Dev Sanyal

We are delighted to announce Riham ElGizy, CEO of Regional Voluntary Carbon Market Company, as speaker at the 2024 Energy Intelligence Forum. https://bit.ly/4c1UV3t Learn more about the many distinguished speakers who have already confirmed their attendance, and register to be part of the conversation. #EIForum2024 | November 25-27 | London https://bit.ly/4c1UV3t Energy Intelligence, VCM #EIForum #Energy #EnergyPolicy #CarbonMarkets #VoluntaryCarbonMarkets #EnergyTransition #Geopolitics #GeopoliticalRisk

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ENERGY TRANSITION DEMAND UNCERTAINTIES #ConversationOfTheCentury June 3, 2024 While wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have turned oil and gas supply patterns upside down, energy demand is also becoming an ever more powerful market wild card as the low carbon transition moves in uncharted directions. Shifting perceptions of current and future consumption levels present an increasing headache for oil producers, challenging their ability and willingness to adjust supply in response. The problem is not just confined to oil and gas. A recent slump in power demand in Europe also raises questions about how to justify the massive build-out of renewable generation and grids that are needed to achieve net-zero goals. This underscores the importance of policy in driving forward the transition. But policymakers face some tough choices as they move from low-hanging fruit in the power sector to more challenging sectors such as transportation, industry, heating and agriculture. Climate could deal wild cards too, with more frequent extreme weather events galvanizing support for stronger green policies. There can be converse impacts too, with recent sweltering heat in India driving up the use of natural gas-fired power generation — which could also benefit more broadly from wider coal phase-out efforts. Joining Ronan Kavanagh in this Conversation of the Century are: > Sarah Miller, with an opinion piece on the demand uncertainty driving oil market turbulence https://lnkd.in/ee42v4Yx > Kristian Ruby, from industry group Eurelectric, in an interview on Europe’s power demand challenge https://lnkd.in/eHq4WuDC > Dinakar Sethuraman, looking at how soaring temperatures in India have boosted gas demand https://lnkd.in/e6eQ2JBd > Chase Winter, on the US Biden administration’s proposed clean energy tax credit expansion https://lnkd.in/eBVxPAcC > Jason Eden, examining the tough choices facing the next UK government on net zero goals https://lnkd.in/ejddVxYp > Herman Artinian, CEO of gas services company Upwing Energy, with an opinion piece on the impact of G7 coal phase-out efforts https://lnkd.in/ehSnfaJM > WATCH: Matt Harper, from battery maker Invinity Energy Systems, discussing battery tech and energy storage, in conversation with Energy Intelligence https://lnkd.in/ehZBeHM2 Join the conversation today to UNLOCK year-round complimentary access to this weekly editorial and ALL Conversation of The Century articles >> https://bit.ly/4852Mek

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This week in your #FridayFix… 🛢️ TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne was interviewed about the energy transitions in Bloomberg, and was revealing on the decisions that energy majors are having to make about their strategies and capital allocation. Pouyanne is optimistic about fossil fuel alternatives, which Total believes could account for 20% of its total energy sales by 2030. But the CEO stressed this transition can only happen if the company maintains a strong balance sheet – continuing to produce both fossil fuels and #cleanenergy until renewables can become cash-flow positive for the business (he estimates in 2028). Progress certainly, but too slow for most major projections modelling the routes to Net Zero... 👉 https://lnkd.in/euTpSscK   ⛑️ The Financial Times' new series ‘Health and Climate Change’ also caught our eye, highlighting important links between environment loss and spread of disease:   Studies continue to show that climate change is linked to negative health outcomes, including risking fuelling antibiotic-resistant ‘superbugs’ as higher temperatures, more flooding, rising pollution, and growing population crowding are all forecast to stoke bacterial resistance to existing drugs. #AMR (antimicrobial resistance) is a hot topic in the UN right now. 👉 https://lnkd.in/eMFKQcMa   Similarly, increasing #deforestation is a major driver of human infection and disease, opening paths for contamination to spread from animals to humans as they can spill over more easily – HIV, Zika, Sars, mpox and Ebola are some of the diseases that have emerged from tropical forests. 👉 https://lnkd.in/eDTVRTEn   🚜 And finally, on a lighter note, a new soil sensor said to be ‘revolutionising’ European agriculture has started UK trials. Measuring nutrient movement throughout the soil, the sensor helps growers make decisions about when to apply fertiliser, optimising nutrient uptake efficiency and increase profitability by reducing fertiliser use. 👉 https://lnkd.in/e7wgXFi4 #cleanenergytransition #climatechange #agriculture #ESG

