Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 1/9/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and happy new year! Welcome to my first chat of 2024 and my first one in… a little while. Between my move and Hall of Fame season it’s been tough to carve out time for these, so my apologies. On that subject, today I’ve got a piece celebrating the 20th anniversary of the introduction of JAWS https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chewing-on-jaws-at-20/. Hopefully tomorrow I’ll have my profile of José Bautista to add to the one-and-done roster. I did Matt Holliday on Friday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-matt…

Guest: I just learned from your JAWS article that you were a designer for children’s books! Any titles you’re particularly proud of from that phase? Who’s in your board book HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I’m most proud of serving as the creative director for the 2002, 2003, and 2004 editions of the World Almanac for Kids. I got to design the covers and oversaw the whole project on the design side. https://www.ebay.com/itm/302336851464?chn=ps&_trkparms=ispr%3D1&amdata…

Jay Jaffe: In 2002 I got to put Venus Williams on the cover, while in 2003 it was Sammy Sosa (oops, but keep in mind these were decided a year in advance).

Jay Jaffe: I also got to do the covers of the 2002 and 2003 World Almanacs

Jay Jaffe: and some cool science textbooks and some dreadful mathbooks.

Kyle DB: HNY! Do u think there’s any chance the Yanks sign Juan Soto to an extension? If not, do u think Soto re-signs with the Yanks in the 2024 off-season?

Jay Jaffe: with free agency looming after this season, I doubt Soto is going to agree to an extension. I’d be somewhat surprised if the Yankees end up signing him as a free agent given Hal Steinbrenner’s skittishness lately, but I wouldn’t rule it out.

Phil: Can you help me understand the sudden handwringing about the Dodgers and deferred payments? Didn’t Scherzer have like 50% of his contract deferred back when he signed with Washington in 2015? Is this just an anti-Dodger thing? Did the amount of deferrals in Ohtani’s contract just wake everyone up to it being a thing teams do?

Jay Jaffe: It’s partly an anti-Dodgers thing, as they’re the Big Bad Spenders shaming your favorite team’s lack of activity, and partially a reaction to the extremes of the Ohtani contract, which TBH should probably be reported at a valuation closer to the way it counts for CBT purposes, which is $46.07 million per year.

Ed: What kind of value does Brett Baty have? Can’t really see him as the centerpiece for a Luzardo, starting to feel reminiscent a bit of Andujar years ago in terms of trade value (without the ~4 win season at 23)

Jay Jaffe: As a 55 FV prospect who scuffled in his rookie season, he’s still got significant value and may yet live up to his above-average regular billing, but you’re right, he’s not going to be a centerpiece in a Luzardo deal.

Jeff Bann: Do u think division realignment is coming within the next 5 years?

Jay Jaffe: yes, probably as part of the expansion to 32 teams.

Morlock Jimenez: Do you think it’s time for bref to update its Black Ink score, maybe open it up to league-leading performances in other categories?

Jay Jaffe: Makes sense.

Grandpa Cole: We just had a lockout in 2022….are we headed for another in 2026? Owners seem ready to fight like they did in 1994

Jay Jaffe: Quite possibly, but why worry about it? Nothing you or I can do other than not buy whatever bullshit the owners and Manfred are shoveling

v2micca: I know that a lot of individuals far smarter than I have stated that if the Braves can get 100 quality innings from Sale in the regular season and an effective few starts in the post season, that they essentially hit the jackpot on this trade.  But, am I just hopelessly biased for my team, or is there a possible world where Sale produces at season that finishes in the top 7 in NL Cy Young voting?  His stuff is still about as good as ever.

Jay Jaffe: Sale had a 106 Stuff+ score and a 3.80 FIP in 102.2 innings. Maybe there’s a sliver of a chance he delivers a sub-3.00 ERA and FIP but I’d guess the innings footprint will be small enough that he won’t get Cy Young votes. AL relievers Bautista and Chris Martin (!?) aside, nobody who didn’t qualify for the ERA title received a CY vote last year

SteveO: If you could unilaterally add one player not currently on the ballot into Hall, who would it be?

