Jobless claims join other data series inching in the direction of yellow caution territory – by New Deal democrat Ever since jobless claims started higher in May, I’ve cautioned that I suspected that unresolved seasonality may be at play. We are now at the point where claims were at their low points for all last […]
Industrial and manufacturing production close to 10 year+ highs in June – by New Deal democrat If the news in housing construction the other morning was cautionary, the news on manufacturing and industrial production was very good. Manufacturing production (red in the graph below) rose 0.4% in June, and is only 0.2% below its post-pandemic […]
Housing permits and starts stabilize, but construction comes close to generating yellow recession caution signal – by New Deal democrat There was good news and bad news in this morning’s report on housing permits, starts, and construction. The good news is that both permits and starts stabilized after last month’s initially reported multi-year lows. The […]
The yellow caution flag on retail consumption is up – by New Deal democrat Retail sales declined -0.1% in June, but since consumer inflation also declined -0.1%, real retail sales were unchanged for the month. There was an upward revision to May which helped out the comparisons slightly, but for the entire first half of […]
The inverted Treasury yield curve: we are in uncharted territory – by New Deal democrat We passed a significant anniversary last week: the spread for the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury has been inverted for over 2 years (blue in the graph below). The 2-year minus 3-month Treasury spread has also been inverted for 20 months […]
Real average nonsupervisory wages near, real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls at, all-time highs – by New Deal democrat Now that we have the CPI reading for June, we can calculate how average wage earners are doing in “real” terms. First, real average hourly nonsupervisory wages increased 0.4% for the second straight month. On a YoY basis, […]
– by New Deal democrat Consumer prices in June failed to show any inflation at all for the second month in a row, as they declined -0.1% following an unchanged reading in May. On a YoY basis inflation decelerated -0.3% to 3.0% (technically 2.98% if you go out one further decimal point), the lowest YoY […]
– by New Deal democrat Ever since jobless claims started higher in May, I’ve cautioned that I suspected that unresolved seasonality may be at play. This week and the next two weeks are the acid test for that hypothesis, because they were the lowest weeks for claims all last summer. And . . . The […]
The leading sectors of the labor market are still generally trending positive – by New Deal democrat Our economic news drought ends tomorrow with the CPI report, and I’ve beaten the issue of unemployment to death, so today let’s turn to the leading sectors from the Establishment Survey portion of the jobs report, whereas I’ve […]
– by New Deal democrat In my discussion yesterday of why the Sahm Rule might be giving a false signal at present, I noted that “in addition to the 1980-81 double-dip period, significantly the only other time [a big increase in new entrants into the labor force leading up to a recession] even came close […]