Fabio Mercurio 傅柏

The #electrolyzer market seems to be contradicting basic principles of economics. System prices are up, and equipment orders can take two years to deliver, while manufacturing is in overcapacity. Why did electrolyzer prices not fall despite the large manufacturing overcapacity that BloombergNEF keeps reporting? My colleague Xiaoting Wang untangles this conundrum in her report Hydrogen Electrolyzer Overcapacity Hasn't Cut System Costs. Her conclusions include: 1: Electrolysis systems include more than just electrolyzer stacks. 2: Much electrolyzer manufacturing capacity exists only on paper. Upstream component supply is much tighter. 3: Manufacturing capacity is not evenly distributed, with the most severe overcapacity in China. 4: As a result, electrolyzer stack prices are in fact falling in #China. There are more reasons, and Xiaoting elaborates on them all in her report. BNEF subscribers can click the link in the comments. Reach out if you're interested in accessing BNEF! #hydrogen

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China aims for a 3.9% annual cut in carbon emissions per unit of GDP & 20% renewable energy by 2025. Ambitious plan, but grid limitations, economic growth & new coal plants pose struggles to handle fluctuating renewable energy sources. Economic growth could lead to higher energy consumption, jeopardizing targets. New coal plant construction contradicts the plan's intent. Yet, China's emissions might have peaked early, exceeding their 2030 target, and increased investment in renewables is required for long-term success. #China #Energy #ESG #Emissions

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Latest insight briefing from the Energy Transitions Commission! An important read. Success in the low-carbon transition to date has been driven by industry’s response to ambitious government targets – accelerating deployment and driving down costs.  This paper highlights the need for government and industry collaboration to raise ambition in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions – the “NDCs 3.0” due at COP30 to limit the impact of climate change. Credible Contributions: Bolder Plans for Higher Climate Ambition in the Next Round of NDCs (energy-transitions.org) #TriplingAmbition #CredibleContributions #NDCs

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BloombergNEF reports that EV sales are slowing in the West. Underlying their analysis is an implicit assumption that lower prices are the solution. (If that's the case, we should just import Chinese EVs en mass.) In reality, it's charging that has imposed limits on EV market growth. The solution? Something as fast and convenient as gasoline. Something like #BatterySwapping. The sooner policymakers recognize this, the better for our climate and clean energy future.

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DX Shift for grid management including battery would be one of key factors. The global electricity wholesale market reflects the "strain" of the rapid expansion of renewable energy. There are frequent cases where solar and wind power generation, which are easily influenced by the weather, disrupt supply and demand, and trading prices become negative. It may cause a headwind to renewable energy due to the deterioration of profits of business operators.

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According to this report from the Financial Times the market for “grid-scale” #energystorage more than doubled last year. Almost all of the growth came from lithium-ion #batteries.- the cost of which has fallen more than 90% over the past decade to around $70 per KwH: "Without energy storage, the costs of the energy transition would be higher. Countries would need to “overbuild” wind and solar plants or look at other ways of integrating renewable energy, such as by managing demand or importing electricity from abroad." https://ow.ly/XkfU50SJQza

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Check out this chart from The Economist That is exponential growth in solar power installations! Good thing too, as AI is doubling in computing requirements every 5.7 months!

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The decrease in battery costs is poised to significantly impact the market by making electric vehicles (EVs) and stationary storage solutions more affordable. This cost reduction could accelerate the adoption of EVs, potentially leading to a surge in demand and further innovations in the sector including global V2G adoption.