Jay Jaffe: Dick Allen

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Poor showing for Utley. Do you think the writers will vote him in by year 10?

Jay Jaffe: Utley’s been named on 45.2% of all ballots in the Tracker and even if that tails off a bit, that’s a very solid start. In case you haven’t been paying attention, we’ve seen some massive comebacks from much lower debut shares. From today’s piece:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: What’s more, setting aside Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling for obvious reasons, the highest share of any player to have never gained entry is just 43.1% from Roger Maris. In last winter’s Tracker poll, I guessed Utley would debut with 17%, so I’m pretty stoked he’ll likely double that, at least.

Tyler: Is it weird that I’m thinking about how you will explain Jose Ramirez’s down year in 2019 and how his agent just told him to start pulling the ball and it worked in ~15 years?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s very likely we’ll be talking about Ramirez in a Hall context around that time. He’s at 45.5/40.2/42.9 in JAWS — that 40 peak score suggests about a 75% likelihood he’ll wind up in the Hall someday — and his 3.1 WAR from 2019 is his seventh-best season, so if he betters that he’s going to get significant traction.

Monique – NY: In your opinion, do you think MLB is headed in a good direction? For a while people were saying the game is dying…is there any truth to that?

Jay Jaffe: i tend not to get too wrapped up in questions like these but the game is on pretty good footing financially, and the 2023 rules changes did improve the on-field product a bit. The RSN situation could shake things up but I think the league is strong enough and creative enough to weather some of the problems. I’m no expert in that area — check out the stuff from FG alum Travis Sawchik at The Score.

Big Time in ’29: So, a lot of hypothetical work that may or may not pan out this year, BUT assuming that unsigned players remain unsigned/choose to retire/etc., the 2029 Hall of Fame Ballot could potentially sport Miguel Cabrera, Clayton Kershaw, Joey Votto, and Zack Greinke (plus Wainwright, who might stick around a la Buerhle, and then Strasburg, Adam Jones, Lorenzo Cain, etc. That’s a lot of lifting there, but as it stands, that’s a whole lot of Player all at once.

Where does that first year list of hypothetical entrants (I see at least two players in there signing with teams later on this offseason) rank all time among first year groups of players on the ballot?

Jay Jaffe: Nothing will top the ballot class of 2013: Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Piazza, Schilling, Sosa, and Lofton. If not for PEDs and, uh, other stuff we could be looking at 7 HOFers from that group.

Jay Jaffe: But yes, that 2029 ballot could be something if none of those guys plays again, though I believe Cabrera is the only one who’s really done.

Anon21: Still writing “2023” on all your chat titles, Jay?

Jay Jaffe: oh FFS

Jay Jaffe: I’ll change that after the chat.

Joaquim: Is there a chance that the dodgers flip Busch and/or Vargas  for controllable, near MLB ready prospects at positions of greater medium-term need? (SS and OF come to mind). I.e. flip them for similar type of player, perhaps with a weaker bat profile but not position-blocked for years to come?

Jay Jaffe: Both of those players are probably down in value a bit after 2023 but yeah, I think that’s possible.

Phil: Dipoto famously said that he shoots to assemble a roster that wins around 54% of its games. The offseason is still young(ish), but would you say he’s on pace for that this year? Seems to me their many moves are full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Jay Jaffe: It seems he’s far more concerned about trimming payroll than shoring up last year’s near-miss squad. The moves aren’t necessarily bad ones, but I don’t see anything bold that’s going to definitely improve the team

Jay Jaffe: in his writeup of the Ray/Haniger and Caballero/Raley trades, Jake Mailhot had a good summary of where the Mariners are at https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mariners-and-rays-each-make-a-pair-of-trad…

Dilly Dog: Should I temper expectations for Grayson Rodriguez? Not expecting the 2.58 ERA he put up after being recalled from the minors but is a 3.50 ERA reasonable?

