2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota
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Elections in Minnesota |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Minnesota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Minnesota has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A upper Midwestern state at the western end of the Great Lakes, Minnesota has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state; the last Republican to win Minnesota was Richard Nixon in his 1972 49-state landslide. Despite this, Minnesota could be targeted by both parties in 2024: no presidential Democrat since landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson (who ran with favorite son Hubert Humphrey) in 1964 has hit 55% of the vote in the state, with the only ones even carrying the state by double digits since then being Humphrey in 1968, Jimmy Carter (who shared the ticket with favorite son Walter Mondale) in 1976, Bill Clinton in both of his 1990s nationwide victories, and fellow Midwesterner Barack Obama in 2008; in addition, the state was particularly close in 1984 (in which the state narrowly handed Mondale his only state victory), 2000, 2004 and 2016 (where presumptive 2024 GOP nominee Donald Trump narrowly lost the state by 1.5% and less than 45,000 votes). Minnesota is considered to be a swing state in this election.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for the ballot.[3]
Primary elections[edit]
Republican primary[edit]
The Minnesota Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 232,846 | 68.94% | 27 | 0 | 27 |
Nikki Haley | 97,182 | 28.77% | 12 | 0 | 12 |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 4,085 | 1.21% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,470 | 0.44% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,431 | 0.42% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Write-ins | 720 | 0.21% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total: | 337,014 | 100.00% | 39 | 0 | 39 |
Democratic primary[edit]
The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 171,278 | 70.1% | 64 | 64 | |
Uncommitted | 45,914 | 18.8% | 11 | 11 | |
Dean Phillips | 18,960 | 7.8% | |||
Marianne Williamson | 3,459 | 1.4% | |||
Write-in votes | 2,000 | 0.8% | |||
Jason Palmer | 758 | 0.3% | |||
Cenk Uygur | 692 | 0.3% | |||
Armando Perez-Serrato | 372 | 0.2% | |||
Gabriel Cornejo | 323 | 0.1% | |||
Frankie Lozada | 290 | 0.1% | |||
Eban Cambridge | 235 | 0.1% | |||
Total: | 244,281 | 100% | 75 | 17 | 92 |
Legal Marijuana Now primary[edit]
The Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Krystal Gabel (withdrew) | 759 | 28.84% | - | ||
Dennis Schuller | 459 | 17.44% | 7 | ||
Vermin Supreme | 397 | 15.08% | 6 | ||
Rudy Reyes | 365 | 13.87% | 5 | ||
Edward Forchion | 168 | 6.38% | 2 | ||
Willie Nelson (write-in) | 19 | 0.72% | 0 | ||
Other write-ins | 465 | 17.67% | - | ||
Total: | 2,632 | 100.00% | 20 | ||
Source:[7] |
General election[edit]
Predictions[edit]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[8] | Lean D | July 9, 2024 |
Inside Elections[9] | Lean D | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Lean D | July 3, 2024 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Lean D | July 9, 2024 |
CNalysis[12] | Likely D | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[13] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[14] | Tossup | June 14, 2024 |
538[15] | Lean D | June 11, 2024 |
RCP[16] | Tossup | June 26, 2024 |
Polling[edit]
- Joe Biden vs. Donald J. Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden DFL |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51%[b] | 49% | – | ||
SurveyUSA[A] | June 12–16, 2024 | 626 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 41% | 12%[c] |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[B] | June 9–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
SurveyUSA[A] | May 8–11, 2024 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 42% | 14%[d] |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[B] | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
SurveyUSA[A] | April 3–7, 2024 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 42% | 14%[e] |
SurveyUSA[A] | February 23–28, 2024 | 1,603 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 38% | 20% |
SurveyUSA[A] | January 24–29, 2024 | 1,594 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
Embold Research/MinnPost | November 14–17, 2023 | 1,519 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 477 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 48% | 40% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden DFL |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[B] | June 9–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 41% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[B] | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden DFL |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon[C] | June 3–5, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 41% | 6% | 9% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden DFL |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
See also[edit]
- United States presidential elections in Minnesota
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes[edit]
- Partisan clients
References[edit]
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ McFadden, Alyce; Robinson, Taylor; Abraham, Leanne; O’Brien, Rebecca Davis (April 29, 2024). "Where R.F.K. Jr. and Independent Presidential Candidates Are On the Ballot". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
- ^ "Minnesota Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Primary Results". Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ "2024 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS". OFFICE OF THE MINNESOTA SECRETARY OF STATE STEVE SIMON. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Certification of Results of 2024 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota Secretary of State. March 12, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved July 10, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.