Aaron Civale King Ralph-ed His Way Into the AL East Race

In the 1991 comedy King Ralph, an American lounge singer becomes the King of England when the entire royal family is electrocuted in a freak photography accident. Despite its Academy Award-winning screenwriter and a cast of well-respected actors, the film fell flat, making it an apt comparison for the 2023 Mets, although that’s not why I bring it up today. After a series of unfortunate and unexpected injuries, Aaron Civale finds himself a key cog with the Rays and, therefore, in the race for the AL East crown. Tampa Bay’s rotation doesn’t have much in common with the British monarchy (there’s far too much turnover and not nearly enough silly hats), but just like Ralph Jones, Civale wouldn’t be in this position if so many others in front of him hadn’t bit the dust.

The Rays entered the season with one of the best rotations in the American League: Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, and Zach Eflin. No other team could boast a projected ERA and FIP under 3.80 for all five of its primary starting pitchers. On top of that, no. 37 overall prospect Taj Bradley was nearing his big league debut, and Josh Fleming, Yonny Chirinos, and Luis Patiño were around to provide depth. Our positional power rankings had the Rays rotation third in the AL and eighth overall.

On the other side of the equation, the Guardians entered the season under no pressure to trade Civale. On Opening Day, their postseason odds sat at 44.7%. Two-thirds of the FanGraphs staff picked them to make the playoffs, myself included. Now, this is the Guardians we’re talking about, so high postseason odds won’t stop them from trading a talented, young player, but Civale was set to make only $2.6 million this season, and he’s arbitration-eligible for two more years. Cleveland had little incentive to trade him unless the offer was too good to refuse. Considering his injury history, his 4.92 ERA last season, and the oblique strain he suffered this April, the chances of such an offer materializing seemed slim.

But then the dominoes began to fall. Springs saw his season come to a close in April; Rasmussen threw his last pitch in May. In the background, the Rays’ depth slowly crumbled away. Fleming struggled to throw strikes before landing on the injured list. Chirinos was even worse, pitching to a 6.43 ERA and 5.60 FIP in four starts and getting designated for assignment. Patiño never made a start for the big league club and was dealt to the White Sox at the deadline. Even Bradley ran into trouble, failing to replicate his success from last year at Double- and Triple-A. And while the top prospect looked every bit the part in his first few MLB outings, a little more exposure led to a lot more scoring. In his last six starts, he gave up 26 runs in 25.2 innings, walking 11 and allowing at least one home run in every game. He was optioned the same day the Rays traded for Civale.

By the time the trade deadline rolled around, Tampa Bay’s rotation was being held together with tape and glue. Being the Rays, they still led the AL in rotation ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and WAR all the same, but it was clear they needed reinforcements. Their bullpen ranked in the top three in innings pitched for the sixth consecutive season, but with a 3.86 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and 4.48 xFIP, the arm barn was begging for more support from the starting five. Glasnow and Eflin were pitching well, but Bradley wasn’t getting the job done, McClanahan didn’t look quite right, and no one could expect Zack Littell to keep pitching so well (but that’s a whole other story).

Meanwhile, things went from bad to worse for the Guardians. Their postseason odds went in the wrong direction as they struggled to stay above .500. Then Shane Bieber injured his elbow. The former Cy Young winner was his team’s best trade chip, and as the first half played out, it seemed increasingly likely he’d be wearing a new uniform by August. Unfortunately, he hit the injured list just after the All-Star break and moved to the 60-day IL a week before the deadline. A trade was all but out of the question. With their postseason odds dwindling and Bieber on the shelf, it looked like the Guardians would miss the playoffs and fail to cash in with a trade.

But two days before the August 1 deadline, Zack Meisel of The Athletic revealed that the Guardians had “kicked around” the idea of dealing Civale instead. It made sense. Bieber was off the table. So was Cal Quantrill, nursing shoulder inflammation after a rough first half. Given the Guardians’ position in the AL Central, they didn’t need to deal anyone, but everything came together just right as they took advantage of a seller’s market. The White Sox chose to keep Dylan Cease, giving the Guardians even more leverage; no one else was trading a young starting pitcher with multiple years of team control. On top of that, Civale had just finished the flashiest month of his career, posting a 1.45 ERA in six starts. The Guardians weren’t just selling; they were selling high, and the Rays were desperate enough to meet their demands.

