Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 7/8/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s jsut get going

Orioles fan: are we gonna be waiting til July 31st for the trade market to really get going again?

Ben Clemens: I think it’ll be more like July 28th or something

Ben Clemens: but yeah… particularly since expanded playoffs, it’s really hard to convince teams to get cooking early

Ben Clemens: everyone wants to know if they’re in or out, which is harder to peg when so many teams are in

Ben Clemens: there’s also this classic negotiation problem. Without a deadline looming, the temptation is always to hold out for a little more

Ben Clemens: “maybe they didn’t send their best offer, maybe someone will get desperate”

Ben Clemens: I think that earlier trades tend to be for players who have more than just this year left on their deals

Matt VW: Is the Yankees’ recent swoon just part of the ups and downs of the season, or is it indicative of some holes that need filling?

Ben Clemens: Yes

Ben Clemens: Look, the Yankee lineup is pretty bad outside two of the best 5 hitters in baseball

Ben Clemens: maybe two of the top two, really

Ben Clemens: when that bad part of the lineup is down, it’s really down

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll be just fine, but we’re definitely looknig at a stars and scrubs team here

Booney: Compared to position players, it looks like fewer and fewer starting pitchers are primed to reach the (admittedly rough) 55-60 WAR threshold for HOF consideration. Overall, do you think WAR is accurately capturing their contributions, and that fewer pitchers deserve to get in? Or do we need to change how we think about these things?

Ben Clemens: I think that WAR is accurately capturing their contributions to winning, yeah

Ben Clemens: More and more pitchers are handling the same total amount of workload

Ben Clemens: so of course the WAR is getting spread out

Ben Clemens: I just don’t think that that means fewer pitchers deserve to get in

Ben Clemens: fame is relative

Ben Clemens: I think that the criteria should be standing out relative to your era

Getting tired of it: Deyvision De Los Santos.  Why does ink have very little to about DDLS?  The man’s stats at age 20 (!!) mirror Yordan Alvarez and in same AA/AAA competition.  thank you.

Ben Clemens: technically he turned 21 a few weeks ago, but I take your point

Ben Clemens: I’m sure that our updtaed prospect lists will have something to say about him, but well, the prospect coverage right now is tilted towards a)finishing every list b)the draft

Ben Clemens: there’s only so much oxygen in the room, you know?

Eli: is there any hope for the free-falling Yankees? And if they collapse and miss the post season, will that finally be enough to force out the Cashman/Boone regime?

Ben Clemens: If they miss the playoffs this year, I do think that the Cashman/Boone regime is probably done

Ben Clemens: but uh, I don’t think they’re missing the playoffs this year

Dan’l: The chance of the Cards selling some pieces (Helsley) is nearly zero now, I assume? Do they have a chance at the worst run differential for a playoff team ever?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so

Ben Clemens: last year’s (!!) Marlins had a -57 run differential

Ben Clemens: that’s the record, and if the Cards play poorly enough to lose another 30-ish runs of scoring differential, it’s highly unlikely that they’re qualifying

Ray: Hi Ben, I play in a 12-team roto where we score the big 5 plus OBP, SLG, and K’s.   I use J. Pederson against RHP and am happy. Been offered C. Walker  lin trade.  Is he and his increased ABs an upgrade over Joc?

Ben Clemens: I’d take Walker, yeah

Guest: Lindor is 4th in MLB in fWAR (among hitters) since the start of 2022. Not a single All-Star appearance in these past three seasons. As a Mets fan/Lindor stan, this makes me sad! He’s a superstar!

