Big Kid Adds (Week 13)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and there are ten of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Ben Rice (10): The 25-year-old has been promoted to the majors to play first base for the Yankees with Anthony Rizzo on the IL. Since being promoted, he is hitting .316/.391/.316 while starting in five of seven games. In AA this season (180 PA), he posted a .894 OPS. In AAA (42 PA), it was a 1.059 OPS.

He’s always had a good eye with a 15% BB% this year in the minors. He is continuing to use that advantage in the majors (13% BB%). Pitchers are only throwing him 33% fastballs, so he’s letting the secondaries pass.

Looking at his bat swing and exit velocity numbers, he’s on the weak side for a major leaguer*. They point to a dozen or so home runs and about .650 OPS.

The profile isn’t great but managers added him because he was catcher qualified. In these deeper leagues, any catcher with regular at-bats who is not a batting-average drag will be added.

Tyler Black (8): I’m unsure of Black’s role yet. When he was promoted this time, he started four straight games (all vs RHP) and has sat in the last two (one lefty).

While he’s been great in AAA (.275/.374/.483, 9 HR, 11 SB), his strikeout rate has ballooned to 30% in the majors. So far he’s shown no power in the majors with zero Barrels and a .236 xSLG.

Black should be a decent source of steals (14 total) but his minor league power and batting average haven’t translated to the majors.

Heston Kjerstad (8): Kjerstad is getting a third chance in the majors after destroying AAA (.300/.397/.601 with 16 HR and 2 SB). Even though he can hit, he might be a tough player to roster in the majors.

In these leagues, he is Utility-only qualified with only five games in the outfield where 10 is needed. Rosters are loaded with injured players so the lack of lineup versatility might make him a non-factor.

Also, he seems to be in a timeshare, possibly on the strong side of a platoon. A tough guy to figure out.

Dominic Canzone (7): An add based on the schedule. Canzone has been on the strong side of a platoon with Seattle scheduled to face just righties for the next two weeks.

While the 26-year-old’s .224 AVG is a drain, he does have 7 HR in just 130 PA.

Once the platoon advantage is gone, drop him even if he’s hitting. He won’t be productive if on the bench.

Joey Loperfido (6): I don’t know how Houston is using Loperfido. I’m not sure Houston knows what is going on. For now, he has four straight starts, so he might be getting a decent chance to contribute.

As for production, he has a .817 OPS, 1 HR, and 2 SB in 52 PA for far in the majors. Of the hitters listed, he is the one I’d prioritize.

Kyle Higashioka (5): With Luis Campusano on the IL, Higashioka will be San Diego’s full-time catcher.

Starters

Spencer Turnbull (6): With Taijuan Walker headed to the IL (suckitude), Turnbull is back in the rotation where he thrived. When starting, he has a 1.67 ERA (3.15 xFIP), .184 BABIP, and 10.0 K/9.

He did struggle as a reliever after his last stint in the rotation (4.26 ERA, 4.15 xFIP, 1.42 WHIP).

The only difference seems to be him moving away from his curve and change.

Kyle Hendricks (6): Sure, Hendricks can have a good game like the one on Tuesday where he allowed just two runs over seven innings with four strikeouts and one walk.

Instead, I’ll bet the guy with his 87 mph fastball and a 4.73 ERA over 460 IP since 2021 will struggle. I know all the narratives about him being different. Where was that difference while he’s posted a 6.87 ERA to start the season? The only change I could find is that he’s throwing his curve (12% SwStr%) more.

Ben Brown (5): When Brown returns from the IL, he’ll have a job in the Cubs rotation or as their closer. The issue is that his health status is up in the air and expects his neck to bother him for a while.

Brown has been a solid arm this season (3.58 ERA, 3.54 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 10.4 K/9) and should be added where possible even with the injury news.

Mitch Spence (5): I targeted and won Spence in two of these leagues. I added him for two reasons, schedule, and talent.

For the schedule, he faced the Angels this week who scored 6 ER in 5 IP with 5 K and 1 BB (not great). Next week, he has a two-step scheduled versus the Angels again and the Orioles. While not an ideal two-step, it’s better than other waiver wire options.

He has split time between starting and relieving this year. As a starter, he has a 4.40 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 49% GB%, 7.1 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9. His 13.8% K%-BB% is comparable to Reese Olson, Miles Mikolas, Charlie Morton, and Ronel Blanco. Must start, no. Streamable, yes.

Spence is attacking batters with mainly his Cutter (47% GB, 8% SwStr%) and Slider (14% SwStr%). He mixes in a sinker (75% GB%) and curve (17% SwStr%, 56% GB%). I know he’s on the A’s but I prioritized him over Hendricks.

Reliever

Aroldis Chapman (9): With David Bednar going to the IL, Chapman was anointed to be Pittsburgh’s closer.

 

* For this info I’m using some small sample size data on the swing speed. As for the Exit Velocity, I reference this article on combining avgEV and maxEV.