Pawel Adrjan

I'm pleased to share that I recently participated in the "Rewiring of the Global Economy" conference, co-organized by the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú - BCRP, the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, and the Inter-American Development Bank. This thought-provoking event brought together leading economists, policymakers, and financial experts to discuss critical issues shaping our global economic landscape. Key themes have emerged: 1. The critical importance of adaptability in monetary policy, financial stability, and economic governance. 2. The need for cooperation and coordination to address global challenges effectively. 3. The imperative of innovation, particularly in embracing technological advancements while mitigating their risks. 4. The importance of sustainability, aligning economic policies with environmental goals. I'd like to express my gratitude to Julio Velarde, Marc Uzan, and their teams for organizing this impactful event. The collaboration and exchange of ideas at forums like this are crucial as we work towards building a more resilient, innovative, and sustainable global economic system. #GlobalEconomy #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicPolicy #FinancialStability #SustainableGrowth

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Traditional debt lending from institutions like the International Monetary Fund to small island developing states (SIDS) have historically been predicated on solely focusing on the “good performing” economic indicators. Though SIDS like Barbados and The Bahamas are classified by the World Bank as “middle-income” and “high-income” countries respectively, traditional debt lending has ignored the broader picture. These SIDS are the most vulnerable when it comes to climate change and global economic downturns. Rather than be one dimensional, debt lending to SIDS must take a multidimensional approach to the entirety of the economic and non-economic issues that SIDS face. The Island Economist commends Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley on advocating for this cause! #debtsustainability #SIDS

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We recently revised up our year-end Selic rate forecast by 75bps to 10.5% and expect no more policy rate cuts from the Brazilian central bank (BCB) until Q1 2025. We make use of a simple monetary policy algebraic exercise to show how politicians' naïve belief that an increase in the central bank inflation target would allow space for a lower policy rate is wrong. We conclude that the BCB will be forced to take a more hawkish tone in its upcoming policy statement this week. We also run a scenario simulation by increasing the inflation target by 1ppt using our policy model. Our results flag a permanent 1.5ppt increase in interest rates by the fifth year, with risks of a policy rate hike in the near term and a temporary decrease in economic growth during the following two to three years. An undesirable outturn that is likely to keep Lula from pursuing it. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/exwJGEGD

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Call for Papers for Migrademo Project's final workshop: "We invite papers with novel approaches and/or empirical research on the political impact of migration in countries of origin including (but not limited to) the following themes: - The impact of return migration, as well as financial and social remittances, on political attitudes and behaviour in countries of origin. - The impact of migration on local politics and governance in countries of origin. - Migration, political (re)socialization, and engagement with politics in the country of origin (including the emigrant vote). - Drivers and obstacles to migration-related processes of diffusion in countries of origin." 🗓️ November 21-22, 2024, in Barcelona ⏰ Abstract submission deadline: June 26, 2024. 📍 Find out more: https://lnkd.in/gb2rgXaT European Research Council (ERC) Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona #Horizon2020 #MigrationStudies #Democracy #CfP

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How does access to #Credit influence economic outcomes and livelihoods? In a VoxDev article, Bernardus Doornik, Armando Gomes, David Schoenherr and Janis Skrastins, PhD summarise findings from their recent paper in the American Economic Review. They show with data from Brazil that access to credit for mobility (buying a motorcycle) allows workers to access new labor market opportunities and thus to increase formal employment, salaries and commuting distances. The estimates suggest that access to credit for investment in individual mobility generates a real annual return of 11.71 to 15.31% over 20 years. This underscores both the role of current frictions (eg spatial mismatches between workers and firms) and the potential of #FinancialServices to support better outcomes.

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At CGAP Karina Broens Nielsen and Emilio Hernandez-Hernandez set out the new approach exploring ways in which digitized data on customer outcomes and their financial transactions along with innovative research methodologies can be leveraged to better understand factors that drive the diverse impact of financial services. "Improving our understanding of the impact of financial inclusion is not easy, and will require our collective effort and collaboration. However, we are convinced it is a crucial step needed to create strategies and interventions that truly make a difference. CGAP's efforts rely on close partnerships with leading method and research experts, visionary financial service providers, government agencies such as central banks, and funders. We hope that the research and tools from this project will help close key knowledge gaps about the impact of financial services, including micro-credit, as well as inspire and enable the financial inclusion community to carry on research that continues to shed light on what works, when, and for whom, so that we can jointly pave the way for greater and more inclusive development outcomes." Read the blog post for full details: https://lnkd.in/gqiBpv47

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#PhDTheses | Maximilian Konradt analyses (1) the impact of  #ClimateChange policies on the economy and #FinancialMarkets and (2) the effects of the low interest rate environment on #FinancialInstitutions. Read this interview https://lnkd.in/eVCY2vWy

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This paper by our researchers suggests 4 steps that Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) could follow to increase their level of funding towards strategic sectors. 1️⃣ Identify the strategic sectors 2️⃣ Compare these with current DFI investment activities 3️⃣ Discuss how DFIs could support investments in these sectors 4️⃣ Invest in the target priority sectors. Read more: https://buff.ly/3pzGxZI

