ars predictions... does Biden get replaced before the convention

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blindbear

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It is frustrating. Modern Democrats are not aligned with most of my values. They are still too corporate friendly, and stick with the old allies system (Israel, Saudi, etc.). The regulatory agencies have gotten weaker over the years. Honestly, I feel they only support social justice issues because those issues do not impact their corporate relationships. I also think some of their social justice has gotten too far without actually address the core issues. Letting criminals get off easy instead of solving the underlining issues of the society.

I feel like I am forced to vote Democrats because I do not want non-white, non-cis-male, non-Christian put into literally physical harm.
 
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NewNinetyNine

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it's going to come down to an occasionally doddering occasionally fiery old man
That's far too generous. The man is in denial about his own campaign and allergic to talking without a teleprompter, especially after dinner. He can either avoid unscripted appearances and have his fitness questioned or do them and die to a thousand cuts or a few big wallops.
 
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Lt_Storm

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Considering my votes in the last three presidential primaries, said politico would have to be really fucking stupid to come to that conclusion which, okay, believable actually. The modern Democratic party has been insistent on learning the wrong lessons since their fuckheaded “Third Way” served up the working class to the Republicans on a silver platter.
In this regard, Biden has been the best most working class friendly President in my lifetime and not by a small amount either. Actually, a good bit longer than that. So, if this is why people aren't voting for Biden, then there is no reason for the Democratic Party to ever care about the working class, when they do, we apparently still punish them for it.

Not to say that I am happy with everything, just that Biden's economic policy has been quite the opposite of Clinton's abuse toward the poor. Biden's reserved support for Israel is indeed galling. But, it's still better than the alternative of Trump's fawning support for Israel and their genocide.

The Democratic Party has taken my vote for granted, they have apparently started believing that I and people like me will continue to compromise with them while they can freely move rightward and accede to Republican framing on important issues. I need to see some compromises from them.
Huh? To put this clearly: Biden is a good way to the left of Obama, Clinton, and, arguably, even Carter. If his support of unions and economic policy don't count as "compromises from them", then we are lost. To the degree that it is possible for a President to meet his promises unilaterally, Biden has done very very well. He forgave a great deal of existing student loan debt under his own power, his build back better plan gives us the working class more than they have received in a long time.

Biden could easily win back my vote if he did even one thing he ran on, like he could use that new immunity to literally go axe student loan debt at the source. I bet that would even bump his approval ratings, the photo-op alone would be historic. But he won’t.
Wat? Let's be honest here, that wouldn't work. At all. We know exactly what this court would have to say about that, indeed, they have already said it about the loans he already forage. It turns out that isn't a core power of the Presidency quelle surprise. Not that that has entirely stopped him; though I'm sure the Supreme Court will get to that soon enough.
It is frustrating. Modern Democrats are not aligned with most of my values. They are still too corporate friendly, and stick with the old allies system (Israel, Saudi, etc.). The regulatory agencies have gotten weaker over the years. Honestly, I feel they only support social justice issues because those issues do not impact their corporate relationships. I also think some of their social justice has gotten too far without actually address the core issues. Letting criminals get off easy instead of solving the underlining issues of the society.

I feel like I am forced to vote Democrats because I do not want non-white, non-cis-male, non-Christian put into literally physical harm.
Now frustration I do get, after all moderate Democrats suck and Congress is chockablock full of them. But I also find it quite frustrating when people say "Modern Democrats" when they are really talking about people like Joe Manchin, who isn't even a Democrat anymore (though he is still caucusing with us, so we still control the Senate, for whatever small good that does). Realistically, when Congress is considered, the Democrats barely have enough votes to agree to take out the trash. This is why we have threads discussing things like the dumpster fire that is Federal appropriations. And yet, people are mad at Biden because Marjorie Taylor Greene is an asshole and Joe Manchin is a strange conservative. It's like people don't understand how any of this shit works.
 
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Lt_Storm

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That's far too generous. The man is in denial about his own campaign and allergic to talking without a teleprompter, especially after dinner. He can either avoid unscripted appearances and have his fitness questioned or do them and die to a thousand cuts or a few big wallops.

Frankly, no it isn't. After all, dementia is a strange beast: even when patients have essentially lost their minds they still tend to have occasional good days where they are on top of things and show no symptoms whatsoever. The reality of such aging disease is pretty much always uneven: some days you get to talk to grandpa, other days you get to talk to a strange old man who doesn't know who you are; or, put another way, occasionally fiery occasionally doddering. The idea otherwise is, at best, ageist. The reality of these diseases is far more complicated than you imply.

