Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for June 28 (Back Blanco, Gilbert)
Another 1-2 effort leaves me looking for value as we close out June and the first half of the Major League Baseball season.
Today, I'm looking to the American League West where the race has tightened and the two teams at the top are battling on opposite sides of the country with their best on the mound.
Houston Astros vs New York Mets Prediction and Pick
The Astros have finally made it to .500, but it would be more than fair to ask where they would be without Ronel Blanco.
With several veteran starting pitchers on the injured list, the unheralded Blanco is 8-2, with nine quality starts on the season, while the Astros are 11-3 overall in games he starts.
It appeared that the expected regression was hitting Blanco in late May and early June when he gave up four runs in back-to-back starts, but Blanco's righted the ship since, allowing just two earned runs over his last 3 starts, covering 20 innings and registering three wins in the process.
Blanco will be opposed by veteran Jose Quintana, who has five quality starts in 15 outings on the season.
These are two of the hottest clubs in baseball, with each winning eight of their last 10 and the Astros on a seven-game winning streak.
Blanco is still due for some regression, but he is 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA on the road and the Astros are suddenly doing the little things right.
I perceive this as a value and believe the Astros are the better team with the better pitcher on the mound.
PICK: Astros Money Line -110
Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction and Pick
The Seattle Mariners have squandered more than half of the 10-game lead they held on June 18, but don't look at Logan Gilbert, who's been masterful with 13 quality starts in 16 total starts on the season.
Yet, the Mariners are only 9-7 in Gilbert's starts, with one of those losses coming in an 11-1 shellacking to the Twins on May 9 in Minneapolis where the home team piled up nine hits and eight runs off Gilbert in four innings.
Since then, seven of eight starts have been of the quality variety for Gilbert, with the last two totaling 16 innings, 6 hits, 0 runs 15 strikeouts and a single walk.
The Mariners offense has been an issue this season with a 95 OPS+ and is 25th in runs scored on the season while averaging less than four runs per contest.
Gilbert is opposed by Bailey Ober, who has six quality starts on the season, owns a 4.50 ERA and a very respectable 3.79 x ERA.
This one is in Seattle where the Mariners are 27-12 on the season while Minnesota is just over .500 on the road.
With the bullpens being relatively even in production to date, I'm going to take the Mariners in the first 5 moving this closer to a head-to-head battle of Ober vs. Gilbert.
PICK: Mariners First Five Money Line -132
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.