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I completely agree with this

Ben Clemens: to be clear, I don’t see what they were gonna do this year

Ben Clemens: Elly De La Cruz actually does deserve the spot

Ben Clemens: like, just on the numbers. and he’s also new and fun

Ben Clemens: Trea Turner is the weak link here, and he got voted in as a starter

Ben Clemens: but Lindor is definitely underrated. I am knee deep in a bunch of projection stuff for trade value and I’m impressed by both what he’s done and how he’s projected to do going forward

Guest: Willi Castro all star snub ?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, though I assume he’ll end up making it with injury replacements taken into account

Ben Clemens: I was sad that my guy Erick Fedde didn’t make it until I decided he’ll probably get in as a replacement

Ben Clemens: pitchers in particular see a ton of attrition

NatsFanDC: Are there hitters who are relatively worse against good pitching? I was talking to a friend who was complaining that his team just can’t hit good pitching. At first I just said, that’s why it’s good pitching, everyone hits worse against it. When I thought about it a little more, there are guys who have had pretty big samples of good hitting at Triple A and just can’t make the shift to the majors. Their numbers just don’t translate as you might expect. Maybe its something to do with expected further development that never comes or a weakness that only gets exposed only at the higher levels, but even if that’s true, someone else’s line might be mediocre vs. good MLB pitching.

Ben Clemens: This was in The Book, and I’ve been thinking about redoing it, particularly in reference to Brent Rooker

Ben Clemens: I haven’t found a lot of evidence that it exists

Ben Clemens: but that doesn’t mean I won’t keep looking

Jim Bob Cooter: Presently Buxton has his third best wRC+ of his career, but still a bit off from his peak… is he back to being great when healthy?

Ben Clemens: I think so? I really don’t know what to make of last year

Ben Clemens: the not playing the field is what really threw me

Marcos: If Justin Steele is actually traded this month, are we talking multiple top-100 types in return?

Ben Clemens: Something along those lines, yes

Ben Clemens: but on the tail end of the 100, 50 FV types

Jim: Even though Pittsburgh hasn’t given up, is it time for the rest of us to give up on Nick Gonzales? Past 30 days saw him bat .232 with 1 each (HR/SB) and didn’t reach double-digits for RBI or R.  Drop for Schuemann, M.Rojas, Caballero, B.Rodgers?

Ben Clemens: mmmm…. I think I’d hold onto him over those options

Ben Clemens: but most interested in switching for Schuemann

Ben Clemens: the Pirates not giving up is I think a good sign

shortstop: Who should the Angels unequivocally not trade? O’Hoppe, Neto, Soriano, Detmers? I think everyone else should be fair game.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’d say even those guys should probably be on the block, I just think that O’Hoppe and Neto are probably more of offseason trade pieces

Ben Clemens: we’re still in burn it to the ground and rebuild mode, I’d say

AL Central Casting: Will we ever go back to a time when the strike zone isn’t superimposed on televised games? Would you prefer that? Maybe used only for replay? Or eventually an option viewers can toggle on or off?

Ben Clemens: I’d like no strike zone

Ben Clemens: but an option would be ideal, I agree

Ben Clemens: I just find I enjoy the game a little more when I’m deciding if it’s a strike instead of the tv

Matt: How do you think about the Nationals and their rebuild, especially MacKenzie Gore?  He has great pedigree but still hasn’t seem to put it all togehter?

Ben Clemens: “what do you think of MacKenzie Gore” is a question I’ve been mulling over a TON in recent weeks

Ben Clemens: i mean, he’s been great this year, and the pedigree is there

Ben Clemens: the stuff is there too. I think I called him a Clayton Kershaw starter kit once and I stick to that broad comparison

Matt: Speaking about high pedigree SPs who haven’t put it all together yet…what do you think about MacKenzie Gore and Nick Lodolo (this year and next)?

Ben Clemens: So, these two things are not like the other. Gore has been really good this year!

Ben Clemens: 3.83 ERA despite a .369 BABIP against

Ben Clemens: Lodolo has been solid as well, albeit in less starts

Ben Clemens: I’m more optimistic on Gore, but I’ve kind of always been more optimistic on Gore

Ben Clemens: I think that both of them are so talented that I’m willing to believe they’ve turned the corner with less evidence than your average pitcher, though

darrenasu: The M’s appear to be trying to set records in offensive futility. (kidding, but barely). What’s a realistic trade that moves the needle sufficiently for them? I’m thinking Jazz Chisholm for Cole Young and a lottery ticket. He’s not a superstar but would immediately be their best hitter and plays two positions the M’s are terrible at. Thoughts?

