Arizona Diamondbacks Top 46 Prospects
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here.
Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Corbin Carroll | 21.4 | A+ | CF | 2023 | 60 |
2 | Alek Thomas | 21.7 | AAA | CF | 2022 | 55 |
3 | Jordan Lawlar | 19.0 | R | SS | 2025 | 50 |
4 | Geraldo Perdomo | 22.2 | MLB | SS | 2022 | 50 |
5 | Ryne Nelson | 24.0 | AA | SP | 2022 | 45+ |
6 | Blake Walston | 20.6 | A+ | SP | 2024 | 45+ |
7 | Brandon Pfaadt | 23.3 | AA | SP | 2023 | 45+ |
8 | Drey Jameson | 24.4 | AA | SP | 2023 | 45 |
9 | Deyvison De Los Santos | 18.6 | A | 3B | 2024 | 45 |
10 | Slade Cecconi | 22.6 | A+ | SP | 2024 | 45 |
11 | Bryce Jarvis | 24.1 | AA | SP | 2024 | 45 |
12 | Luis Frías | 23.7 | MLB | SIRP | 2022 | 45 |
13 | Tommy Henry | 24.5 | AA | SP | 2023 | 45 |
14 | Kristian Robinson | 21.1 | A | RF | 2024 | 45 |
15 | A.J. Vukovich | 20.5 | A+ | 1B | 2025 | 40+ |
16 | Adrian Del Castillo | 22.3 | A | C | 2025 | 40+ |
17 | Manuel Pena | 18.1 | R | 3B | 2026 | 40+ |
18 | Jeison Guzmán | 23.3 | AA | SS | 2022 | 40+ |
19 | Seth Beer | 25.3 | MLB | DH | 2022 | 40 |
20 | Conor Grammes | 24.5 | A+ | SIRP | 2023 | 40 |
21 | Ryan Bliss | 22.1 | A | 2B | 2025 | 40 |
22 | Alvin Guzman | 20.2 | R | CF | 2024 | 40 |
23 | Abdidas De La Cruz | 17.2 | R | SS | 2027 | 40 |
24 | Joe Elbis | 19.3 | A | SP | 2024 | 40 |
25 | Jake McCarthy | 24.5 | MLB | CF | 2022 | 40 |
26 | Stuart Fairchild | 25.8 | MLB | CF | 2022 | 40 |
27 | Edwin Uceta | 24.0 | MLB | SP | 2022 | 40 |
28 | Cooper Hummel | 27.1 | AAA | C | 2022 | 40 |
29 | Jorge Barrosa | 20.9 | A+ | CF | 2023 | 40 |
30 | Juan Corniel | 19.3 | R | SS | 2026 | 40 |
31 | Dominic Canzone | 24.4 | AA | RF | 2023 | 40 |
32 | Neyfy Castillo | 20.9 | A | 1B | 2024 | 40 |
33 | Humberto Mejía | 24.9 | MLB | SP | 2022 | 40 |
34 | Jhosmer Alvarez | 20.6 | A | SIRP | 2023 | 35+ |
35 | Jose Herrera | 24.9 | AAA | C | 2022 | 35+ |
36 | Ryan Weiss | 25.1 | AAA | MIRP | 2022 | 35+ |
37 | Jake Rice | 24.5 | A+ | SIRP | 2025 | 35+ |
38 | Kyle Nelson | 25.5 | MLB | MIRP | 2022 | 35+ |
39 | Keegan Curtis | 26.3 | AAA | SIRP | 2022 | 35+ |
40 | Mitchell Stumpo | 25.6 | AAA | SIRP | 2023 | 35+ |
41 | Levi Kelly | 22.7 | AA | MIRP | 2023 | 35+ |
42 | Justin Martinez | 20.5 | A | MIRP | 2024 | 35+ |
43 | Yaifer Perdomo | 20.4 | A | SIRP | 2024 | 35+ |
44 | Buddy Kennedy | 23.3 | AA | 3B | 2022 | 35+ |
45 | Blaze Alexander | 22.6 | A+ | SS | 2023 | 35+ |
46 | Jacob Steinmetz | 18.5 | R | SP | 2026 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Rattlers with Rattlers
Yerald Nin, SS
J.J. D’Orazio, C
Alberto Ciprian, 3B
Gavin Conticello, LF
Liam Norris, LHP
Diomede Sierra, LHP
Jeferson Espinal, CF
Avery Short, LHP
Wilderd Patino, CF
The teenage shortstop Nin signed for $900,000 just a few days before publication. He’s long-term fit at shortstop thanks to plus hands and actions, and he has a good-looking left-handed swing. D’Orazio, 20, was the other PTBNL from the Joakim Soria deal, a long-levered catcher with nearly average raw power right now, and room for more. He struggled on defense during Eric’s Complex looks, though he was catching a whole new staff at that time. Ciprian, the other part of the Eduardo Escobar trade with Milwaukee, is a super buff teenager