New Hampshire State Senate elections, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 23
- Early voting: N/A
- Absentee voting deadline: Varies by locality
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: Photo ID required
- Poll times: In general, polling places open between 6:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. and close at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time
| 2018 New Hampshire Senate elections | |
|---|---|
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| General | November 6, 2018 |
| Primary | September 11, 2018 |
| Past election results |
| 2016・2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 |
| 2018 elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
Democrats gained a majority in the 2018 elections for the New Hampshire State Senate, winning 14 seats to Republicans' 10. All 24 Senate seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans held 14 seats to Democrats' 10.
Ballotpedia identified eight of the races as battlegrounds, including six Republican-held districts and two Democratic-held districts. Democrats and Republicans each won four battleground races, with Democrats winning in three Republican-held districts and Republicans winning in one Democratic-held district.
Heading into the election, New Hampshire had been a Republican trifecta since 2017 after Gov. Chris Sununu (R) was elected. The state Senate and the state House were already controlled by Republicans prior to the 2016 elections.
To retake control of the chamber in 2018, Democrats needed to gain three seats. Republicans needed to gain two seats to gain a veto-proof majority in 2018. A two-thirds majority—16 seats in the state Senate—is required to override a gubernatorial veto.
The New Hampshire State Senate was one of 87 state legislative chambers holding elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country. The New Hampshire State Senate was also one of 22 state legislative battleground chambers identified by Ballotpedia in the 2018 elections. Read more below.
New Hampshire state senators serve two-year terms, with all seats up for election every two years.
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Aftermath
- December 5, 2018: The state legislature re-elected incumbent state Secretary of State Bill Gardner (D) to his 22nd term. He defeated Colin Van Ostern (D) on the second ballot by a 209-205 vote.[1]
Post-election analysis
- See also: State legislative elections, 2018
The Democratic Party gained control of both chambers of the New Hampshire General Court in the 2018 election. Both chambers of the New Hampshire General Court were identified as battleground chambers and both chambers flipped from having Republican majorities to having Democratic majorities. In the state Senate, all 24 seats were up for election. Democrats gained control of the New Hampshire State Senate by gaining four net seats, from 10-14 to 14-10. One Democratic incumbent and four Republican incumbents were defeated in the general election.
The New Hampshire House of Representatives held elections for all 400 seats. The Democratic Patry gained control of the House of Representatives. Before the election, Democrats held 167 seats, Republicans held 212 seats, independents held two seats, and 19 seats were vacant. Following the election, Democrats held 233 seats and Republicans held 167 seats. Six Democratic incumbents and four Republican incumbents were defeated in the primary. Forty-five incumbents were defeated in the general election; three Democrats, 39 Republicans, one independent, and two Libertarians.
National background
On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.
- Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.
Want more information?
- Incumbents defeated in 2018's state legislative elections
- 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
- 2018 election analysis: Number of state legislators by party
- 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities
Districts
Use the interactive map below to find your district.
Candidates
General candidates
Note: A list of candidates who cross-filed with multiple parties is included below the table.
New Hampshire State Senate general election |
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Jeff Woodburn (i) |
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Tania Butler (Libertarian Party) |
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Ian Freeman (Libertarian Party) |
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Gary Daniels (i) |
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Kevin Avard (i) |
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Mitch Dyer (Libertarian Party) |
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William Gannon (i) |
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Dan Innis (i) |
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= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection
Political party key:
Democratic
Republican
Green Party
Libertarian Party
Working Families Party
Independent Party
Fusion voting candidates
- District 20: Carla Gericke
Primary candidates
The candidate list below is based on a candidate filing list provided by the New Hampshire Secretary of State. The filing deadline for the September primary was on June 15, 2018.[2]
New Hampshire State Senate Primary Election 2018 |
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Margins of victory
A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 New Hampshire State Senate races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.
The table below presents the following figures for each party:
- Elections won
- Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
- Elections won without opposition
- Average margin of victory[3]
| New Hampshire State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Elections won | Elections won by less than 10% | Unopposed elections | Average margin of victory[3] |
| Democratic |
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| Republican |
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 Other |
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| Total | ||||
The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).