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Oman’s Hydrom has signed agreements worth $11bn to develop two new green hydrogen production projects with the Electricité de France (EDF Group) consortium as well as Actis and Fortescue. The signings follow the completion of Hydrom’s second round of auctions bringing the total hydrogen production in the Sultanate to 1.38 million tonnes per year (mtpa) by the end of the decade. “Oman is strategically located between two key green hydrogen demand centres in Europe and Asia. This, in addition to, our tier-1 infrastructure and logistics capabilities has enabled us to leverage our first-mover advantage in the global hydrogen industry,” said Salim Nasser Al Aufi, the Minister of Energy and Minerals and chairman of Hydrom. The project with the EDF Group consortium seeks to produce approximately 178,000 tpa of green hydrogen by 2030, using around 4.5 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar energy coupled with battery storage and an estimated 2.5 GW electrolyser. Hydrom | EDF Renouvelables | #Hydrogen | #RenewableEnergy | #Oman

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The incoming COP29 Presidency, Azerbaijan, will partner with the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) on the monitoring of progress towards tripling renewable #energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber has tasked IRENA with an annual report series dedicated to monitoring progress and providing recommendations on achieving key energy goals of the UAE Consensus. The report, will be published each year from 2024 to 2030, and will provide timely and accurate inputs to future COP engagements. IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera commented, “IRENA and its 169-strong global membership are best placed to monitor progress towards the historic energy outcomes of COP28. Today’s cooperation between COP29 and IRENA will help ensure we have the continuity required to triple renewables and double efficiency by 2030.” The 2024 edition will be released by IRENA in cooperation with the Presidencies of COP28 and COP29, as well as the Global Renewables Alliance. The call to triple #renewable power capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030 reflects vital components of the #global response to address climate change and keep 1.5°C within reach. The #Time4Actions is now to ensure #3xRenewables by 2030. To learn more, click below:

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Energy experts warn of the risks to energy policy that could arise from what they describe as the “tempestuous collection of pressures”: a weakened state, high unemployment, industrial decline. Jabulani Sikhakhane Read the full column here: https://lnkd.in/d_PbrwFY #energypolicy #governance #privateenergyinvestment

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TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy’s 100 MW solar plant proposal in Lebanon offers potential but raises critical concerns. Our publication by Leonora Monson highlights a history of inequity, lack of transparency, and elite capture in Lebanon’s energy sector. Appointing an electricity regulatory body and implementing the Distributed Renewable Energy Law are essential steps for a principled energy transition. Learn why careful evaluation is needed. Dr. Walid Fayad, Marc Ayoub, Nasser Yassin, Pierre El Khoury, Karen Young, Camillo Stubenberg, The Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation (LCEC), & Ministry of Energy and Water - Lebanon

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www.polymerupdate.com *International Energy Agency trims crude oil demand growth forecast for 2024, gap widens with OPEC+ projections* The Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organisation, the International Energy Agency (IEA), has trimmed its crude oil demand forecast for 2024, widening the difference with the projections made by the producers’ cartel, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies (OPEC+). The latest projection may force the OPEC+ members to extend the voluntary output cut beyond June 2024 to achieve supply-demand equilibrium in the market and support the price favourably. Please open link to read full article: https://bit.ly/4arpNZ8 www.polymerupdate.com