Jay Jaffe: Dan Szymborski published the Orioles’ ZiPS on November 27 and it included each player’s 80th and 20th percentile projections along with the median one. Rodriguez’s 80th percentile ERA is 3.49 so it’s not unreasonable, just not the most likely outcome.

Guest: Thank you for 20+ years of enlightening work and engaging writing!

Jay Jaffe: And thank you for the kind words.

mike: The Twins have done the least work so far……what do you think they’ll do first?

Jay Jaffe: They’re not in bad shape. Dan published their ZiPS projections today and called them an 85-90 win team https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/

Jay Jaffe: To my eyes they could use another starter and another bat to put into the 1B/corner OF/DH mix

Angelo: Are you surprised at the huge gap in support bw Mauer and Utley? They seem like extremely similar candidates – very high peak, relatively limited number of impactful years. Mauer gets some pass for being a C, but Utley’s career WAR is still ~10 higher and the peak was higher too. I can see how some would select Mauer and not Utley, but it’s hard to imagine that Mauer spending 5 years at the end of his career impersonating James Loney should be the difference in almost double the support

Jay Jaffe: Not really surprised. From the 1-1 pick to the MVP award and the other honors as well as the mega-contract, Mauer was generally appropriately appreciated at a national level even if his contract caused Stockholm Syndrome for a certain share of Twins fans. Utley, who got a later start to his career, never won a Gold Glove, and was bypassed by MVP voters in favor of more popular teammates, was always going to struggle for attention by comparison.

Let’s face it, though, career totals still do have some bearing on Hall of Fame votes, and Utley being short of 2,000 hits while Mauer reached the milestone despite losing a chunk of each season to catching is a notable separator of the two.

Cold Turkey Stearnes: Should the HOF consider increasing the maximum number of players that can be voted for on a single ballot to help clear the backlog?

Jay Jaffe: In 2014, I was on a committee that recommended exactly that, and our middle-of-the-road proposal asked them to increase the ballot size to 12. The Hall tabled our suggestion then, and current ballots are much less crowded by comparison, so I don’t see such a change happening.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: That graph gives you an idea of how much stronger the 2014 ballot — the strongest in modern history — was relative to this year’s.

Marshall: What do you make of Marcus Semien’s HoF chances? He’s putting together a very strong peak, but 2b don’t tend to age gracefully.

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about him last summer in my progress report https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep…. He’s quietly snuck into the picture thanks to some big seasons and is now at 41.8/38.4/40.1. If he remains durable and productive, he’s got a real shot.

Key Flaw: Do you think if every voter’s ballot was published with their name, would it actually do anything? I am all for it, but it seems that all the grumpy voters aren’t ashamed of their grumpiness, and the spotlight wouldn’t shame them into better voting. It is sort of like how the assumption was that people were rude and jerks on the internet because of anonymity, but then Facebook and NextDoor happened and we realized nah…they are still rude and jerks even with their name attached.

Jay Jaffe: I think the effect of publishing every ballot would be minimal, because you’re right, some grumps just want to do performative grumping.

Jay Jaffe: LOOK AT ME, I’M VOTING FOR NOBODY BUT THREE!

Bravos: Hi Jay-  Thanks for everything you’ve done for HOF clarity!  As a Braves fan, I’m wondering if after all of your years of analysis — and some of the results you talk about in your article — make you rethink someone like Dale Murphy.  Better or worse candidate than when he was on the ballot?

Jay Jaffe: A bit better, IMO. I wrote about Murphy at length for last year’s Contemporary Era ballot (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…) and my evolution in thinking. I’d much rather see a high-peak superstar like Murphy in the Hall than a serial compiler DH such as Harold Baines, and think that the positive aspects of his character would be a welcome antidote to some of the icky stuff we’ve been forced to confront annually in the voting.

Cold Turkey Stearnes: How does the makeup of the HOF ballot get decided?  Does everyone with 10+ years of service get a chance on it?  Looking at the 2024 ballot, I see at least nine or ten names who aren’t even worthy of consideration by any measure.  We always get at least one bizarre homer vote because of that.