Ben Clemens: yeah, Jazz to the Mariners makes a lot of sense to me

Ben Clemens: as ever, the Mariners badly need a second baseman

Guest: By BaseRuns, the Phillies are the best team in the NL.  Would you take them as more likely to reach the World Series than the Dodgers?

Ben Clemens: nah, I’ll still take the Dodgers. I think both will get round one byes, and I think it’s really close, to be clear, but I just like the Dodgers’ talent a bit more

Ghost of Wade Boggs: Hypothetical rule change time! Pretend for a minute that baseball imposed a rule in which a team could field 9 DHs. In conjunction, 8 additional roster spots would be granted so as not to affect pitching configurations.

The obvious consequence of this is that it would be assumed that offensive production throughout the league would go up. But it would have to be assumed that defensive quality would increase as well. The question is, what do you think would happen to the overall run scoring in the league if both of those components were to increase dramatically and simultaneously?

Ben Clemens: I think scoring would go up meaningfully

Ben Clemens: defense exerts less influence on the game than hitting

Ben Clemens: because it only matters on the subset of plate appearances that end in fieldable batted balls

Derek: Lindor is like, a 99% shot to replace Mookie, right?

Ben Clemens: Unless I am misunderstanding, Mookie has already been replaced

Ben Clemens: hm, now I’m not sure

Ben Clemens: but yes, I think that Lindor is really high in the replacement hierarchy

Jaded Mariners fan: Do the Mariners have a special talent for turning hitters bad? Thinking about Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Kolten Wong, Adam Frazier, Teoscar Hernandez, Jesse Winker just in the past few years. But it’s a trend that goes back to Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins in the mid 2000s.

Ben Clemens: Some of these don’t make sense to me

Ben Clemens: like, Wong went there when he was already on the extreme downswing, Frazier had one good year in 2021 but hasn’t been especially good ever

Ben Clemens: Wong had a pretty good 2022, but I dunno, everyone seemed to agree the writing was on the wall

Ben Clemens: Winker, no argument there

Ben Clemens: I do think that hitters don’t like hitting in TMobile

guest: Is there any truth to teams that score a lot of runs via the HR ball, struggle in the post-season? Because apparently, the Orioles score too many runs via the HR ball for a contingent of the fanbase. Cold weather, better pitching, blah, blah, blah.

Ben Clemens: there is not. When Ben Lindbergh investigated this, he found that teams that score more of their runs via the homer actually do slightly BETTER than you’d expect in the playoffs

J: Cubs should be shopping Taillon, no? They won’t get any return, but someone probably would want him even with that contract, and the Cubs would love not to owe him $36 million over the next two years.

Ben Clemens: yeah, I’m sure they will be

Broken Bat: Could Dodgers be interested with his multi year salary in Dansby? Couldn’t Cubs start the unload by maybe getting River Ryan, once their 2 top rated catchers. To me they ( Dodger side) are spare parts.They help their pitchers with Swanson at SS? plausible?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think the Cubs want to trade Swanson

Ben Clemens: full no trade, seems to like Chicago, his wife plays there too

C-Low: Would Gunnar’s all around value be enough to surpass Judge as the MVP if the season ended today?

Ben Clemens: No

Ben Clemens: I mean…. maybe he’d deserve it? depends on how you think about what deserve means

Ben Clemens: but Judge would win if the season ended today and they had a vote

Raymond: How has Seattle been in first place for this long with an offense this bad? As an O’s fan, I didn’t actually realize how awful that lineup was until this past series. When Julio isn’t hitting, there genuinely isn’t a good hitter anywhere in that lineup?

Ben Clemens: their offense is SHOCKINGLY bad

Ben Clemens: i think Josh Rojas is a ‘good hitter’

Ben Clemens: Cal Raleigh too

Ben Clemens: not great, but winning teams have dudes like those

Ben Clemens: but yeah, woof. it’s just an all pitching squad

Kirk: George Kirby should be an all star. I’m offended by his omission. Do you think he gets added later?