with big present power. He is likely to fall toward the bottom of the defensive spectrum. Conticello, 18, is a big-framed lefty stick with above average bat speed who is a six-figure high school sleeper from the 2021 draft. He’s probably destined for left field. Norris, 20, was an overslot high school draftee with vertical action stuff and poor control, which hasn’t improved yet in pro ball. His stuff has a more typical power reliever look than Sierra, also 20, a lateral action lefty in the low-90s who occasionally flashes a plus breaking ball. Espinal, 19, is a 70 runner whose swing has stiffened and lost something over the last year. He’s had BABIP-driven surface level performance but doesn’t look like a viable hitter right now. Short was another backspinning fastball overslot high schooler with 30-grade velo, and he’s still sitting about 88 mph. Patino, 20, has power and speed but his pitch recognition seems to have bottomed out in full-season ball.
Bench Bat Types
Tim Tawa, 2B
C.J. Chatham, SS
Dominic Miroglio, C
Dominic Fletcher, RF
Eduardo Diaz, RF
Tawa is the furthest from the big leagues of this group having just been drafted out of Stanford in the 11th round. He was an athletic multi-sport high schooler who had a great freshman season and then was largely solved. He’s got above-average raw power and has experience playing all over the field, so he could realistically become a power-over-hit guy who teams try to hide at a couple different positions. Chatham has been in the minors for a while now and generally performs close to league average while playing a passable shortstop. He’s been with Boston and Philly the last two years. Miroglio is also thought of as a pretty standard Triple-A depth catcher who can catch and throw. Fletcher and Diaz turned out to be corner guys with problematic plate discipline.
Relief Arms
Brandyn Sittinger, RHP
Jesús Liranzo, RHP
Matt Mercer, RHP
Junior Mieses, RHP
Sittinger is another of Arizona’s many Indy ball signees to reach the big leagues. He’s wild but not so wild that his 95-and-a-slider cocktail can’t bag him a few more big league per diems over the next several years. Liranzo runs the gas into the upper-90s with sink and his slider spins at about 2500 rpm, an intriguing combination undercut by 20 command. Mercer is rehabbing from TJ but was a mid-90s four-pitch relief prospect at peak. Mieses sat 93-95 mph as a 20-year-old but hasn’t developed passable control.
Athletic Spot-Start Types
Mack Lemieux, LHP
Scott Randall, RHP
Matt Tabor, RHP
Tyler Holton, LHP
Lemieux, 25, uses all three of his offerings pretty frequently. Both his two-seamer and late-biting curve should induce groundballs, and his fading change is a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch against righties. It isn’t a sexy bullpen profile, but if you can get groundballs in Reno, you can get ’em anywhere. Randall is an athletic righty just drafted this year out of Sacramento State with a 40 fastball and 60 changeup. Tabor sat in a 45 FV tier for forever waiting for his fastball to develop, and it still averaged 88 mph in 2021, but he throws enough strikes to be starting pitcher 7-10 in an org. Holton has been sitting 88-90 with a good changeup since returning from TJ.