Jay Jaffe: Everyone who appeared in 10 seasons (not the same as 10 seasons of service time — one game in a season is sufficient) and has been retired for five years is in the pool. Then a 6-member Historical Overview Committee sifts through those; each candidate needs to be nominated by any 2 members of the committee.

Jay Jaffe: Most of those guys won’t make the Hall, but for many, just being on the ballot *is* the honor. And the homer votes, whatever. It was one thing to get bent out of shape when there were 14 JAWS-qualified candidates crowding each other but for the most part, those are pretty harmless and add a bit of color at the margins.

Steve: If you find in your data a player who surpasses the JAWS standards, yet is rarely discussed as an Eras Committee candidate, do you believe it’s worth your time to make the case on his behalf? In other words, is it better to argue for Bobby Grich rather than introduce Joe Schlabotnik into the discussion, with the realization that it would take years for his case to gain momentum?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve made the case for Bobby Grich, to no avail, but that case hasn’t gone away. It’s not like I have to rewrite it every year.

One reason why I do so much mid-career discussion of players’ Hall cases is that I want people to understand what they’re going to be looking at when the time comes to consider them. That, IMO, is part of the legacy of JAWS and my work. That I can write something like I did on Utley and Mauer at the end of the 2018 season (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/retiring-mauer-and-utley-both-worthy-of-co…) hasn’t hurt their causes; I was concerned Utley would follow Grich’s one-and-done path.

Anon21: Do you think the Braves have done enough rotation-fortifying to stay a clear favorite over the Dodgers? Snell or Montgomery would look really nice, and they only cost money!

Jay Jaffe: I’d be a little surprised if they add another spendy starter and think they’ll do something more depth-driven. Maybe another guy like Paxton whom they try to coax 20 starts out of for a lower price.

Rob: Have you done a Shohei JAWS calculation? His career WAR is less than I would have guessed (I might be missing something).

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about Ohtani and JAWS here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep…. He’s at 34.7 now. Even without accounting for his injuries, struggles and the shortened 2020 season, that’s 5.8 WAR per season, and 7.9 per 650 PA. I’m not sure what the hell you expect that’s going to be better than that.

Ohtani is going to be fine, Hall-wise. The stats will be part of the story but the unprecedented success he had in a two-way capacity will be the real driver of his case. And I’m pretty sure he’ll get there.

Izzy: RE: Phil’s question about deferments… judging by the reaction to Bobby Bonilla Day and the Dodgers, I don’t think most fans understand deferments.

Jay Jaffe: Very much no

Key Flaw: Ignoring Vet Committee shenanigans, how much of a boost do you think playing on certain teams (cough…Yankees…) give to a the HoF voting? How much odes playing your whole (or 95%) of your career on one team boost?

Jay Jaffe: Ask Don Mattingly about the Yankee boost. Ask Andy Pettitte. Ask Bernie Williams, David Cone, or David Wells. Do you see them in Cooperstown? No? Then I don’t think playing for the Yankees gives one that big of a boost.

Jay Jaffe: There are players in the Hall from earlier eras who had careers equivalent to those guys, including some Yankees, but it’s been a long time since candidates reaped such advantages.

Eh?: Why is service time manipulation so taboo in baseball but not other sports? In the NHL for example, a team will come out and say they are sending a player to the minors after 9 games in order to not burn a year off of his entry-level contract. If that happened in baseball, the MLBPA would be slamming the grievance button.

Jay Jaffe: Because the MLBPA is a much stronger union.

Brad: Who do you think are some under-the-radar players who have been missing from the Eras Committee ballots?  Vern Stephens is a guy who I always thought never got a fair look.

Jay Jaffe: Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, Dwight Evans, Keith Hernandez, Dave Stieb, David Cone and Brett Saberhagen are guys I’d like to see on Era Committee ballots. Stephens is 32nd among shortstops (46.3/34.4/40.3), which doesn’t really do anything for me; if I want to add an old-time shortstop to the Hall it’s Bill Dahlen.