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OPEC drives energy prices with its decisions significantly influencing crude oil prices. All eyes are on the virtual OPEC+ ministerial meeting on June 2, where #OPEC is expected to extend production cuts until year-end to support prices, writes Suhas Reddy. If #OPEC continues its production cuts, the supply-demand balance will shift in favor of demand in 2H 2024, as the global economy enters a period of rising demand. On CME Group's #OPEC Watch Tool, there's a 79% chance of supply cuts remaining unchanged and a near 19% likelihood of easing cuts. The US, China, and India are the top three crude oil consumers, with the US guzzling 20% and China consuming close to 16% of global oil production. Despite China's stimulus package, its weak demand remains a significant headwind. As OPEC's decisions dynamically impact the market and liquid instruments like CME WTI Weekly Options enable superior risk management, allowing traders to effectively navigate short-term price fluctuations and hedge against near-term price volatility stemming from OPEC meetings, EIA reports, geopolitical events, and weather shocks. Read our latest research note at https://lnkd.in/gWjeBfWS #OPEC #EnergyPrices #CrudeOil #OilConsumers #US #China #India #EnergyMarkets #RiskManagement #WTIWeeklyOptions #CMETrading #EnergyTrading #OilPrices #SupplyDemand #GlobalEconomy #EnergyNews #OilNews #MarketWatch #EnergyInsights #OilAndGas #EnergyIndustry

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Speaking at a recent Delphi Economic Forum panel on “The Energy Mix – Hydrocarbon Exploration & a Balanced Path to Clean Energy”, the CEO of #HELLENiQENERGY subsidiary #HELLENiQUpstream, Tassos Vlassopoulos, said:   “Research demonstrates that, in all energy transition scenarios, even in the most ambitious ones, there are major requirements for new hydrocarbon discoveries to ensure energy security and affordability. Current producing assets are insufficient to meet demand. This gap drives the business case for new upstream activity. Collaboration between all parties will be needed to ensure that the transition takes place on time. Governments, Industry, Contractors, and Technology players need to work together and in tandem to achieve what we are all striving for”.   #delphiforum #energytransition

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Latest Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Quarterly Gas Review tracks key metrics in gas and LNG markets Link to OIES Gas Quarterly Review: https://lnkd.in/e_35hwaq Some key points: 🔹 European benchmark gas prices continued to slide into 2023/24 winter on a combination of record high pre-winter inventories, solid supply, amid moderate winter temperatures and continued weakness in industrial demand 🔹 Benchmark prices in winter 2023/24 remained well below those of winter 2022/23 🔹 Two notable dynamics occurred in winter 2023/24 1️⃣ Prices peaked in October rather than in the coldest part of winter usually between mid-December and late January 2️⃣ European prices exhibited a late winter ‘mini rally’ from late February to mid-March 🔹 Late summer/early winter price rally leading to October peak was driven by three events from August 2023 onwards although bullish impact was capped by the strong storage inventories, robust supply, weak demand dynamics 1️⃣ Threat of industrial action emerged in August 2023 at four Australian LNG plants operated by Chevron (Gorgon and Wheatstone) and Woodside Energy (North-West Shelf, and Pluto), following disputes relating to pay and conditions 2️⃣ Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October raised possibility of a broader geopolitical conflict in the Middle East raising risk of disruption to LNG exports 3️⃣ Yemen’s Houthis initiated a campaign of attacks in November 2023 against shipping in Red Sea reducing LNG flows via Suez Canal 🔹 None of these supply events were sufficient to reverse softer market tone for a sustained period and by mid-December 2023 prices were back at their pre-rally level 🔹 February-March price rally in Europe saw front-month caused mainly by late arrival of LNG cargoes from Qatar that had been redirected away from the Red Sea via the Cape of Good Hope and exacerbated in mid- March by brief slump in daily flows of Norwegian pipeline gas to Europe 🔹 Impact of events quickly dissipated as seasonal demand continued to decline throughout March and it became clear that Europe was going to end winter with underground storage stocks at record levels 🔹 Europe ending winter with substantial storage stocks is particularly pertinent for forward prices in both Europe and Asia as it implies lower European LNG imports for storage replenishment in summer 2024 #gas #lng #gasprices #gasmarkets #europe #asia