Seats flipped
The below map displays each seat in the New Hampshire State Senate which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.
| State legislative seats flipped in 2018, New Hampshire State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | 2018 winner | Direction of flip |
| New Hampshire State Senate District 1 | Jeff Woodburn |
David Starr |
D to R |
| New Hampshire State Senate District 11 | Gary Daniels |
Shannon Chandley |
R to D |
| New Hampshire State Senate District 12 | Kevin Avard |
Melanie Levesque |
R to D |
| New Hampshire State Senate District 23 | William M. Gannon |
Jon Morgan |
R to D |
| New Hampshire State Senate District 24 | Dan Innis |
Tom Sherman |
R to D |
| New Hampshire State Senate District 9 | Andy Sanborn |
Jeanne Dietsch |
R to D |
Incumbents retiring
Two incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.[4] Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Office | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Sanborn | Republican |
Senate District 9 | Filed for different office |
| Bette Lasky | Democratic |
Senate District 13 | Retired |
2018 battleground chamber
Ballotpedia identified the New Hampshire State Senate as one of 22 battleground chambers in 2018. These were chambers that we anticipated to be, overall, more competitive than other chambers and had the potential to see significant shifts in party control.
The chamber was selected because it met the following conditions:
- Competitive seats: In 2016, six Republican seats had a margin of victory that was less than 10 percent. Two Democratic seats had a margin of victory that was less than 10 percent. See the 2018 races to watch here.
- 2016 presidential election results: Hillary Clinton (D) won two districts that elected Republicans to the state Senate. Another two districts voted for Donald Trump (R) for president and Democrats for state Senate. See the 2016 presidential results in state legislative districts here.
- Recent party control switches: The chamber flipped from Democratic to Republican control in 2010.
| Party control: 2006 - 2016 | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election Year: | 2006 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | |||||||||
| Winning Party: | D | D | R | R | R | R | |||||||||
Battleground races
| New Hampshire State Senate Battleground races |
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| Democratic seats |
| District 1
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| District 16
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| Republican seats |
| District 2
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| District 7
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| District 8
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| District 9
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| District 12
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| District 24
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Ballotpedia identified eight battleground races in the New Hampshire State Senate 2018 elections: two Democratic seats and six Republican seats. Based on analysis of these districts' electoral histories, these races had the potential to be more competitive than other races and could possibly have led to shifts in a chamber's partisan balance.
To determine state legislative battleground races in 2018, Ballotpedia looked for races that fit one or more of the four factors listed below:
- If the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in the most recent election prior to 2018
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections and the incumbent’s margin of victory in the previous election was 10 percentage points or less
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections and the incumbent did not file to run for re-election
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections by 20 points or more
Other factors could also cause a race to be classified as a battleground. For example, Ballotpedia may have considered an election to be a battleground race if an outside group or a national or state party announced that they were targeting a specific seat in order to flip it. We may have also determined a race to be a battleground if it received an unusual amount of media attention. Two additional factors were open seats and districts impacted by redistricting.
District 1
Who won this race?
| Republican David Starr defeated incumbent Democrat Jeff Woodburn. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
Who were the candidates running?
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What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent Jeff Woodburn (D) was first elected in 2012 and was re-elected in 2016. In 2015, he became state Senate minority leader. In 2016, he received 54.6 percent of the vote and defeated his Republican challenger by 9.2 points. District 1 was one of 14 New Hampshire Senate districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 1 by 4.7 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 15.5 points. |
District 2
Who won this race?
| Republican incumbent Bob Giuda defeated Democrat Bill Bolton. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
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What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Bob Giuda (R) was first elected in 2016. He received 54.0 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 8.0 points. District 2 was one of 14 New Hampshire Senate districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 2 by 6.5 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 6.6 points. |
District 7
Who won this race?
| Republican incumbent Harold French defeated Democrat Mason Donovan. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
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What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Harold F. French (R) was first elected in 2016. He received 50.03 percent of the vote and defeated Democratic incumbent Andrew Hosmer by 0.06 points. District 7 was one of 14 New Hampshire Senate districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 7 by 12.6 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 4.5 points. |
District 8
Who won this race?
| Republican incumbent Ruth Ward defeated Democrat Jenn Alford-Teaster. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
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What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Ruth Ward (R) was first elected in 2016. She received 53.1 percent of the vote and defeated her Democratic challenger by 6.1 points. District 8 was one of 14 New Hampshire Senate districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 8 by 7.4 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 3.6 points. |
District 9
Who won this race?
| Democrat Jeanne Dietsch defeated Republican Dan Hynes. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent Andy Sanborn (R) was first elected in 2012 and was re-elected in 2016. He received 53.7 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 7.4 points. District 9 was one of 10 New Hampshire Senate districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 9 by 1.0 points. Mitt Romney (R) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 3.4 points. |
District 12
Who won this race?
| Democrat Melanie Levesque defeated Republican incumbent Kevin Avard. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
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What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Kevin Avard (R) was first elected in 2014 and was re-elected in 2016. He received 51.3 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 2.6 points. District 12 was one of 14 New Hampshire Senate districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 12 by 2.5 points. Mitt Romney (R) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 4.1 points. |
District 16
Who won this race?
| Democratic incumbent Kevin Cavanaugh defeated Republican David Boutin. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
Who were the candidates running?