Ben Clemens: I do, and I’m also surprised he didnt’ make it

Guest: Which team’s young core would you rather have: Reds (Elly, Greene, McLain, Lodolo, etc.) or Pirates (Oneil, Jones, Skenes, Hayes, etc.)?

Ben Clemens: Reds

Ben Clemens: It’s not cut and dry, but I think that the Pirates might have no core young hitters

Ben Clemens: I’ll side with the hitter-heavier side in general

Guards won!: Bibee All-Star snub?  Would like to see our ace in the ASG!

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll end up making it

Princess Leia: Help us Obi-Wan Clemonobi! Royce Lewis is lost. Again.

Ben Clemens: it’s so miserable

Ben Clemens: I was talking to Meg about this last week when I was trying to figure out if he was a top 50 trade value guy

Ben Clemens: and literally WHILE I was talking about it he got hurt

Ben Clemens: can’t make this stuff up

Harmon Ripkowski: Yankees all time outfield, Aaron Judge is…top 3, top 6,…?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s lower than 4th

Ben Clemens: so the question is basically order Judge, Mantle, DiMaggio

Ben Clemens: and yeah, I have him fourth

Guest: how do you think teams should evaluate Jordan Walker at this point? He’s so young that he’s obviously not totally hopeless or anything, but at the same time he’s struggling badly in AAA right now

I strongly think he will still be in the Cards’ org in August, but I wonder if all parties would be best served if another team was given a chance to fix him. Or should the Cardinals give him another year?

Ben Clemens: The offers the Cards get for him are going to be extreme lowballs

Ben Clemens: which is wise, to be clear

Ben Clemens: I think he would probably be best served with a new org, I don’t have a lot of great examples for you of the Cardinals succeeding in this particular type of prospect dev

Ben Clemens: but I think that’s a hard trade to make, it’s always tough to sell low

Will: Emmanuel Clase + some throw ins to the Cubs for Justin Steele, fair or unfair?

Ben Clemens: I would not do this trade if I were the Cubs

J: Since the start of last year, Justin Steele is 8th among all pitchers in WAR and he’s got 3 years of control left after this. I really think they’d laugh at 2 50 FV types and that you are badly undervaluing him.

Ben Clemens: i mean, perhaps

Ben Clemens: if that’s the case, I don’t think he’s getting traded

Ben Clemens: which is probably the right thing for the Cubs

Ben Clemens: I have a big old slug of controllable pitching all tiered together in trade value at the moment

Ben Clemens: and either he, Grayson Rodriguez, or Jared Jones is the headliner of that tier

Ben Clemens: I think that all of them are pretty dang exciting

Princess Leia: You’re brother in name, Ben Rice, done good this weekend!

bosoxforlife: Ben Rice gave you plenty of stuff for your 5 things I liked (or didn’t like) last week. His loafing badly on Friday probably cost the Yankees the game then hits 3 HR’s on Saturday.

Ben Clemens: gotta love a fellow Ben helping me out

davealden53: I recall you being enthusiastic about Eguy Rosario.  He’s now back at AAA after only a handful of MLB at-bats.  But I understand the Padres not seeing a position to play him.  What’s his future?  Learn a different position?  Trade bait?

Ben Clemens: trade bait I think

Guest: Have you or others you know looked into the discrepancy between Masson Miller rookie status? Appears to be differences between a few reliable sources.

Ben Clemens: He’s eligible

Ben Clemens: https://x.com/unofficialAB/status/1788587331835858951

Ben Clemens: it’s an extreme corner case

Ben Clemens: where he had exactly few enough days, but on a day where he was placed on the IL, a few sites counted him as also being on the active roster that day

Summer of George: Julio Rodriguez, traded at deadline?

Ben Clemens: I….