After the trade, pieces continued falling into place. The latest casualty in the Rays’ rotation was McClanahan, who threw his last pitch just after the deadline, leaving Civale as one of only three bona fide starting pitchers left in Tampa Bay. The Rays are famous for their unconventional rotation and bullpen management, but they still need to pitch nine innings a game, just like everyone else. Moreover, with Wander Franco likely out for the season, the Rays are down one of the best defensive infielders in the game, making Civale even more essential to their run-prevention efforts. A few months ago, he would have been wholly superfluous on this team. Now, he’s almost guaranteed to make a postseason start.

Like King Ralph, Civale has taken on a huge responsibility, and all eyes are on him to see if he’s up to the task. So far, so good. Despite a bit of a rocky first appearance, his numbers are impressive in three starts since the trade deadline: a 2.93 ERA, a 2.22 FIP, and a 5.50 K/BB in 15.1 innings. His strikeout rate is low, but his walk rate is minuscule, and he’s done good work preventing dangerous contact — his hard-hit rate is down, his GB/FB ratio is up, and he has yet to allow a home run.

Yet behind the castle doors, there might be cause for concern. Civale has never been a hard thrower, but in seven starts since the All-Star Game, his velocity is down across the board:

The 28-year-old has never pitched a full qualified season, and he’s on pace to surpass his career-high in innings pitched. He’s never made more than 15 starts in a row without a trip to the injured list. It’s only natural that he would tire as the year goes on. But the decrease in his velocity wasn’t gradual. Nine starts into his season, his average velocity dropped by more than a mile per hour on all six of his pitches. Velocity isn’t everything, but that’s a pretty big red flag for such a young player.

If you pull apart the data even more, though, his declining velocity might not be as much of a problem as it seems. Here is his velocity in three starts with the Rays compared to earlier in the season; the difference isn’t nearly as dramatic:

You can also take the slider and split-finger numbers with a grain of salt, since he rarely uses either offering. Therefore, it was really just those final four starts with the Guardians when Civale’s velocity took a severe dip:

There’s no denying that those numbers are worrisome. But Civale has thrown nearly 40 innings since the All-Star Break, and other than his velo, there’s no reason to think he’s hurting. Instead, it seems more likely that his sudden drop in velocity was a conscious choice.

If you’ll allow me to put on my tinfoil hat for a moment: I think it’s interesting that Civale started pitching so cautiously right after Bieber and Quantrill were injured and Triston McKenzie was moved to the 60-day IL. Did the Guardians ask him to take it easy after the All-Star break? On a similar note, now that he’s a more critical piece in a rotation that’s also been hit hard by injuries, will he continue to take it slow, or will the Rays encourage him to ramp back up to his full potential?

Ultimately, Civale’s velocity, whether higher or lower, doesn’t seem to make much of a difference. His average velocity since the All-Star looks a lot like his radar gun readings from last season, when he posted a 3.87 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, and 3.80 xERA. Furthermore, while his Stuff+ numbers have dropped significantly since the All-Star break, his Pitching+ has remained constant. It’s the same thing with PitchingBot, although it’s a little less extreme; his stuff numbers are down, but it hasn’t affected the overall quality of his pitches. It plays out in his results, too. His strikeout rate has dropped, but so have his walk and home run rates. He’s been sacrificing whiffs in exchange for better command, and he’s inducing more soft contact to boot. It’s been an even tradeoff thus far.

Civale has always been willing to change, and that’s where the movie parallels end. King Ralph ultimately renounced his throne; he couldn’t (or wouldn’t) adapt to his new role. Yet for Civale, his ability to make adjustments might just be his biggest strength. As a prospect, evaluators praised his pitchability; Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel admired the “spacious bag of tricks” he used to his advantage. Throughout his big league career, he has regularly modified his pitch mix and approach, allowing him to remain a productive mid-to-back-end starter despite middling stuff. The Rays, for their part, are well-known for helping pitchers make adjustments to reach their full potential. It took a long string of unexpected events for Civale to wind up Tampa Bay’s no. 3 starter, but now that he is, both he and his team will strive to make the most of it. A strong performance from John Goodman couldn’t save King Ralph, but perhaps a strong performance from Civale can help the Rays win the AL East.