System Overview
The Diamondbacks were under the thumb of misfortune, controversy, scandal, and awful baseball throughout 2021. Whether it was arena unrest, Jared Porter, the fallout from Kristian Robinson’s 2020 arrest, shoulder injuries to Corbin Carroll and Jordan Lawlar, Ketel Marte’s hamstring woes, Madison Bumgarner’s contract, or Roland Hemond’s passing, the Diamondbacks have absorbed constant and varied punishment (some of it self-inflicted) as an org since the start of the pandemic. But even with misfortune befalling some of them, the prospects we’ve projected to be impact players have started to arrive, with Daulton Varsho seemingly turning a corner late in 2021. Others should start to take root in the big leagues this year, lead by Alek Thomas and most likely followed by some of the pitching in the 45+/45 FV tiers. There is already an interesting contingent of young, complementary players in place ahead of this star-driven core. The Diamondbacks seem to like the notion of mix-and-match platoons enabled by defensive versatility, with Josh Rojas and Pavin Smith in place as bat-first cogs, while the 40 FV hitters in their mid-20s give Arizona a lot of short-term options with which to surround them.
Is it time to trade Ketel Marte? He has performed when healthy, but for huge chunks of each of the past two years, he hasn’t been. The added mass that suddenly made Marte a fearsome power hitter has perhaps tightened up his lower half. He’s been mistake prone in center field at times, but is still just two years removed from a 7-WAR season, and switch-hitters with this kind of power and defensive versatility don’t really exist. Marte effectively has three years left on his contract, with two club options at about $11 million per. Miami (a frequent trade partner for Arizona in the past, as the two seem to value different types of players, or at least used to) and Philadelphia are both motivated parties looking for center field upgrades.
The D-backs have either been in an explicit rebuild mode or been straddling a neutral part of the competitive spectrum for a while now, so they’ve made lots of trades that help reveal the player attributes they tend to like. Arizona has been more willing to acquire complex-level talent than any other team in baseball. Just a few trades involving players below full-season ball have been consummated over the last couple of years, and many of them have involved the Diamondbacks. Arizona also gravitates toward short-levered lefty hitters and switch-hitters, and we mentioned earlier that they seem to like catchers who can play elsewhere. Right up there with Milwaukee, Arizona has had some interesting Indy ball finds in the past, with David Peralta easily headlining the list.
It’s possible this club is not good at player dev, especially on the pitching side. It’s difficult to point to a pitcher who has gotten significantly better during the last couple of years in this system. Most of the college draftees have held serve since time of acquisition while the very young pitchers have either regressed or been hurt.
Don’t necessarily know what, but this organization definitely needs to change something up.
93 wins in Hazen’s first season at the helm, 24 more than the year before!! But followed up with a couple just over .500 seasons & then two fifth place finishes.
When you lose 23 more games than Colorado (who almost seem to go out of their way to do everything wrong) & tie Baltimore for the fewest wins in MLB over a two year stretch it might be time to start asking the hard questions.
That 93 win season was a bit of a mirage, and this past season they got hit with more pitching injuries than I think any other team in baseball (even the Cardinals, who also got leveled). They gave something like 60 starts to guys who weren’t part of their Top 5 guys, and collectively they had something like a 6 or a 7 ERA (and their FIP wasn’t much better). So they’re not quite this bad.
Hazen and crew took over a bad team with a bad system and they turned it into a mediocre team with a great system. I think what they’re doing is fine. If there is a finger to point to, it’s at ownership. Kendrick has had a tendency to cheap out at the worst time, ordering the team to slash payroll unexpectedly which means they are getting rid of useful players. But you can’t fire that guy.
The roster is far worse than mediocre. It’s outright bad and among the worst in the majors. Outside of ketel marte there is no good bet at an above average player on the entire roster. Sure gallen/kelly/varsho have shot but between gallen’s step back from good to averagish+ injury concerns it’s not a promising guess. They have currently the third worst depth chart projection. The starting 5 is very bad and without depth (again).