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Really exciting - and important set of datapoints for the BESS industry from the @IEA and BloombergNEF, showing serious momentum and sustained growth for #energystorage: - The Energy Storage market grew faster than ever in 2023 - Biggest-ever annual growth in deployments recorded - 42GW of batteries deployed across utility-scale, behind-the-meter, off-grid and solar home - 60% jump forecast for this year to around 67GW/155GWh of global deployments in 2024 ...and this: - Battery storage was the most invested in of all commercially available energy sector tech in 2023. Drill into the report here: https://buff.ly/44jJT6m

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🔍 Insights from our smart charging maturity assessment! 🔍 With future market dynamics in mind, the optimisation of energy flows among assets (e.g. HP, PV, EV, ..), alongside emerging trends like the electrification of trucks and bidirectional charging practices, smart charging technologies emerges as a pivotal component in ensuring future-proof energy management strategies. However, overcoming hurdles such as legal frameworks, interoperability, and forward-looking strategies will be crucial to unlock its full potential. We invite you to explore our findings and discuss integrating sustainable smart charging solutions within your company. #EVCharging #Etrucks #siapartners #consultingforgood #SmartCharging #Sustainability #FutureMobility 🚗⚡️ 

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Below is an interesting article on #EVs, which suggests that electric vehicles are meant to solve the #climate problem. However, much of the climate problem has originated from our #consumption #habits, which are not changing. While we are shifting to #electric vehicles, many of these are bigger SUVs, thus undermining the impact of our efforts. Additionally, some impacts are not even accounted for, such as the raw materials required for bigger cars (and batteries), road maintenance, and road safety. The article suggests that addressing #climatechange should prompt us to rethink the problem in new ways, starting with our habits, and I couldn't agree more. A similar issue is seen with #renewable #energy. On one hand, it has significantly improved affordability and is fundamental in our fight against climate change, but it is also driving unhealthy consumer habits, supported by its affordability and climate change incentives offered by governments, both nationally and globally. This reminds me of an article I read a while ago on the energy intensive mining for crypto transactions. The article mentioned that more energy used for mining crypto transactions now comes from renewable sources, but it didn't address the fundamental question: is the currency any good for the real economy? and also that the energy from renewable source can be used for more productive causes. What do you think? #sustainability https://lnkd.in/d7wWsVt6

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Insightful observations on the future of industrial electricity prices in Germany. Projections suggest a decrease due to stabilised wholesale prices, but anticipate a rise in grid fees and levies to accommodate necessary infrastructure investments for the energy transition. Stay informed on these trends! #EnergyTransition #Germany #ElectricityPrices #makingfuture #energyprices

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The Netherlands was embracing the only short term solution to the energy crisis in Europe: adding behind the meter solar, as solar rooftops. The Dutch solar market gained 4.82 GW of new PV capacity in 2023. From that total, more than half (around 2.5 GW) of the new capacity installed in 2023 were residential installations, the "ProSumers." Those residential installations additions were 2.2 GW in 2022. So utilities took notice and here we are with the issue being politicized. Should or not a homeowner have to pay to be connected to the grid if she/he decides to add a solar rooftop? The Dutch competition authority decided that yes, ProSumers must pay. The grid fees could vary between €100 ($107.81) and €697, depending on system size. This is wrong at many levels. Consumers have a right to decide for themselves. If they want security of supply, want to save, want to minimize what they buy from the grid, they have the right to do so. Utilities should embrace and support DER and not try to lobby against. https://lnkd.in/diWNentc

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The question of where should we start when it comes to the #energy #transition, #transformation, #decarbonization...of whatever term you wish to use...can be answered by looking at the size of the emissions by sector and subsector - and the level of difficulty and cost. This data is well understood, so let's get moving! The #climate is not as patient as the legislators and corporations who hold all the cards in the timing of the transition to a #lowcarbon economy. HT Canary Media Inc. #gigacorn #gigacornhunter

