Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for July 9 (Back Wheeler, Blanco and Gilbert)
Coming off a successful Friday, Tuesday's slate offers several opportunities and choices to be made, but I've narrowed it down to three games that offer what I'm looking for from this system.
Today's picks include two pitchers who consistently throw quality starts and another arm that has come out of nowhere in 2024.
All picks are for 1 unit unless otherwise specified.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Pick
The Phillies Zack Wheeler has 14 quality starts in 18 total starts on the season and he's facing the Dodgers and Bobby Miller.
Wheeler's been consistent, but the Phillies haven't been as consistent with Wheeler on the mound as they are only 10-8 in games he's started, despite his record of 9-4.
The Dodgers lineup is top-heavy and Miller hasn't been the same pitcher since getting injured.
I look for a bounce-back by the Phillies who not only lost a series in Atlanta over the weekend, but also scored a total of one run over the last two games.
Finally, Wheeler sports a 6-2 record and 1.76 ERA at home on the season.
PICK: Phillies Money Line -143
Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Prediction and Pick
As I pointed out yesterday, the Marlins are horrible on the road and that's likely to continue in Houston against the rejuvenated Astros and Ronel Blanco.
Blanco has regressed from early in the season, but that was to be expected, as his early season numbers were unsustainable.
That said, he shouldn't have much of an issue with the Marlins, who sport a league-worst 75 OPS+ as a team.
You may want to wait and confirm Yordan Alvarez is playing, as I'm rolling the dice a bit here, hoping Alvarez is in the lineup after being hit by a pitch on Saturday and sitting out Sunday's game.
Either way, the Astros, who lead the league in batting average, should have enough to take down the Marlins.
PICK: Astros Run Line -1.5 +100 1.25 Units
Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Prediction and Pick
Logan Gilbert is our second pitcher with 14 quality starts in 18 outings on the season and the second one whose team is a mediocre 10-8 in his starts.
While Gilbert was roughed up a bit in his last start against the Orioles, the five starts prior and eight of the last nine were of the quality variety.
The Padres counter with Adam Mazur, who sports a 7.52 ERA and 5.45 FIP across six starts.
This is the type of pitching mismatch that this system was designed to identify, but unfortunately, the Mariners offense has been ugly: 22nd in OPS+, 28th in slugging, 26th in OBP, 30th in batting average and 27th in runs scored.
Gilbert's consistency wins out in the end and all the Mariners need is one more run than the Padres.
PICK: Mariners Money Line -149
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.