And, frankly, even when we accept that his debate performance was characterized by dementia, that tells us absolutely nothing about how far gone he actually is. The reality is that it isn't possible to know that without prolonged contact over a period of at least weeks. Anyone who states otherwise is, at best, incorrect.
 
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NewNinetyNine

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Frankly, no it isn't. After all, dementia is a strange beast: even when patients have essentially lost their minds they still tend to have occasional good days where they are on top of things and show no symptoms whatsoever. The reality of such aging disease is pretty much always uneven: some days you get to talk to grandpa, other days you get to talk to a strange old man who doesn't know who you are; or, put another way, occasionally fiery occasionally doddering. The idea otherwise is, at best, ageist. The reality of these diseases is far more complicated than you imply.

And, frankly, even when we accept that his debate performance was characterized by dementia, that tells us absolutely nothing about how far gone he actually is. The reality is that it isn't possible to know that without prolonged contact over a period of at least weeks. Anyone who states otherwise is, at best, incorrect.
I don't care if it's dementia or other difficulties of aging; a president who struggles to function in evenings and who struggles to communicate without a teleprompter is not fully discharging the office and should never, ever be given four more years. We don't get to pick which days and times a president is needed at her full capabilities. Nor will he win election like this, with such a potent and fruitful attack surface available.

Compare Biden 2024 to Biden 2019 and Biden 2012. Then picture Biden 2028. If this was a GOP candidate, you'd be shouting from the rooftops that they are unfit.

Edit: Typo
 
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Louis XVI

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NBC had a neurologist on who is 100% sure of Parkinson's - "Oh yeah I see him 20 times a day in clinic." "I could have diagnosed him from across the Mall."


View: https://youtu.be/97ZIHY2QcDI?si=XbPE8iIcjC36tomB&t=31

Any jackass who purports to diagnose anyone with anything based on TV appearances should lose their license. (Edited to add: Biden’s actual doctor has debunked the Parkinson’s FUD.)

Meanwhile, the putsch appears to be losing steam. Far from cratering in the polls, Biden has lost a grand total of…1-2 points since the debate. A broad gamut of elected Democrats have rallied around the President, including Squad members AOC, Ayanna Pressley, and Ilhan Omar (who said that Biden has “been the best president of my lifetime”); Bernie Sanders; Hakeem Jeffries; many members of the Congressional Black Caucus; center-right Democrats like Mark Kelly (a fantasy candidate of some folks here) and John Fetterman; and the leaders of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

Today is a big day, as Biden will be addressing a NATO summit, and the Democratic House and Senate caucuses will be meeting separately to discuss his candidacy. Things could certainly change with another misstep, but at the moment, it looks like Biden stands a good chance of weathering the storm after all.
 
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Thank You and Best of Luck!

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It is a choice between good and evil. Take you pick.
It isn't a choice. You're getting evil. That's what's going to happen.

The "Good" side can't mount any kind of meaningful defense to stave off "Evil". Because the "Good" side has decided that the only thing that matters is that a declining octogenarian thinks he gave it the ol' college try.

What's the saying? "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."

Well, Joe Biden has decided to typify that statement. Unless he steps aside or he or Trump just drops dead between now and November, the US is screwed.
 
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Why didn't the Democratic leader ship not work to have a plan B? Why did they not use the last 4 years to bring those that might be available to take the reins?
Why have they not had their leaders constantly hammering on the evil of Trump and company?
Ever see Mark Warner or any of the other senior D's on any media slamming the GOP for everything they do?
The Democrat's needed to come together to fight the good fight for us.

Now they are just eating their own face.

edited for: And hammered the media for their blind rush to viewers and the owners that are behind the evil.
 
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Nekojin

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Why didn't the Democratic leader ship not work to have a plan B? Why did they not use the last 4 years to bring those that might be available to take the reins?
Why have they not had their leaders constantly hammering on the evil of Trump and company?
Ever see Mark Warner or any of the other senior D's on any media slamming the GOP for everything they do?
The Democrat's needed to come together to fight the good fight for us.

Now they are just eating their own face.

edited for: And hammered the media for their blind rush to viewers and the owners that are behind the evil.
What makes you think there's not a plan B? Or plans C, D, E and so on? Just because you don't know the plan, and can't see it, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Plan B is obvious, and baked into the Constitution: The Vice President, Kamala Harris.
 