Ben Clemens: no

wheelhouse: i think anthony volpe has turned into the worst hitter in baseball. or at least he’s tied with like 5 other yankees who play every game

Ben Clemens: Yankees fans are the best

Guest: While we discuss Walker, what about Torkelson? This was quite the disappointment this season. I wonder if he’s progressing in Monroe but doesn’t appear as so on the stat line.

Ben Clemens: same deal

Ben Clemens: he could probably use a change of scenery but no one’s gonna deal something of import for him

Guest: More BaseRuns fun (or BaseFuns, if you will):  The Red Sox have a better BaseRuns record than the Yankees.  And yet they still might sell at the trade deadline?  Does that actually happen?

Owen: The Red Sox can’t be sellers at this point, right? What would you target in their position?

Ben Clemens: I think that the Red Sox will be marginal buyers

Ben Clemens: I agree, can’t sell here

Matt VW: No Ruth in the all time Yankees outfield?

Ben Clemens: no he’s just an inarguable number one

Ben Clemens: so the question is how to rank two through four

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Mike: Max Kepler and Julien to the M’s for their top prospect and another good prospect or two.

Ben Clemens: I’m a big Harry Ford guy, so I’d probably try to make this trade work differently, but I like the general concept

Ben Clemens: I guess the weird part is, why are the Twins selling?

David: Re: NYY Stars and Scrubs, lest we forget BOS last title came off this formula. Well, Pearce going nuts may dispute that but I digress

Ben Clemens: that’s part of the stars and scrubs construction, though

Ben Clemens: if you do stars and scrubs and one of your scrubs gets hot, you’re unbeatable

Gajacket: If you were AA for the Braves, who and what would you target over the next few weeks? I know a healthy Harris adds some hope at the back of the lineup, but what do you do about Arcia and the other 6-9 who have been lackluster?

Ben Clemens: I call up my friends in Toronto and see if Bo Bichette wants to play in Atlanta

Ben Clemens: seems like the ‘oh we just don’t care about shortstop’ plan is fiiiiinally catching up to the braves

Key Flaw: The Orioles seem to be developing their prospects into better defenders than expected. Gunnar was expected to move to 3rd and not handle SS, but he has become a good defensive SS. Westburg was iffy as a defensive infielder, but the metrics like him. Cowser was a tweener, but looks great as a CF.

Ben Clemens: Yep, completely agree

Ben Clemens: it’s really interesting. I’ve noticed that ZiPS has been more bullish on each guy defensively than the scouting view

Ben Clemens: when I watch Westburg, I see it. I’m not sure I do with Cowser

Ben Clemens: but yeah, they definitely seem good at this

tortycraig: Robert or Crochet – who makes more sense for the Cardinals to target? Don’t think they will for either ofc, but assuming each trade is something like Scott, Hence, McGreevy/Graceffo, flyer, flyer or Walker, Graceffo, flyer

Ben Clemens: if the same package gets Robert or Crochet, I’d take Robert and I think it’s not actually that close

Ben Clemens: you get an extra year of team control. you also get someone who has done it for more than 3 months

Ben Clemens: Crochet is gonna be a big trade chip but controllable hitting is just so valuable

Guest: Do you think Mayo gets moved for pitching, say to Seattle? His AAA numbers look great. Do you think any of the OF options getted moved too?

Ben Clemens: I think that the Mariners are just not gonna trade their pitching

Ben Clemens: even if it might make sense theoretically

John: Don’t the Mariners and Cardinals lineup great for a trade?  What would it take for the Cards to get a Kirby or Gilbert?

Ben Clemens: It would take way too much

Ben Clemens: like, start with Masyn Winn

Ben Clemens: then add

Ben Clemens: and for my money, Masyn Winn is the most valuable Cardinals player

Ben Clemens: actually, I don’t think that’s particularly debatable

Ben Clemens: these trades where contending teams subtract just don’t really happen

Guest: Should Nolan jones be dropped everywhere

Ben Clemens: yeah

Guest: What team will get the most contributions from players currently on their IL or minor league teams? Who will improve the most without trades?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s probably the Rangers

Ben Clemens: all that pitching

Ikko: Reynaldo Lopez’s four-seamer has the highest run value of any pitch in MLB. However, he doesn’t get tons of whiffs on it, doesn’t get incredible extension, allows lots of hard contact on it, etc. How is that pitch so good at suppressing run expectancy? Is it just blind luck? Not sure what all goes into run value calculations.

