciting breakout and the velocity jump that helped fuel that success looks like it has stuck around after his injury. The Royals bullpen hasn’t been great with their current closer, James McArthur, looking pretty shaky at times. It’s possible Kansas City will want to try and keep Bubic stretched out in case they need him for the rotation, but they could also push him into higher leverage opportunities as a fireman to alleviate some of the pressure on their relievers.

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• A few teams have pretty wonky schedules next week as the season heads into the All-Star break. The Mets wrap up a four-game, wrap around series against the Pirates before hosting a couple of pretty easy matchups in the Nationals and Rockies at home. While I won’t recommend every starter in their rotation, you can feel pretty good about starting Christian Scott for both of his games as well as Luis Severino and Sean Manaea.
• The Nationals also have a four-game, wrap around series against the Cardinals that wraps up on Monday. That gives Mitchell Parker a more palatable start before his tougher matchup against the Brewers later in the week.
• Not only does St. Louis have that weird Monday game, they have a two-game series against the Royals, an off day on Thursday, and then a four-game set against the Cubs that includes a scheduled double-header on Saturday. The off day means they can keep their entire staff on schedule without having to callup a spot starter for the twin bill over the weekend. And like the Mets, all three of their opponents next week look pretty weak; it’s an easy call to start most of their starters next week.
• The Cubs don’t have the same luxury the off day affords the Cardinals so keep an eye on who their announced starters are for that weekend series.

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As Chad Young has done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »