Top of the Order: NL Trade Deadline Preview

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

With less than four weeks to go until the July 30 trade deadline, now’s a great time to start taking a lay of the land and determining which teams will be buying, which will be selling, and which are caught in the middle. I looked at the AL teams on Tuesday, so today, let’s cover the NL clubs.

All playoff odds are updated through the start of play on Thursday.

The Obvious Buyers

Philadelphia Phillies (99.9% playoff odds)

The Phillies just won’t stop winning, injuries be damned. They kept winning when Trea Turner went down with a hamstring strain in early May and missed a month and a half, and more recently when catcher J.T. Realmuto underwent right knee surgery a few weeks ago. Now, they’ve continued to win without sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, who landed on the IL last week with relatively minor groin (Schwarber) and hamstring (Harper) strains. Philadelphia’s strong starting pitching depth has been tested lately too, with Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull also on the shelf.

Still, just because the Phillies have weathered these injuries so far doesn’t mean they’ll survive if this attrition keeps building. Moreover, even when they are at full strength, the Phillies still have some areas of weakness they can and should upgrade before the end of this month.

Center field has been something of a black hole in Philadelphia this season. Johan Rojas has floundered in his first year as the full-time starter, and while they could move Brandon Marsh to center, he is best suited to play left field. The Phillies also should consider cutting ties with struggling utilityman Whit Merrifield.

Potential Additions: Center fielders Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Marlins), utilitymen Amed Rosario (Rays), Garrett Hampson (Royals), and Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals).

Los Angeles Dodgers (99.3% playoff odds)

The Dodgers didn’t make a flashy deadline move in either of the past two seasons, with the 2021 blockbuster for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner representing their last foray into the deep end of the market. But this year might be the time to swing big.

As good as the Dodgers are, they’re very top heavy on both offense and defense. Gavin Lux and Walker Buehler haven’t bounced back from injury as expected, Max Muncy’s oblique injury has forced him to the 60-day IL, and the bullpen depth has been tested by inefficient starting pitching and injuries to Ryan Brasier and Brusdar Graterol. Getting back injured players like Mookie Betts, Muncy, Clayton Kershaw, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Graterol at various points in the second half will certainly help, but their returns might not be enough to prop up the bottom end of the roster and carry the Dodgers to the heights expected of them.

Potential Additions: Shortstop Bo Bichette (Blue Jays), utilitymen Luis Rengifo (Angels) and Amed Rosario (Rays), starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Tyler Anderson (Angels), Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Mason Miller (Athletics), Carlos Estévez (Angels), and Tanner Scott (Marlins).

Atlanta Braves (92.0% playoff odds)

The parallels to the 2021 team are obvious here, except these Braves are in an even better spot. Rather than floating around .500 at the deadline, as they were three seasons ago, the 2024 Braves have excellent playoff odds even without Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider.

Outfield remains an issue, with Adam Duvall struggling and the assorted cast subbing for the injured Michael Harris II stinking things up, and rookie right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach isn’t really cutting it as the fifth starter.

The shallow farm system impacts the quality of player the Braves will be able to acquire, so the list of potential additions was created with that in mind. Additionally, I’m focusing on outfielders who bat left-handed, knowing that Duvall is likely to be half of a platoon.

Potential Additions: Outfielders Jesse Winker (Nationals) and Adam Frazier (Royals), and starting pitchers Tyler Anderson (Angels), Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Chris Flexen (White Sox), Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates).

Milwaukee Brewers (91.4% playoff odds)

The Brewers have plenty of position player and bullpen depth, and this week they buttressed their injury plagued rotation by trading for righty Aaron Civale, who should slot nicely into the middle of the rotation.

With Civale in the fold, there’s certainly less for the Brewers to do for the rest of the month, though they could certainly add another starting pitcher or swingman-type to help cover innings. I don’t expect any big names.

Potential Additions: Starting pitchers Trevor Williams (Nationals), Chris Flexen (White Sox), Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates).

On The Fence

San Diego Padres (57.6% playoff odds)

Never count out A.J. Preller during trade season. He could acquire star players, trade away above-average rentals, make smaller moves on the margins, or all of the above. Pitching, pitching, and more pitching would be the need if they add.

Nothing’s off the table for the Padres because nothing’s ever off the table for the Padres. A farm system weakened by the Dylan Cease trade has less to offer if Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries are truly untouchable, but there are still a few coveted prospects for San Diego to offer. The Friars could also trade from their infield depth at the major league level with Xander Bogaerts expected back from injury at some point before the end of the month.

Potential Additions: Starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Chris Flexen (White Sox), Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Scott Alexander (Athletics), Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, and Luis García (Angels), and Tanner Scott (Marlins)

Potential Subtractions: Infielder Ha-Seong Kim and outfielder Jurickson Profar are the two key rentals, but I think Preller would trade pretty much anybody if the deal was right, except for Fernando Tatis Jr. and — maybe — Jackson Merrill.

St. Louis Cardinals (41.7% playoff odds)

The Cardinals have completely turned around their season, and while our playoff odds don’t love their chances, they’ll almost certainly be buyers based on how things have gone since their horrid March/April. Acquiring a bat for the injury plagued outfield should be a focus, and they could also use some marginal additions to their pitching staff.

Still, there are games to be played before the deadline, and while I don’t see a blowup, the Redbirds have rentals that teams would covet, and maybe someone would give them an offer they couldn’t refuse for closer Ryan Helsley.

Potential Additions: Outfielders Taylor Ward (Angels), Jesse Winker (Nationals), and Brent Rooker (Athletics), and starting pitchers Trevor Williams (Nationals), Chris Flexen (White Sox), Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, and Luis García (Angels), Scott Alexander (Athletics), and Tanner Scott (Marlins).

Potential Subtractions: First baseman Paul Goldschmidt, third baseman Nolan Arenado, infielders Brandon Crawford and Matt Carpenter, starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, and relievers Helsley, Andrew Kittredge, and Giovanny Gallegos.

New York Mets (41.5% playoff odds)

The Mets’ offense is rolling and the pitching has been adequate enough to get some wins while Edwin Díaz is suspended, but it’s still basically a coin flip as to whether they’ll be playing more than 162 games this year.

Relief pitching was a major strength to start the year and is now a major need, and the starting pitching isn’t going deep into games either. The Mets could cast a wide net and look for help beyond this year, too. If they sell, they have a huge cache of rentals.

Potential Additions: Starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Tyler Anderson (Angels), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, and Luis García (Angels), Tanner Scott (Marlins), and Scott Alexander (Athletics).

Potential Subtractions: First baseman Pete Alonso, center fielder Harrison Bader, designated hitter J.D. Martinez, starting pitchers Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana, and relief pitchers Adam Ottavino, Adrian Houser, and Jake Diekman.

Arizona Diamondbacks (25.9% playoff odds)

The two World Series teams from last season are in similar, uninspiring situations.

During the offseason, the Diamondbacks notably increased payroll to make a run at another league championship, so I don’t see them adding any more high-salary guys if they go that route, instead hoping for internal improvements from Corbin Carroll and Jordan Montgomery. Lefty starter Eduardo Rodriguez is also expected to make his Arizona debut at some point down the stretch.

Should the D-backs sell, they would almost certainly decide to do a quick reset rather than a complete teardown. At this point, it still feels unlikely that they’d punt, given the mediocrity in the NL Wild Card race and their postseason run last year, but if they do, they’d have arguably the best rental bat (Christian Walker) and closer (Paul Sewald) on the market.

Potential Additions: Utilitymen Amed Rosario (Rays) and Luis Rengifo (Angels), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, and Luis García (Angels), Tanner Scott (Marlins), and Scott Alexander (Athletics).

Potential Subtractions: First baseman Christian Walker, outfielders Randal Grichuk and Joc Pederson, and reliever Paul Sewald.

San Francisco Giants (24.6% playoff odds)

So much for the Giants having a great rotation led by Logan Webb and Blake Snell. Snell has been awful when on the mound, and he’s already landed on the IL twice with groin injuries, leaving Webb as the only Giants starter to last the whole season in the rotation and putting immense strain on the bullpen.

On the offensive side, the platoon-heavy Giants might feel content with what they’ve got, though they’re always on the lookout for more plug-and-play guys. If San Francisco sells, the platoon players on its roster might be enticing for other clubs.

Potential Additions: Starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Michael Lorenzen and Andrew Heaney (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), Tyler Anderson (Angels), and Martín Pérez (Pirates), and utilitymen Amed Rosario (Rays) and Luis Rengifo (Angels).