Ben Clemens: run value calculations, at least ours, are blindingly simple

Ben Clemens: you take the RE before the pitch

Ben Clemens: you take it after the pitch

Ben Clemens: that’s it

Ben Clemens: i guess we use wOBA, but like, it’s very cut and dry

Ben Clemens: in our version of pitch values his fastball is 10th best

Ben Clemens: you can look at pitchingbot and stuff+ if you want to dive in a bit deeper

Ben Clemens: they’re both on player pages now!

Ben Clemens: both of them think it’s below-average on pure stuff, but that he has plus location

Ben Clemens: that’s pretty close to how I feel about it

Richie: Bill James looked at it and decided Craig Biggio did absolutely dominate the bad pitchers and really struggled against the good ones pretty much though the entirety of his career.

Ben Clemens: Obviously, some players have done this

Ben Clemens: the question is whether you can do more than identify it retroactively

Ben Clemens: I think it’s along the same lines as clutch

Ben Clemens: clearly, some players have been clutch

Ben Clemens: it’s less clear that you can figure out who will be clutch next year

John: Those are all great points.  What about if the Blue Jays decide to move Gausman?  Tho, Mo was quoted downplaying the need for another SP citing Graceffo and McGreevy at AAA.  Which is insulting to the fans, but par for the course.

Ben Clemens: yeah, this one makes sense to me, I could see the Cards trading a reasonable haul for a playoff-caliber starter

Ben Clemens: they could go for Kikuchi if they’re more interested in value than pure high end

Adam Jones: If the Orioles traded for 3 pitchers by the deadline, who should they be? Break em up between starters and relievers as you wish.

Ben Clemens: Garrett Crochet, Tanner Scott, Erick Fedde

Ben Clemens: I think that Crochet and Scott just make a ton of sense

Ben Clemens: and then I landed on Fedde b/c maybe they do a package deal with Crochet

Smokin’ Jim Leyland: Is Colt Keith ascending? If you excise March and April, his triple slash line from May 1 to present is a respectable-for-a-rookie .291/.326/.460, with a 120 WRC+. Progress or noise?

Ben Clemens: yeah, I agree

Ben Clemens: respectable-for-a-rookie, that’s just a good line

Ben Clemens: .460 slug, in this economy?

Ben Clemens: leaguewide slugging is below .400 this year

Ben Clemens: it’s outrageous

Ben Clemens: .460 in Comerica, my goodness

tortycraig: Emerson Hancock for Gorman works re: mariners / cardinals, but I think Cardinals say no

Ben Clemens: this is along the lines of a Cards/Mariners trade that could get done

Ben Clemens: I like this idea, I think that the Cards probably would say no? Gorman is part of their everyday lineup

Ben Clemens: but I think I’d say yes

Ben Clemens: I think that enough of Gorman’s production can be replaced by rotating utility types that they should try to go get some pitching

Gronch: Will the Giants sell? Should they?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go with no and no

Ben Clemens: I think there’s basically no chance that they sell given team construction

Ben Clemens: and I think that’s reasonable. sure, they’re not in playoff position, but they’re not far out of it

Ben Clemens: and I don’t see any obvious thing that selling the marginal pieces would do

Dan: If teams could field 9 DHs wouldn’t they chose not too? Maybe eventually they would but the list of top (9*30) 270 hitters in the world has a fair amount of overlap with the top (8*30) 240 fielders in the world, at least for the near term, right?

Ben Clemens: yeah, I agree wiht this, but a lot more DH’s would see play

Pat: If Detroit decides to trade Skubal, does that mean they should also try to move Riley Greene? If you’re tearing it down…

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so. I think they should be trying to sign Greene to an extension

Ben Clemens: when are you hoping to compete if you perpetually trade your good players?