Louis XVI

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It's super telling that Biden trusted Harris so much for 2024 that...he decided to run.
??

A guy who wanted to be President all his life, ran three times, finally got elected, did an excellent job, and wants to remain president…just because he doesn’t trust his VP to succeed him? That’s just silly.
 

KobayashiSaru

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People really need to stop thinking of their votes as some sort of pledge of allegiance to the actual person on the ballot, or a referendum on their personal values. It was this mentality that got Trump in office in the first place.

You're voting for an administration, for direction of policy. Hell, at this point you're voting on the future of democracy in this country. But I'm sure you'll feel good about your personal moral purity when immigrants, trans folks, journalists and left-wing activists are being rounded up and put into camps. I'm mad as hell to be in this position at all to begin with as well, but I'm not about to throw my fellow human beings under the bus to sate my ego. If Biden wins, we will at least have the opportunity to hold the Democratic party to task (if people actually fucking organize in large numbers this time.... and not waiting until the next election season or even midterms). Or it's just all over.
 
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SteveF

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It isn't a choice. You're getting evil. That's what's going to happen.

The "Good" side can't mount any kind of meaningful defense to stave off "Evil". Because the "Good" side has decided that the only thing that matters is that a declining octogenarian thinks he gave it the ol' college try.

What's the saying? "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."

Well, Joe Biden has decided to typify that statement. Unless he steps aside or he or Trump just drops dead between now and November, the US is screwed.

Difficult not to ponder if progressives aren't being manipulated by foreign powers who would benefit from Trump at this point. A few months ago, I was getting text messages from friends bemoaning how they couldn't possibly support Biden. Now suddenly it's circle the wagons for a loser. Plus being increasingly vocal about how much non-progressive Democrats suck.
 

Delor

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People really need to stop thinking of their votes as some sort of pledge of allegiance to the actual person on the ballot, or a referendum on their personal values.

You're voting for an administration, for direction of policy. Hell, at this point you're voting on the future of democracy in this country. But I'm sure you'll feel good about your personal moral purity when immigrants, trans folks, journalists and left-wing activists are being rounded up and put into camps.

Man, the anti-progressive soundbites that everyone has been slinging for eight years now just won't die, will they, no matter how inappropriate to the topic at hand. This has nothing to do with "moral purity". Biden's policy isn't even in the discussion on the anti-Biden side here; this is all about his wellness. Likewise, the loudest voices in this outcry are not coming from anyone typically targeted with the "purity test" bullshit.
(one might also note that even arming a genocide barely shifted the needle on Biden, so maybe "moral purity" was never that strong a force in American politics to begin with, but I digress...)

You want to talk about "you're voting for an administration," you should be making posts like Nekojin's post on page 50 of the other thread not this braindead, reflexive circular firing squad nonsense.
 
Difficult not to ponder if progressives aren't being manipulated by foreign powers who would benefit from Trump at this point. A few months ago, I was getting text messages from friends bemoaning how they couldn't possibly support Biden. Now suddenly it's circle the wagons for a loser. Plus being increasingly vocal about how much non-progressive Democrats suck.
The President and the media stirring up this shitstorm are all establishment moderate types.

This does suck from a progressive point of view because, like, we’re mostly all supporting your guy but he’s not able to give a good speech. He’s the compromise: blah, but electable. Connected. Media savvy. Experienced. Running a tightly orchestrated campaign.

If I wanted to support a candidate that was shit at campaigning but with lots of heart, there are I’d be pushing for some socialist party nobody has ever heard of.
 
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CPX

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??

A guy who wanted to be President all his life, ran three times, finally got elected, did an excellent job, and wants to remain president…just because he doesn’t trust his VP to succeed him? That’s just silly.

You're right, it's silly to think he cares about others now. Trump can win as long as he gave it his all, right?
 
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CPX

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That’s maybe about a tenth as clever as you seem to think it is. Why waste time with posts like this?

Go gaslight someone else. If Trump is an existential threat to democracy, the person leading the effort opposing him should fucking say so since he won't have to live with the consequences should he fail.
 

Louis XVI

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Go gaslight someone else. If Trump is an existential threat to democracy, the person leading the effort opposing him should fucking say so since he won't have to live with the consequences should he fail.
Not clear what any of this has to do with anything that you or I have been posting. (And gaslighting? Huh?)
 

Crolis

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People really need to stop thinking of their votes as some sort of pledge of allegiance to the actual person on the ballot, or a referendum on their personal values. It was this mentality that got Trump in office in the first place.