Sanford: Congrats on 20 years of JAWS, Jay. If you could only make one change to the HOF voting process, would you a) make all ballots public, b) eliminate the 10-player maximum, or c) do something else?

Jay Jaffe: while I would welcome the power to tweak some aspects along the lines you name, the one I want most is a separate recurring ballot devoted only to Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball, evaluated by historians with specific expertise in that area. As it is, they’re part of the Classic Baseball pool along with anyone else — players and execs — who made their biggest impact before 1980.

KC Pain: How do you feel about the pitch clock tweaking?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s necesary.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Maybe I’m just disappointed because I think Utley is an obvious HOFer and 45ish% seems kinda pathetic.

Jay Jaffe: He was never going to get in on the first ballot given the shape of his career.

Craig Breslow: Am I going to regret taking this job?

Jay Jaffe: I just saw that Chaim Bloom was hired by the Cardinals in a front office advisory role. Pick which team you want to do that for in 3-4 years.

Grandpaboy: Let’s assume that (a) the Cubs have roughly $60m to spend, and (b) they’ll eventually sign Bellinger for an AAV of around $25m. How  should they spread out the other $35m…and how do you think they will?

Jay Jaffe: They definitely need starting pitching (they’re 22nd in projected WAR) so a reunion with Stroman makes sense. Or signing Snell. Probably need a stronger 1B option than Mash Mervis, and maybe another 3B option. Justin Turner would be a good fit.

Ty: On a similar note to Marshall’s question, what the likelihood that Corey Seager ends up in the Hall?

Jay Jaffe: he’s a couple beats behind Lindor, Correa, and Semien, so I didn’t include him in the midsummer update, but he’s now got two huge postseasons and a second top-three finish in the MVP voting. If he can stay on the field, he’s got a decent shot but he’s averaged just 96 games over the past six seasons.

HoF: What are the criteria for being a HoF voter?  Can a voter be expelled forom this group and has it ever happened?

Jay Jaffe: You need 10 consecutive years with a BBWAA-affiliated organization to be eligible as a voter. I’m sure there have been members expelled but the only one for whom it was a big public show (at least that I can recall) was when Dan LeBatard was suspended a year and barred from future HOF voting for giving his ballot to Deadspin in 2014. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/10269700/dan-le-batard-barred-futu…

JB: MLB had an article asking who the best player in MLB right now.  Who are your top 5?

Jay Jaffe: In some order: Ohtani, Acuña, Betts and Judge… and then I’m not so sure who I’d put in there. Seager, Freeman, Soto, Semien, Julio Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson? I could name at least half a dozen others but probably not be as convinced any of them belongs as I am of the first four names.

Ben: With increased attention on short-career/high peak with Utley, Wright, and (soon) Buster, what do you think about JR Richard and Doc Gooden?

Jay Jaffe: The two pitchers aren’t in the class of Utley and Buster (Wright is a couple beats behind). Richard had 4 1/2 really good seasons before his stroke but accumulated just 22 WAR. Gooden had 53 WAR but just three seasons worth more than 3.7. He’s just below Pettitte and above Roy Oswalt in S-JAWS, a more plausible candidate but that 12.2-WAR season is the only reason he’d be considered.

CB: Any takeaways from Beltran’s performance so far?  Do you think he gets in a bit quicker than you originally predicted last winter?  Are you concerned that there’s enough moralizing that there’s a firm cap on his level of support (like we’re seeing with Manny and A-Rod)?

Jay Jaffe: I am encouraged that he’s added a net of 12 votes, the most of any candidate, and is polling arount 65%, but I think the possibility of firm resistance is still there. Some % is never going to vote for him.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, it’s been great to get back to this . Thanks so much for some great questions.

Jay Jaffe: Oh, and particularly as it’s the sixth anniversary of my own job interview, I should call attention to our job posting. We’re looking to hire an associate editor to replace Jon Tayler, who has left the fold. Come edit my 4,000-word pieces! Come drink beer at the Winter Meetings! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-is-hiring-seeking-a-full-time-as…

Jay Jaffe: And with that.. I’m off.