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What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Scott McGilvray (D) was first elected in 2016. He received 51.0 percent of the vote and defeated his Republican challenger by 2.1 points. He was the first Democrat to win the seat since 1970. McGilvray died from an illness in March 2017. A special election was held to fill his seat. Democrat Kevin Cavanaugh won the special election with 54.8 percent of the vote. He defeated his Republican challenger by 10.8 points. District 16 was one of 10 New Hampshire Senate districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 16 by 0.3 points. Mitt Romney (R) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 1.1 points. |
District 24
Who won this race?
| Democratic Tom Sherman defeated Republican incumbent Dan Innis. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
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What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent Dan Innis (R) was first elected in 2016. He received 52.2 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 4.3 points. District 24 was one of 10 New Hampshire Senate districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 24 by 0.04 points. Mitt Romney (R) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 2.4 points. |
Battleground races map
New Hampshire political history
Party control
2018
In the 2018 elections, Democrats gained control of the New Hampshire State Senate.
| New Hampshire State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 6, 2018 | After November 7, 2018 | |
| Democratic Party | 10 | 14 | |
| Republican Party | 14 | 10 | |
| Total | 24 | 24 | |
2016
In the 2016 elections, Republicans maintained control of the New Hampshire State Senate.
| New Hampshire State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 10 | 10 | |
| Republican Party | 13 | 14 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 24 | 24 | |
Trifectas
A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Democrats in New Hampshire held a state government trifecta for four years between 1992 and 2017. During that same period of time, Republicans held a trifecta for eight years.
In elections between the 1990s and 2016, New Hampshire leaned Republican at the state legislative level but leaned Democratic at the statewide and presidential levels. Between 1992 and 2017, Republicans controlled the Senate for 20 years, while Democrats held the chamber for five years. In 2011, Republicans retook the state Senate, after previously holding the chamber from 1992 to 1998 and 2001 to 2006. Similar to the Senate, Republicans held the state House for 20 years between 1992 and 2017. Democrats only held the chamber for six years throughout that same period of time. During the 2006, 2010, and 2014 elections, the state House went through massive partisan swings. Democrats overcame a 98-seat Republican majority in the 2006 elections before Republicans rebounded in the 2010 elections. Republicans overcame a 40-seat majority in 2014 to retake control of the chamber.
Democrats controlled the governor's office for 18 years between 1992 and 2016. Republican Chris Sununu was elected to the office in 2016. Prior to Sununu's election in 2016, Republicans had only held the governor's office for seven years between 1992 and 2016. Sununu's victory made the state a Republican trifecta, meaning Republicans controlled both chambers of the legislature and the governor's mansion.