You're voting for an administration, for direction of policy. Hell, at this point you're voting on the future of democracy in this country. But I'm sure you'll feel good about your personal moral purity when immigrants, trans folks, journalists and left-wing activists are being rounded up and put into camps. I'm mad as hell to be in this position at all to begin with as well, but I'm not about to throw my fellow human beings under the bus to sate my ego. If Biden wins, we will at least have the opportunity to hold the Democratic party to task (if people actually fucking organize in large numbers this time.... and not waiting until the next election season or even midterms). Or it's just all over.

2 responses to this.

1) We already are aware of this and most of the people, let's call them the choir, you are preaching to already votes straight ticket Democrat. I certainly do.
2) Let's make a deal, I'll stop considering it important who is actually running for President and instead focus on the administration I'm bringing in the second these egomaniac boomers treat it the same way. You aren't fit Joe, turn your administration over to someone else, after all the head of that administration apparently doesn't fucking matter.
 

Crolis

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What makes you think there's not a plan B? Or plans C, D, E and so on? Just because you don't know the plan, and can't see it, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Plan B is obvious, and baked into the Constitution: The Vice President, Kamala Harris.

Glad they are slow walking this plan. Absolutely no need to inform voters, be transparent, etc. 8 days between their debate disaster and a slightly less disastrous interview are great. No need to show the President past 8PM. This is all going according to plan A for sure.
 

SunRaven01

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/// OFFICIAL MODERATION NOTICE ///

This thread has long since stopped being about predicting whether or not Biden will be replaced before the upcoming convention, and turned into just another venue to complain about Biden in general, and as such it's merely duplicating discussion being held in the Presidential Election thread. I'm going to give you about twenty-four hours to wrap up in here, and then you can move to the other thread.
 

Nekojin

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Glad they are slow walking this plan. Absolutely no need to inform voters, be transparent, etc. 8 days between their debate disaster and a slightly less disastrous interview are great. No need to show the President past 8PM. This is all going according to plan A for sure.
When was the last time you got any insight into a presidential candidate's strategic plans? Keep in mind that any strategy shared to the public is inherently shared to the opposition. Keeping their cards close to the vest is SOP.

... And why do I feel like I'm repeating an argument from four years ago?
 

Crolis

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When was the last time you got any insight into a presidential candidate's strategic plans? Keep in mind that any strategy shared to the public is inherently shared to the opposition. Keeping their cards close to the vest is SOP.

... And why do I feel like I'm repeating an argument from four years ago?

I mean we now know what Plan A was, hide his cognitive decline from voters long enough to say they have no choice when it comes out.

Given what we’ve seen since the debate, not convinced there is a plan B.
 
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GohanIYIan

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When was the last time you got any insight into a presidential candidate's strategic plans? Keep in mind that any strategy shared to the public is inherently shared to the opposition. Keeping their cards close to the vest is SOP.

... And why do I feel like I'm repeating an argument from four years ago?
Like a week and a half ago? We've never had a presidential debate earlier than October before, and the Biden campaign was pretty clear on their strategic thinking in negotiating to have one in June. The idea was to remind voters how much they dislike Trump, and reassure them that Biden still has it.

I'm sure there's some details they keep secret, but sharing the broad strokes is pretty common. And something like "you're losing in a half dozen swing states, how are you going to fix that?" is very much broad strokes territory. That's not a problem you solve by deploying door knockers in a particular city in a way your opponent didn't expect.
 

Louis XVI

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Like a week and a half ago? We've never had a presidential debate earlier than October before, and the Biden campaign was pretty clear on their strategic thinking in negotiating to have one in June. The idea was to remind voters how much they dislike Trump, and reassure them that Biden still has it.
I think the fact that the Biden campaign was willing to break precedent and hold a debate this early to show that Biden still has it suggests that they actually think that he still has it. His debate performance came as a surprise to the team, which could explain some of the delay in developing a forceful response. This also reinforces the notion that the debate performance was at least somewhat a flukish one-off rather than a revelation of Biden’s true status that’s somehow been kept under wraps for months or years.
 

Thank You and Best of Luck!

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I think the fact that the Biden campaign was willing to break precedent and hold a debate this early to show that Biden still has it suggests that they actually think that he still has it. His debate performance came as a surprise to the team, which could explain some of the delay in developing a forceful response.
Or also because their candidate does not in fact "still have it"?

