Ross Dawson

Well-executed scenario planning can be exceptionally valuable, but it rarely is. Three important principles: - Know HOW you will use the scenarios and process before you start. Many do scenario projects because they think they should, and don't know how to convert their scenarios to better strategic decisions. - Do NOT choose good/ neutral/ bad scenarios. Inexperienced executives and consultants naturally do this, creating a description of expectations (neutral), and what they do and don't want to happen. This doesn't lead to exploring unanticipated developments. - The primary objective should be STRETCHING THINKING. Creating a document with a set of scenarios is next to useless. Design so executives think better and more broadly.

The four most important domains to apply generative AI, with examples, are: Personalized content generation - Interactive agents and chatbots - Media and content generation - Targeted content and advertising - User-centered product design Cognitive complement - Creative collaboration - Ideation and Humans + AI workflows - Enhanced decision-making - AI agents for defined tasks Research and innovation - Interdisciplinary opportunity discovery - Creative problem solving and design - Drug and compound discovery - Framing ethical issues in technology Education - Personalized learning pathways - Educational content creation - AI tutors and learning guides - Teaching assistance There is unlimited potential in each of these domains!

The highest quality decisions come from structured Humans + AI workflows that integrate each's unique capabilities. For complex decisions a few specific AI roles at different decision stages include: Define decision: - deconstruct decision criteria - stakeholder perspectives - risk framework Generate options: - insights from diverse perspectives - structured ideation - systems mapping Assess options: - identify assessment criteria - apply decision frameworks - scenario-based assessment Decision: - AI-assisted group discussion - challenges and red-teaming - communication of decision rationale In designing a context-specific Humans + AI decision process, be sure to clarify the distinct roles of Generative AI and Analytic AI.

Past data does not predict the future. Neural networks are valuable for predictions: 1. In tightly defined domains; 2. As qualified input to complex decisions. To make effective predictions neural networks need: - a very clearly defined application domain - high quality data pertinent to the domain - other variables to remain unchanged (which is rarely true) AI "predictions" can be useful input to decisions when: - the scope of validity of the model is clear - the quality of models and data inputs is understood - changes in environmental variables that may impact model performance are recognized In short, neural networks are useful for predictions in in tightly parameterized domains with quality data, and with great caution otherwise.

Used well, AI can dramatically improve our capacity for strategic thinking. Specific aspects include: - Surfacing emerging trends in your industry - Deconstruct problems into underlying issues - Ideate innovative solutions to issues - Generate useful metaphors and analogies - Generate relevant strategic options - Suggest criteria for assessing strategic options - Provide preliminary assessment of strategic options - Cross-disciplinary inspiration - Generate stakeholder personas and assess their viewpoints - Create and assess scenario frameworks This is a very small subset of specific ways AI can support strategic thinking. Far greater value comes from implementing an overarching "Humans + AI" strategic thinking process.

There are a wide range of powerful approaches for AI-enhanced creativity in ideas and thinking, including: - Enhanced divergence. The creative process often follows a Divergence-Convergence pattern. AI excels at broadening the range of divergent ideas. Humans excel at selecting, and curating the best of those for development. - Combinatorial ideation. AI can generate valuable possibilities from the intersection of ideas and perspectives. Those combination points can be guided by humans or uncovered by AI. - Ideation frameworks. Providing AI with frameworks such as McLuhan's Tetrad, de Bono's 6 Thinking Hats, and many others can quickly generate extensive possibilities. The best creative results stem from a "Humans + AI" mentality.