Potential Subtractions: Infielder Wilmer Flores, outfielders Michael Conforto and Austin Slater, starting pitcher Alex Cobb, and reliever Luke Jackson.

Should Probably Sell, But Will They?

Cincinnati Reds (10.2% playoff odds)

It’s been a frustrating season for the Reds, but a sweep of the Yankees — while it may not meaningfully have changed their playoff odds — might give them the confidence to buy.

Trading prospects to boost a longshot playoff push doesn’t feel very prudent, but considering all the acquisitions the Reds made in the offseason, they may still go that route; they could even jump in for a longer-term player or two.

Potential Additions: Utilitymen Amed Rosario (Rays) and Luis Rengifo (Angels), starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Michael Lorenzen and Andrew Heaney (Rangers), Tyler Anderson (Angels), and Martín Pérez (Pirates), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, and Luis García (Angels), Tanner Scott (Marlins), and Scott Alexander (Athletics).

Potential Subtractions: Starting pitcher Frankie Montas, and relievers Lucas Sims, Brent Suter, and Buck Farmer.

Pittsburgh Pirates (9.8% playoff odds)

As tantalizing as it may be to imagine a playoff rotation fronted by Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones, that might have to wait for next season, even if owner Bob Nutting said in late June that the team was planning to buy at the deadline.

The lack of offensive thump up and down the lineup can’t be fixed in a single deadline, unless Nutting’s front office goes completely, ahem, nuts with trading prospects. That said, the Buccos are clearly confident in their future, so the biggest names on the team should and almost certainly will be staying put.

Potential Additions: First basemen Pete Alonso (Mets), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), and Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), and outfielders Taylor Ward (Angels) and Brent Rooker (Athletics), and utilityman Luis Rengifo (Angels).

Potential Subtractions: Catcher Yasmani Grandal, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, outfielder Michael A. Taylor, starting pitcher Martín Pérez, and reliever Aroldis Chapman.

Chicago Cubs (5.1% playoff odds)

The extreme disappointment of the Cubs’ season will probably translate to an extremely disappointing deadline, because even if they sell, they don’t have that much to trade away. Cody Bellinger’s opt outs, in my opinion, make it incredibly difficult to trade him. How can teams possibly determine how much to give up when he could be a free agent at the end of 2024, 2025, or 2026?

The good news is they have a deep farm system, so if they decide to add, they can go big for guys with multiple years of club control.

Potential Additions: First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), outfielder Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox), and starting pitcher Garrett Crochet (White Sox).

Potential Subtractions: Relievers Drew Smyly, Héctor Neris, and Jorge López.

Definite Sellers

Washington Nationals (1.0% playoff odds)

Even when they were playing decently, the Nationals’ playoff odds peaked at 3.5% on June 19, and recent poor play has solidified that they’ll be trading players away come July 30.

As they enter a key evaluation period for prospects James Wood and Cade Cavalli (when activated off the IL) as well as tracking the continued development of youngsters MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Luis García Jr., and Jacob Young, they’ll be shedding the rentals and older players from their roster who wouldn’t be a part of the next good Nats squad anyway.

Potential Subtractions: First baseman/outfielder Joey Gallo, outfielder Jesse Winker, utilityman Ildemaro Vargas, starting pitcher Trevor Williams, and relievers Kyle Finnegan, Derek Law, and Dylan Floro.

Colorado Rockies (0.0% playoff odds)

The NL’s version of the Angels, the Rockies probably ought to be trading away more than they will. Instead, they’ll likely do what they usually do: Shop their rentals while convincing themselves that they have what it takes to contend next year.

That said, they’re reportedly at least considering offers for non-rentals, which could lead to a more lucrative deadline than expected.

Potential Subtractions: Catchers Elias Díaz and Jacob Stallings, and starting pitchers Austin Gomber, Cal Quantrill, and Dakota Hudson.

Miami Marlins (0.0% playoff odds)

It’s possible that the Luis Arraez trade will prove to be the biggest the Marlins make this year, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. would fit nicely on many teams, and Tanner Scott could return more than expected depending on what other relievers are available.

Injuries to Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett will keep them out until after the trade deadline, meaning they’ll probably be staying put in Miami.

Potential Subtractions: First baseman Josh Bell, center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr., starting pitcher Trevor Rogers, and relievers Tanner Scott, JT Chargois, A.J. Puk, and Anthony Bender.