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The sharp drop in prices for minerals critical to the green energy transition is masking a looming shortage due to inadequate investment, the International Energy Agency said Friday. International Energy Agency (IEA) #GreenEnergy #MineralShortage #EnergyTransition #IEAReport #CriticalMinerals #EVBatteries #RenewableEnergy #SustainableInvestment #ClimateGoals #ESGRisks

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Alexandre Danthine and Alejandro Zerain  article in latest Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Energy Forum: What are the economic risks associated with investing in energy storage, and how can they be mitigated? 👉 Link to OIES Energy Forum: https://lnkd.in/e8DVM8wU Some key points: 💠 #energystorage investments need to be supported by mechanisms and innovative market solutions to ensure long-term revenue certainty 💠  Lower volatility and reduced spread in prices in energy markets of future #lowcarbon #powersystems with increased flexibility from demand response pose economic risks to storage investors 💠 Their revenue diversification is also challenging due to the small size of #ancillaryservices markets that tend to saturate quickly 💠 Existing #regulatory framework poses risks due to among other things ambiguities in market rules and participation requirements 💠 But these risks can be mitigated with long-term revenue certainty and portfolio diversification 💠 A few examples of such approaches include participation in #capacitymarkets, enforcement of cap-and-floor regimes, profit-sharing arrangements, and hybrid #powerpurchaseagreements (PPAs) with co-located #renewable resources 💠 For example, co-location of energy storage with renewable sources can also unlock long-term, stable, and predictable revenues in the form of PPAs 💠 Projects with renewable assets co-located with energy storage can secure sale of electricity for their generation at an agreed price over a long-term period 💠 Inclusion of energy storage can open the possibility to sign PPAs with baseload or fixed profiles, which trade at a premium compared to pay-as-produced PPAs, while also reducing the volume risk associated with PPAs requiring volume commitments 💠 As a mitigation strategy co-location of energy storage with renewable assets also provides revenue and portfolio diversification 💠 In the case of #solarpv and #batteries, the generation profiles of these technologies tend to be complementary 💠 Solar PV assets generate in the middle of the day, when prices tend to be low, while storage assets charge at low prices and discharge at high prices, typically when solar PV is not generating 💠 As a result, co-location of these technologies can help to maximize the use of the grid connection with limited impact on the dispatch operation of each asset

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IEA expects global clean energy investment to hit $2 trillion in 2024 https://lnkd.in/dMrCyxHE #OSW #OSW2024 #Oman International Energy Agency (IEA)

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Has the #energytransition really started? After yesterday's official launch we look at the key takeaways from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2024. 🔋 Primary energy has continued its accelerate post-covid rebound in 2021, now reaching a record of 620 EJ (+2% from 2022). New demand was roughly covered by fossil fuels (+8EJ) and #renewables (+5EJ), having a direct effect on record emissions increase (+2.1%). 🛢 Increase of #oil and #coal production and consumption was focused in APAC, increasing consumption by 5% each, while in Europe both declined by 1% and 16% respectively. 🚢 Gas remained stable due to growing US and APAC production and declining European demand. ⚡ Globally renewable #electricity generation has continued to rise (+12% from 2022), however low-carbon generation has faced some obstacles. 💧 Hydropower generation has been limited by weather variability while nuclear power has maintained a steady share in the energy mix at 10%. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gVmKK535 #StatsReview

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Great to see again former Italian Prime Minister and Delors Institute President Enrico Letta in Athens at the Greek Prime Minister’s Opening Gala Dinner after a panel discussion with Kyriakos Mitsotakis focusing on European politics, and #EnergyTransition & security, including Trans-Atlantic relations. The former Italian premier said Europe needs to have all 27 onboard, adding that the single market is the biggest achievement of the EU highlighting the importance of #Innovation. Letta also called for the creation of a strong #EU structure to implement the #GreenDeal in order to accompany these financial changes, proposing to the EU leaders to combine private and public market to support the most vulnerable citizens and small businesses with the green transition.

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Available now 📊 Read the latest EEIST report for a detailed look into the economic implications of #China's #EnergyTransition. 📈 Follow the link for details: https://lnkd.in/e5dnfChw University of Exeter

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