As for the farm i still dig it though the kristian robinson thing is a huge loss for them of course. Even if he were to comeback and play stateside in all likelihood the loss of development time would be huge. I would have had alek thomas as a 60, carroll as a 65, and lawlar as a 60. But i am lower on some of depth pieces than Eric
Wondering if the DBacks should dangle Marte in trade talks. They could net a pretty good return from a team who misses out on all of the big free agents available and/or is running up against the luxury tax (whatever that may be after this lockout) but is firmly in the try-to-win-now phase. He’s technically a rental but also has 2 club options for 2023 and 2024. It’s not super likely that he’ll be around once the DBacks are good again even if they pick up those options. Plenty of teams can use him in many positions. Yankees and Phillies instantly come to mind since they both have up-the-middle needs and high payrolls. Their farm systems are good enough to swing this kind of trade.
If I were the D-Backs, I would definitely consider trading him. The problem is that he’s not going to last as a center fielder, he doesn’t want to play center field, and there are not that many teams desperate for a second baseman. The White Sox are, but they don’t have anyone to trade who isn’t already contributing to the major league roster.
Marlins might be another team who could swing a deal, despite being relatively far away from competing themselves. Sure they already have Chisholm and Rojas handling the middle infield, but neither of them are projected to be very good hitters. Put Marte at 2B, slide Chisholm to SS, and have Rojas bounce around as the UT. Not the most ideal for Miami because they’re punting some defense, but the upgrade on offense is more than worth it and they need big bats first and foremost. Marlins have a bunch of rotation arms, something like 7 or 8 guys who can start big league games right now and be reasonably effective. Arizona needs pitching depth, because once their main 5 guys start getting hurt/lose effectiveness, they don’t have that many arms ready to fill the gaps yet.
I wouldn’t say the Marlins are far away fron competing. That is an excellent staff, if a couple guys take a step forward with the bats, or a couple FA acquisitions it could be as soon as now.
Maybe there’s a deal there anchored by Vaughn?
It could work in theory, but I’m not sure Arizona would value his 1B/DH profile sufficiently for that to work without him already showing he can mash as generally expected in the bigs… but if he’s doing that, then Chicago would probably just keep him. The young guys of note that aren’t major league contributors are like uhh Burger, who’s almost 26, Kelley, who has been mostly hurt and very wild when not, and some younger guys– 3B Bryan Ramos and SS Jose Rodriguez come to mind. If Arizona is high on one or both of the latter two, I could see a deal, but they’d have to be willing to accept a smorgasbord of publicly lower-rated prospects for Marte. I doubt that’d happen, Arizona needs impact talent coming back, and there does not appear to be much if any of that in Chicago’s system right now.
I can’t disagree with any of that. It’s a deal I’d be exploring from the White Sox side, because moving Vaughn and pretty much anything for a high end 2B would be a huge win for them.
The position player situation at the major league level is kind of a mess, since Carson Kelly and Ketel Marte are the only two players who are definitely above average. For some reason they are very resistant to playing Daulton Varsho in CF, but I think he looks like a surefire CF. If I’m the Mariners, I am definitely checking in to see what it will take to land him. But the pitching is pretty underrated. I know why all the projection systems are down on the Gallen / Weaver / Bumgarner trio but I think they’re being a bit too pessimistic, and Kelly is pretty solid too. The bullpen will also be better if they don’t have to keep pressing those guys into duty as starters. It’s not a good team by any means but it’s not as bad as the Pirates.
I don’t follow the Dbacks closely but I don’t necessarily agree that they have shown they don’t like Varsho in CF. He played a lot of catcher last year because they had injuries there. When he was in the outfield, he was usually the CF (21 starts there versus 6 in left and 9 in right)
Barring injuries in 2022 I expect he’ll be a backup C and primarily play OF with time in all three spots, with where they play Marte (and I suppose where Marte plays, if it isn’t Arizona) being the key variables in how much center he plays.
If Thomas and Carroll both hit, Arizona could have the good problem of a full outfield of fleet athletes all capable of playing center