New Hampshire Party Control: 1992-2024
Four years of Democratic trifectas • Thirteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R |
| House | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R |
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| State legislative wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | State legislative seats change | Elections analyzed[5] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -1,022 | 7,365 | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -907 | 6,907 | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[6] | -782 | 7,561 | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -769 | 7,179 | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -702 | 7,627 | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -702 | 7,306 | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[7] | -695 | 7,481 | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -654 | 6,835 | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -640 | 7,361 | |
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -494 | 7,513 | |
Candidate and office information
Process to become a candidate
See statutes: New Hampshire Revised Statutes, Chapter 655: Nominations
For party candidates
A recognized political party candidate seeking placement on the primary election ballot must file a declaration of candidacy. On this declaration, the candidate must affirm that he or she is both a registered voter and a registered member of the party whose nomination he or she is pursuing.[8]
In addition to filing the declaration of candidacy, the candidate must do one of the following.[9]
1.) Pay an administrative assessment fee. Fees are established by state law and vary according to the office being sought.[9][10]
| Administrative assessment fees | |
|---|---|
| Office | Fee |
| Governor, United States Senator | $100 |
| United States Representative | $50 |
| Executive Councilor | $25 |
| State Senator | $10 |
| State Representative | $2 |
2.) File primary petitions. The number of required petition papers (each of which contains one signature) is established by state law and varies according to the office being sought.[9][10]
| Primary petitions | |
|---|---|
| Office | Number of petitions |
| Governor, United States Senator | 200 |
| United States Representative | 100 |
| Executive Councilor | 50 |
| State Senator | 20 |
| State Representative | 5 |
A written "assent to candidacy" must accompany the submitted primary petitions.[9][11]
A candidate for state-level office must also file a financial disclosure form.[12]
Filing paperwork for most offices is submitted to the New Hampshire Secretary of State. Filing paperwork for state House candidates is submitted to the town or city clerk of the municipality where the candidate resides. Filings must be made between the first Wednesday in June and the Friday of the following week.[9][13]
For nonparty candidates
A candidate seeking placement on the general election ballot must file a declaration of intent. The declaration of intent must be filed between the first Wednesday in June and the Friday of the following week.[14][15]
In addition to filing this declaration, the candidate must do one of the following.[9]
1.) Pay an administrative assessment fee. Fees are established by state law and vary according to the office being sought.[9]
| Administrative assessment fees | |
|---|---|
| Office | Fee |
| Governor, United States Senator | $100 |
| United States Representative | $50 |
| Executive Councilor | $25 |
| State Senator | $10 |
| State Representative | $2 |
2.) File nomination papers. Nomination papers must include the name and residence of the candidate, the office being sought, and the political organization or principles the candidate represents. The number of required nomination papers (each of which contains one signature) is established by state law and varies according to the office being sought.[9][16]
| Nomination papers | |
|---|---|
| Office | Number of papers |
| Governor, United States Senator | 3,000** |
| United States Representative | 1,500 |
| Executive Councilor | 750 |
| State Senator | 750 |
| State Representative | 150 |
| ** Of the 3,000 required signatures/papers, 1,500 must be collected from each of the state's two congressional districts. | |
A candidate for state-level office must also file a financial disclosure form.[12]
Prior to final filing, nomination papers must be submitted for certification to the Supervisors of the Checklist in each town or city where signatures were collected. Nomination papers must be submitted for certification by 5:00 p.m. on the Wednesday five weeks before the primary. Nomination papers are ultimately due to the New Hampshire Secretary of State by 5:00 p.m. on the Wednesday before the primary.[9]
For write-in candidates
A write-in candidate does not need to file any special forms in order to have his or her votes tallied. In the event that a write-in candidate wins the nomination of a party at a primary election, he or she is required to file a declaration of candidacy with the New Hampshire Secretary of State no later than the first Monday following the primary election. Also, a write-in candidate must have received at least 35 votes in order to be considered the winner of a primary election.[17]
Qualifications
To be eligible to serve in the New Hampshire Senate, a candidate must be:[18]
- At least thirty years of age
- A resident of the state for seven years immediately preceding the election
- An inhabitant of the district for which they are chosen
Salaries and per diem
- See also: Comparison of state legislative salaries
| State legislative salaries, 2023 | |
|---|---|
| Salary | Per diem |
| $100/year | No per diem is paid. |
When sworn in
New Hampshire legislators assume office on the first Wednesday of December following the general election.[19]
Competitiveness
Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.