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Moody's Ratings changed Colombia's outlook to negative from stable; affirms Baa2 ratings. We were surprised the rating agency maintained the rating at IG levels despite the postponement of fiscal challenges for 2025). The rational of the adjustment for the outlook is based on GDP growth below potential and high interest burden.  Furthermore, Moody’s maintained the IG at Baa2 because of the spending cut equivalent to 1.2% of GDP announced by the government.  https://lnkd.in/eFD7fSUK #creditrating #Moodys

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#SUERFpolicynote “Mission creep, democratic accountability and central bank independence” by Rosa Lastra (Queen Mary University of London) This paper, Mission creep, democratic accountability and central bank independence, considers the past, present and future of central banking from the perspective of their mandates and their status of ‘accountable independence’. While the emphasis in the early 1990s was on the need for monetary independence based on a narrow model of central banking, in line with the Tinbergen rule, the emphasis today is on a broader model, one in which central banks are called upon not only to keep inflation under control but also to act as crisis managers in the context of financial crises, sovereign debt crises, the Covid 19 pandemic and now climate change. Having overlooked financial stability considerations in the years prior to the GFC, the pendulum shifted and financial stability became again an overarching consideration for central banks and, in the case of the Bank of England, a statutory objective. Central banks are also asked to confront the challenges of digitalisation and innovation. The broadening of central bank powers since 2008 calls for a rethink of the mechanisms of accountability, which should always be commensurate with the nature and extent of their delegated powers. We also need better communication to enhance transparency and democratic legitimacy. https://lnkd.in/d_3R2xZY #CentralBanks #Independence #Accountability #Inflation #FinancialStability

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🗞IN THE NEWS 📢The International Monetary Fund approved hybrid capital as an eligible instrument for channeling of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). 💰This presents a new way for countries to channel reserve assets to multilateral development banks, part of a broader push to raise funds for challenges like climate resilience and poverty reduction. 🔊According to IMF rules, countries that lend their SDRs through this pioneering approach can continue to account for them as reserves. 💡Read more ➡️ bit.ly/452y44D.

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How does sustainable finance work? This new paper outlines the mechanisms through which sustainability is impacted from finance through the real economy.

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New Dedicated Unit and Initiatives from World Bank Mark Major Advancement in Global Road Safety In a landmark move, the The World Bank has established a dedicated #RoadSafetyUnit, making it the first #multilateraldevelopmentbank (MDB) to do so. This development underscores the World Bank's unwavering commitment to addressing the #globalroadsafetycrisis. #Roadcrashes result in almost 1.2 million #deaths every year and are the leading cause of #death for #children and #youngadults aged 5-29. According to the World Health Organization, 92% of all #fatalities occur in low and #middleincomecountries. Nicolas Peltier-Thiberge, the World Bank's Director of Transport, emphasized the significance of the new #roadsafetyunit, stating, "#Roadtrafficcrashes are preventable tragedies with an unacceptably high toll for developing countries. The World Bank is a big supporter of the #globalroadsafety agenda, and we regularly work with client countries to make #roadstransport #safer for all users. The establishment of this new #roadsafetyunit demonstrates our dedication to this issue, which we aim to elevate to an even higher priority level." CHUMBE TOUONDOUNKO Rachidetou Hugo Zsolt de Sousa Godefroy Marcelin GUERENDEBO Niccolò Maracchi Antonio Clemente      Lukas MICKA Joost Möhlmann Joost Jeremie Belleudy Patrick Illing @BARBE Jean      Nneka Henry Giovanni Pintor Rasyidah I. Ibrahim @Valeria Motta Armijo Britta Lang Linda Olango Jon Cerezo Abeijón Véronique Rondeau Daisy Olielo Marzia Guadalupi Anastasia Metzger Marzia Guadalupi Aconkpanle Placide Colombe Benedikt Pollmeier-Aletras bernard Touboul   https://lnkd.in/eZYEsXdu

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✨ Everyone can now download our Origins of wealth toolkit! https://lnkd.in/d_5ap_4S This new ACF resource sets out the historical and present-day context in which many foundations and other institutions are choosing to research and publish connections between wealth origins and money from enslavement and make changes as a result. It gives practical guidance for foundation boards to hold conversations, understand the relevance for their organisation and make decisions about the right path for them. You’ll also find detailed advice on how to commission the research work, suggestions for how to communicate your intentions internally and externally, and an overview of actions you might want to consider as a result. With thanks to Barrow Cadbury Trust for their support.

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New paper in the Review of Radical Political Economics. With co-authors (and friends) Bruno Höfig and Iderley Colombini   The Tendency of the Non-Bank Financial Sector to Rise: A Materialist Account of the Growth of Market-Based Finance Abstract: This article introduces the distinction between money-as-money dealing capital (MMDC) and money-as-capital dealing capital (MCDC), laying the foundations for new developments in the field of Marxian political economy. First, it explains why banks, which manage the circulation of money-as-money, are able to issue instruments that perform monetary functions, and also why non-bank financial intermediaries, which manage the circulation of money-as-capital, tend to become increasingly important as the capitalist mode of production evolves. The distinction between MMDC and MCDC also allows for a more thorough understanding of the nature of Marx’s category of interest-bearing capital (IBC), explaining when and why a capital’s net income takes the form of profit and interest, unveiling the mechanisms that produce the (socially valid) illusion that every capital bears interest.

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