Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for July 5 (Back Paul Skenes, Aaron Nola)
A break-even record last Friday still left me short unit-wise in my battle to reach the .500 mark in the Quality Start picks for 2024.
While Friday's slate offered some intriguing matchings (Tanner Houck vs. Nestor Cortes and Cole Ragans in Colorado are two examples), I ultimately decided to go with the two picks below.
Time will tell if that was me not pulling the trigger when I should have or a wise decision, but one thing I don't want to do is to force picks.
Picks are 1 unit unless otherwise stated.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction and Pick
We begin with a matchup between Luis Severino and rookie sensation Paul Skenes in Pittsburgh.
After focusing on established veterans for most of the season, I've pivoted, at least as necessary, and will take the rookie Skenes, who's thrown seven quality starts in nine total starts since being summoned to Pittsburgh.
In his last four starts, Skenes has allowed three earned runs in 25.1 innings, striking out 32 and walking four.
Skenes has been dominant on the road, but he's not bad at home either, putting up a 2.89 ERA over 5 starts, striking out 33 and walking six in 28 innings pitched.
Severino hasn't been bad this season and he owns seven quality starts and a 3.42 ERA, but he hasn't been as good away from Citi Field, coming in with a 4.19 ERA in seven road starts.
Severino shut down the Pirates back in April, but that begs the question of will the Pirates benefit from having faced him before.
The Pirates are 6-3 in Skenes starts, the Mets are 8-8 when Severino starts.
PICK: Pirates Money Line -120 1.3 Units
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction and Pick
A couple of months ago I couldn't have imagined picking against the Braves and Max Fried, especially in Truist Park.
But injuries and non-performance have made the Braves a much more volatile team in 2024, while Aaron Nola has been consistent to the tune of 12 quality starts in 17 total starts.
The Braves are 9 games back and this could be a defining series, so they'll be fired up at home, where they are 27-16, but the Phillies are no slouches on the road at24-16 and the competition level for both teams is elevated.
Atlanta can still put up runs on occasion, but is not the feared offensive juggernaut it once was and comes in with a mediocre 99 OPS+.
This pick comes down to comes down to the number and in this one I'm getting Aaron Nola at +120 and the Phillies are 13-4 when he starts.
PICK: Phillies Money Line +120
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.