Results from 2016
Below is Ballotpedia's 2016 competitiveness analysis. Click here to read the full study »
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Three of 10 New Hampshire counties—30 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Coos County, New Hampshire | 8.89% | 17.54% | 18.19% | ||||
| Hillsborough County, New Hampshire | 0.20% | 1.12% | 3.73% | ||||
| Sullivan County, New Hampshire | 2.58% | 13.27% | 17.93% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New Hampshire with 46.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 46.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1789 and 2016, New Hampshire voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 31 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New Hampshire voted Democratic with the exception of the 2000 presidential election.[20]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in New Hampshire. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[21][22]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 17.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 10 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 14.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 12 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 5.6 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 9.6 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state Senate District | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 57.08% | 41.61% | D+15.5 | 44.99% | 49.68% | R+4.7 | D |
| 2 | 52.51% | 45.89% | D+6.6 | 43.98% | 50.44% | R+6.5 | R |
| 3 | 49.12% | 49.88% | R+0.8 | 43.80% | 51.18% | R+7.4 | R |
| 4 | 58.08% | 40.29% | D+17.8 | 54.34% | 39.58% | D+14.8 | D |
| 5 | 67.21% | 31.61% | D+35.6 | 64.56% | 30.85% | D+33.7 | D |
| 6 | 48.32% | 50.55% | R+2.2 | 38.68% | 55.72% | R+17 | R |
| 7 | 51.70% | 47.17% | D+4.5 | 41.20% | 53.79% | R+12.6 | R |
| 8 | 51.06% | 47.42% | D+3.6 | 43.59% | 50.95% | R+7.4 | R |
| 9 | 47.73% | 51.10% | R+3.4 | 47.84% | 46.80% | D+1 | R |
| 10 | 65.04% | 33.59% | D+31.4 | 57.23% | 37.63% | D+19.6 | D |
| 11 | 47.67% | 50.89% | R+3.2 | 46.41% | 48.12% | R+1.7 | R |
| 12 | 47.21% | 51.36% | R+4.1 | 45.98% | 48.45% | R+2.5 | R |
| 13 | 58.98% | 39.69% | D+19.3 | 55.28% | 39.78% | D+15.5 | D |
| 14 | 43.11% | 55.81% | R+12.7 | 40.93% | 53.97% | R+13 | R |
| 15 | 63.57% | 35.25% | D+28.3 | 58.03% | 36.71% | D+21.3 | D |
| 16 | 48.95% | 50.02% | R+1.1 | 47.69% | 47.37% | D+0.3 | D |
| 17 | 48.55% | 49.99% | R+1.4 | 39.58% | 54.99% | R+15.4 | R |
| 18 | 51.23% | 47.52% | D+3.7 | 46.10% | 48.85% | R+2.7 | D |
| 19 | 42.34% | 56.47% | R+14.1 | 39.59% | 55.53% | R+15.9 | R |
| 20 | 53.77% | 44.65% | D+9.1 | 49.28% | 45.21% | D+4.1 | D |
| 21 | 65.10% | 33.62% | D+31.5 | 64.73% | 29.61% | D+35.1 | D |
| 22 | 40.70% | 58.37% | R+17.7 | 37.33% | 58.66% | R+21.3 | R |
| 23 | 47.62% | 51.11% | R+3.5 | 44.05% | 50.72% | R+6.7 | R |
| 24 | 48.37% | 50.73% | R+2.4 | 47.82% | 47.78% | D+0 | R |
| Total | 52.17% | 46.57% | D+5.6 | 47.60% | 47.22% | D+0.4 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
See also
- New Hampshire State Senate
- New Hampshire State Legislature
- State legislative elections, 2018
- New Hampshire state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- New Hampshire state legislative Republican primaries, 2018
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ NECN, "Bill Gardner Re-Elected as NH Secretary of State After Major Challenge," December 5, 2018
- ↑ New HampshireSecretary of State, "2018 Filing Period," accessed July 2, 2018
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ Ballotpedia defines an incumbent as retiring if the incumbent did not file for office or filed for office but withdrew, was disqualified, or otherwise left a race in a manner other than losing the primary, primary runoff, or convention. If an incumbent runs as a write-in candidate, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring. If an incumbent runs in the same chamber for a different seat, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring.
- ↑ The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
- ↑ New Hampshire Revised Statutes, "Title LXIII, Section 655:17," accessed March 24, 2014
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 New Hampshire Secretary of State, "New Hampshire - Filing Period," accessed March 24, 2014
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 New Hampshire Revised Statutes, "Title LXIII, Section 655:19-c," accessed March 24, 2014
- ↑ New Hampshire Revised Statutes, "Title LXIII, Section 655:25," accessed March 25, 2014
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 New Hampshire Secretary of State, "Election Forms," accessed March 24, 2014
- ↑ New Hampshire Revised Statutes, "Title LXIII, Section 655:14," accessed March 24, 2014
- ↑ New Hampshire Revised Statutes, "Title LXIII, Section 655:17-a," accessed March 24, 2014
- ↑ New Hampshire Revised Statutes, "Title LXIII, Section 655:14-a," accessed March 24, 2014
- ↑ New Hampshire Revised Statutes, "Title LXIII, Section 655:42," accessed March 24, 2014
- ↑ New Hampshire Revised Statutes, "Title LXIII, Section 659:88," accessed March 24, 2014
- ↑ Qualifications to serve in the New Hampshire Senate (Pg. 18) (dead link)
- ↑ New Hampshire Constitution, "Part II, Article 3," accessed February 10, 2021
- ↑ 270towin.com, "New Hampshire," accessed June 1, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