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How much of the power generated in Europe in 2024 so far would you think originates from renewable sources?   Research conducted by Eurelectric reveals that renewables contributed to over 50% of all power generated across Europe in the first half of the year. This was evident during my recent visits to Denmark, Greece, Serbia, Poland, and Spain. While it's heartening to witness Europe's increasing reliance on renewable sources for the majority of its power supply, it's important to acknowledge recent declining electricity demand, down 4.8% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2022. Accelerating investments in electrification across Europe is pivotal for advancing sustainability. The combination of electrification fueled by clean energy and digitalization can propel us forward. With 55% of emissions coming from the demand-side, electrification emerges as the quickest path to decarbonization. And, electrification is proving essential in decarbonizing even the most challenging industries, with approximately 50% of industrial processes ready for electrification, from machine drivers to process heaters. The achievement of more than 50% from renewables marks significant progress in reducing reliance on fossil fuels and non-renewable energy sources. By fostering continued collaboration, increased investment in digital solutions, and a deeper commitment to electrification, we can further improve these numbers to meet our collective sustainability targets.   You can read the full piece here: https://lnkd.in/eDnGGM4P   #ReneweableEnergy #NetZero #GreenerFuture

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The share of electric vehicles is increasing worldwide. Even if Europe still has a significantly lower proportion of EVs sold compared to ICEs than China, the focus must be placed on the charging infrastructure in Europe in particular. Also because the electrification of trucks in long-distance transportation is now beginning, the energy demand (keyword megawatt charging system, MCS) will increase. The charging infrastructure must grow to the same extent. In addition to the charging stations, this also means the use of numerous energy storage systems as buffer storage for decentralized energy security. And these systems must be sustainable and prepared for an effective circular economy #energystorage #electricvehicle #sustainability #circulareconomy

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A timeline for the average levelised cost of electricity ("LCOE") across APAC. - #Solar PV costs declined 23% in 2023. New build costs should see a further 20% decline by 2030 driven by Chinese oversupply. - Distributed solar (retail) costs declined by 26%. In China and Australia costs are ~30% below residential tarrifs. Most other regions across #APAC will likely see greater cost competitivness towards 2030. - Onshore wind costs forecast to drop by ~30% again because of Chinese turbine supply. - Offshore wind expected to be cheaper than gas in #Japan and #Taiwan by 2027-28. Parts of china are already seeing price parity with thermal generation. Declining #capital costs, improving technology, and more supportive policy should accelerate the rate of change across the APAC market at an unprecedented pace over the next decade.

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The #hydrogen industry has lots of gaps to fill according to the scorecard in BloombergNEF's 1H 2024 Hydrogen Market Outlook: Targets Meet Reality. We gave the industry a score of 11 out of 25 for the last six months. The main pain point - unsurprisingly - is #demand. We see many production projects ready to start building, if only they could get a user to sign a long-term, binding offtake agreement. To get users more interested in clean hydrogen, we need to see stronger demand-side policy incentives - particularly: 1: Enforceable quotas and financial support for users (as opposed to producers) in sectors that can't decarbonize without hydrogen, and 2: Carbon prices that bite. That means >$100/t-CO2 and no free allowances. Unfortunately, all carbon pricing systems today are either well below this value or offer free allowances that make the effective #carbonprice much lower. That should start to change in Europe from 2026 with the introduction of the #CBAM. The report is structured like a presentation, with self-explanatory charts and little text, ideal for a busy reader. What else can you learn in it? 💡 What share of projects has reached FID and how that has been changing over time. 💡 How important #midstream is to the hydrogen story, and how much progress we're seeing there. 💡 Which markets have enforceable #quotas for hydrogen use. 💡 How much has been invested in hydrogen supply, demand and midstream and how BNEF expects that to evolve. 💡 How close governments are to meeting their hydrogen goals. BNEF users can view the whole report here: https://lnkd.in/e5hu8WkP Reach out if you're not a user and would like to explore BNEF access!

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🏙️ Cities are where everything comes together: industries, markets, and people – as well as all the systems that support them. 🌆 This makes urban areas major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. So, where do cities stand when it comes to decarbonization? And hey, how can they speed up the infrastructure transition? A Siemens Infrastructure report about the status of the #InfrastructureTransition gives insights: https://sie.ag/5VNzpu #Sustainability ♻️ #TransformTheEveryday #smartcities 🏙️

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