Ben Clemens: Greene is a great reminder that sometimes the top prospects take a while to click

Pat: Torkelson for Walker challenge trade! Now that would be interesting.

Ben Clemens: oh heck yeah

Ben Clemens: bring it on

AK: You think Jed Hoyer could potentially do something dumb trade wise trying to save his job? I think his contract is up after ’25.

Ben Clemens: I don’t, I think he seems very buy the book

Josh: Looking at batted ball data – will use Altuve as an example. Avg exit velo, bat speed, and hard hit % are all bad. But the sweet spot % is great. What do I take from that? Can being really good at one of these cover up for the ones that are bad?

Ben Clemens: yeah, I think that guys with really good bat control (altuve, Jose Ramirez, Paredes, Arenado) really confound the statcast sliders

Harmon Ripkowski: Maybe Edgar Martinez or Alvin Davis can still rake

Ben Clemens: I think we solved it

Oneil Cruz: I have quietly been a capable defensive shortstop this year

Ben Clemens: quietly, with loud tools

Ben Clemens: I think we’d be talking more about Oneil Cruz if a)the Pirates offense weren’t so poor overall b)Elly De La Cruz weren’t doing it better

Harmon Ripkowski: If Vince got on base as much as Rickey, would he have the single season steals record?

Ben Clemens: Very likely

Blake: Been thinking about handedness splits. And what carries more weight; stats for the pitcher or for the batter. Like Yordan Alvarez is a lefty with pretty much no platoon disadvantage to lefty pitchers (161 wRC+ against lefties, 166 against righties in his career). But lefty relievers constantly get brought into face him, and often fail. Or that righties would pump changeups to him (he set the record of most changeups hit for a HR in a season with 12 since pitch tracking started in 2008). Did those pitchers’ platoon splits actually give them a better shot? Or do the batters’ numbers carry more weight?

Ben Clemens: pitcher’s numbers carry more weight

Ben Clemens: hitter numbers are’nt meaningless

Ben Clemens: but they are compiled against a broad range of pitchers with a broad range of pitches

Ben Clemens: whereas pitchers with certain arsenals (killer slider, weird delivery fastball) can be great against same handed types

Ben Clemens: it’s one of these ‘what terrible option do you want to take?’ things when you’re choosing which reliever to bring in agaisnt Alvarez

Richie: I don’t get it. Why should a playoff team trade for Crochet now, when he’ll have to be shut down darn soon, innngs-wise?

Ben Clemens: I keep hearing that it wouldn’t necessarily be the case

Worried in Seattle: Bryan Woo for Luis Robert – who says no?

Ben Clemens: I think that the WHite Sox say no

Ben Clemens: it wouldn’t shock me if both teams say no, because again, the Mariners value their pitching very highly

Ben Clemens: but I can’t see the Sox doing that

Thomas: Ben, have you checked out Arcs, the new board game hotness? Played it yesterday and its excellent

Ben Clemens: i haven’t

Ben Clemens: let’s take a look

Ben Clemens: wow, heavy space battle, sounds fun to me

Ben Clemens: I actually played Arc Nova (similar name, very different) for the first time last week

Ben Clemens: i LOVED it

Ben Clemens: highly recommend if you like Terraforming Mars style games

Calvin: The yanks FO likes tanner Scott but It looks like he’s way over performing and once he regressed would be a fifth option out of the pen. Should I be happy if we land him?

Ben Clemens: I mean, if you think you’re getting a 1.4 ERA pitcher, you’ll be disappointed

Ben Clemens: if you think you’re gtting a 30% strikeout rate guy who will probably walk too many, which is a reasonable late inning statline, you’ll be just fine

Thomas: Ark Nova is cool. Not my favourite style of game, but I enjoyed the action mechanism and the overlapping score tracks

Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s a very clever rendition of that style. Also I’m a big theme guy, and the theme really clicked for me

Worried in Seattle: I read the Mariners are the favorites to get Jazz. Are the Marlins going to want a superstar price for him? He’s been fine this year, but he hasn’t come close to being a superstar.