Because with a candidate that does "still have it", the forceful response is a rapid, multi-venue press junket, and that doesn't take this long to put together for the Presidential campaign of a sitting President. At least according to some of the people who were responsible for that sort of thing for prior Presidential campaigns, both Republicans and Democrats.

So what you're really saying is, it's taking them a long time to put together a forceful response where they're able to successfully obfuscate that their candidate does not in fact "still have it". Unfortunately, they've been trying to do that (e.g. the Stephanopoulos interview), and even under those circumstances they're not looking so great.

This also reinforces the notion that the debate performance was at least somewhat a flukish one-off rather than a revelation of Biden’s true status that’s somehow been kept under wraps for months or years.
If it weren't for the available audio & video evidence of numerous other instances where this sort of thing has happened before, then I'd totally agree with you.

I've only ever seen two people read teleprompter notes like they're part of the actual script... Joe Biden and Ron Burgundy.

I didn't even know that was a thing until The Daily Show put together their segment footage. It's... rough to watch... to say the least.
 
Or also because their candidate does not in fact "still have it"?

Because with a candidate that does "still have it", the forceful response is a rapid, multi-venue press junket, and that doesn't take this long to put together for the Presidential campaign of a sitting President. At least according to some of the people who were responsible for that sort of thing for prior Presidential campaigns, both Republicans and Democrats.

So what you're really saying is, it's taking them a long time to put together a forceful response where they're able to successfully obfuscate that their candidate does not in fact "still have it". Unfortunately, they've been trying to do that (e.g. the Stephanopoulos interview), and even under those circumstances they're not looking so great.


If it weren't for the available audio & video evidence of numerous other instances where this sort of thing has happened before, then I'd totally agree with you.

I've only ever seen two people read teleprompter notes like they're part of the actual script... Joe Biden and Ron Burgundy.

I didn't even know that was a thing until The Daily Show put together their segment footage. It's... rough to watch... to say the least.
Trump did it recently:
 

Thank You and Best of Luck!

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Thank you for that. Well, then I think the best way forward is to just make a bunch of super cuts where they're both having a series of strokes and aneurysms in front of a live audience, and file reports with the authorities alleging elder abuse for both the RNC and DNC.
 

karolus

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I think the fact that the Biden campaign was willing to break precedent and hold a debate this early to show that Biden still has it suggests that they actually think that he still has it. His debate performance came as a surprise to the team, which could explain some of the delay in developing a forceful response. This also reinforces the notion that the debate performance was at least somewhat a flukish one-off rather than a revelation of Biden’s true status that’s somehow been kept under wraps for months or years.
If that's the case, why the delay and the less-than-stellar Stephanopolous interview a few days later? A strong showing at that interview would have laid a lot to rest.
 

Lt_Storm

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I don't care if it's dementia or other difficulties of aging; a president who struggles to function in evenings and who struggles to communicate without a teleprompter is not fully discharging the office and should never, ever be given four more years. We don't get to pick which days and times a president is needed at her full capabilities. Nor will he win election like this, with such a potent and fruitful attack surface available.

Compare Biden 2024 to Biden 2019 and Biden 2012. Then picture Biden 2028. If this was a GOP candidate, you'd be shouting from the rooftops that they are unfit.
So, you misconstrue what age related decline is like in your pursuit of a fantasy of someone you consider fit magically becoming the candidate? But, of course, even young and fit people have bad days when they aren't fully capable. So it turns out that, pretty much regardless, you need to have methods to deal with it that doesn't depend on one person on desperate days, there is a reason we have a VP and cabinet. The reality is that Biden is running and seems very unlikely to decide to stand down. That's the real answer to the question asked in this thread. Either you can find a way to accept this and support him as well as you can, or you don't and you help elect someone else (most likely Donald Trump).

As for the idea that if this was a GOP candidate I would be screaming they are unfit, you are correct, indeed, I am screaming that in this very thread. But you seem to misunderstand why. Frankly, in a democracy, there are certain prerequisite values which are necessary for someone to be fit for office, values which come before questions of politics, health, intelligence, or any other kind of concern. The first of these is support for accepting the legitimate outcome of elections, and, to day, virtually every GOP candidate for every office in the land fails in this. So, yes, on this criterion alone GOP candidates are utterly unfit for office. This is true regardless of their age, mental capabilities, or any other concern. By virtue of this specific failing, Biden from 2028 is more fit for office than any of them, even if he is a corpse by then. That's sort of my entire point.
 
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