Ben Clemens: They might WANT a superstar price, but they aren’t going to get one

Ben Clemens: 104 wRC+ over the last 2 years and 750 PA. definitely some injury risk. 2.5 years of team control remaining

Ben Clemens: how much better is Jazz as a trade chip than Luis Arraez was before the year?

Ben Clemens: I think I’d rather trade for Arraez, tbh

Ben Clemens: and he did not get a superstar return

NAT: What parts of their future rotation do the Nats have in Gore, Irvin, Parker, Gray & Herz?

Ben Clemens: I’m all the way out on Gray

Ben Clemens: I’m all the way in on Gore

Ben Clemens: I say they h it on 1 of 3 of the other guys, a reasonable clip, and everyone’s happy

Ben Clemens: other FanGraphs writers, if you’re reading this, keep your grubby paws off of DJ Herz, I want to write about him sometime soon

Colton: Do you have an idea of what the ‘correct’ trade off is between contact and power in any of your research? Some guys, like Rooker, it pays to just empty the tank every time and some guys take the trade off, Bellinger, and it works out. Staring and Suwinski’s page and it makes my brain hurt, I feel like I say that every week in one of these chats lol

Ben Clemens: I’ve always wondered about this and it’s a really hard thing to figure out

Ben Clemens: basically I don’t think it’s easy to tease out from the statistics

Ben Clemens: because it depends a lot on perception and hand eye coordination

bosoxforlife: Since they all can’t play do you prefer Kierstad or Cowser?

Ben Clemens: Cowser but with a low confidence level

Guest: What kind of return would Bo Bichette fetch right now?  It seems like this would be a prototypical case of selling low of the Jays trade him.

Ben Clemens: I’m VERY excited to hear what teams think about where I put Bichette on my preliminary list

Ben Clemens: it would definitely be selling low

Ben Clemens: but on the other hand, let’s say you’re a playoff contender with a hole at shortstop

Ben Clemens: the Braves, let’s say, or if the Dodgers decide to move Betts to second to ease the burden on him, then

Ben Clemens: them*

Ben Clemens: I dunno, maybe some more peripheral contenders too

Ben Clemens: do you really want to trade for someone who you’re mostly hoping will lead you to the promised land this year

Ben Clemens: when he’s hitting .225/.279/.326?

Ben Clemens: now, I think he’s better than that obv

Ben Clemens: but… are you confident he’ll fix it immediately?

Ben Clemens: and you really do need the next two months to be really good to get value out of trading for him, it’s not like hte Jays are trading him for a song

Ben Clemens: I was on Blake Murphy’s excellent radio show this morning and he asked a version of this quesiton

Ben Clemens: I’d prefer to trade for Vlad over Bo at the moment, which is different than where I’ve been for the past few years

Farhandrew Zaidman: Are you boarding the Gavin Stone for ROY hype train, or do Skenes and Shota have that locked up already?

Ben Clemens: don’t write Yamamoto off just yet

Ben Clemens: but Skenes should be the odds on favorite imo

Farhandrew Zaidman: feels like the balance of power of impact rookies has switched from position players to pitchers. Should we consider splitting ROY into the Jackie Robinson Award (position players) and the Fernando Valenzuela Award (pitchers)?

Ben Clemens: eh…. i think it’s cyclical, and that it’s too early to say that with much confidence

Ben Clemens: just last year we were looking at an endless string of generational hitting prospects winning awards

Colton: Cavalli still has a shot to be the best of that Nats bunch, just saying

Ben Clemens: I don’t agree

Ben Clemens: but I think he has a shot to betowards the top

Ben Clemens: I just think Gore is really good

Ben Clemens: alright, I gotta get back to the grindstone and get started on something for tomorrow

Ben Clemens: have a great week, everyone, and in two weeks’ time I’m excited to be talking about the same trade chips, but iwth more urgency