Butler likely would need Heat’s help to sign elsewhere next July. What you need to know

Part 2 of a two-part series

When word of Jimmy Butler’s plans to become a free agent next July became known in recent weeks, it didn’t take long to mull the ultimate nightmarish scenario for the Heat:

What if he simply signs into another team’s cap space next July, leaving the Heat with nothing (and just $13 million in cap space potentially, as we explain here, which isn’t nearly enough room to sign a player of similar quality to replace him)?

That’s far less of a concern for the Heat now than it was a week ago.

Here’s why:

At the moment, there’s not a single contender with the cap space to simply sign Butler next summer, though a couple of good teams could position themselves to do so. (More on that shortly.)

There’s not a single contender, as presently constituted, that could pay Butler a 2025-26 salary on par with the $52.4 million he would be owed by Miami that season if he exercises his player option.

Several teams that would have seemed sensible fits for Butler have filled lots of open cap space in 2025-26, leaving them without the ability to simply sign Butler next summer to a deal starting in the $52 million range (which is Paul George’s first-year 76ers salary).

That group of championship contenders that now cannot accommodate Butler into cap space (without needing the Heat to facilitate a sign and trade) includes Philadelphia, Oklahoma City and Dallas (presuming Kryie Irving re-signs with the Mavericks).

Also, among West teams, Denver, Minnesota, Sacramento, Golden State, Phoenix and New Orleans could not achieve max space next summer without significantly cutting salary. It would be impossible for the Lakers if Anthony Davis (due $57.6 million in 2025-26) and LeBron James are at their market salaries. And the Suns would be out of the question.

Among East contenders, Boston and Indiana would not have the cap space for Butler and Milwaukee wouldn’t as long as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are under contract.

The Knicks could not sign Butler into space, assuming Jalen Brunson gets a big new deal as he deserves, even if Julius Randle leaves in free agency. The Cavaliers couldn’t simply sign Butler, either.

Though Brooklyn has appealed to Butler in the past, the Nets’ decision to rebuild make them an unlikely fit, though the Nets would have plenty of cap space.

Orlando now couldn’t sign Butler into cap space, either, after committing tens of millions in dollars to their 2025-26 payroll in recent days.

So all of the aforementioned (except Brooklyn) could not simply sign Butler into space like the 76ers did with George, unless they shed a lot of salary.

So what teams could still fit Butler into significant space next summer, without needing the Heat’s sign-and-trade cooperation, under the parameters of a projected $154.6 million cap in 2025-26?

One option could be Houston, which reportedly now wants to win as quickly as possible. Butler was born in Houston and grew up and attended high school 40 miles away.

Houston could clear the space needed on a max extension to Butler if it holds off on an extension with Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green until next summer, if it does not exercise a $44.8 million team option on Fred Van Vleet in the summer of 2025 and if it finds a team willing to take Dillon Brooks’ $21 million salary into cap space next summer.

If Houston dumps Van Vleet but keeps Brooks, it could still clear out close to $50 million depending on what Green, in particular, makes in the first year of a new contract.

Green would have a cap hold of $31.2 million and Sengun about $16.3 million (well below what his actual salary likely would be) if they don’t sign extensions until next summer. So while Houston doesn’t have the space now for Butler next summer, there are ways to create it.

After trading for Harrison Barnes (set to earn $19 million in 2025-26), the Spurs no longer have the space to sign Butler into space and pair him with Victor Wembanyama, though it would be easier for the Spurs to clear out the space than it would for most other teams mentioned in this piece. That could be appealing if Wembanyama takes the next step to All NBA this season and if the Spurs become a playoff contender.

The Clippers, who could appeal to Butler, would have at least $35 million to offer Butler next summer if they take on no more multiyear money before then. But they don’t have the space to make a max offer to Butler next summer (barring a trade) because they already have $106 million committed in 2025-26 to Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Norman Powell.

So Butler signing with a team into cap space — the ultimate worst-case scenario for Miami — appears highly unlikely unless Houston, the Clippers or Spurs cut salary.

Here’s the other obstacle for Butler if he leaves the Heat: Some teams that might want him next summer will not, by league rule, be permitted to trade for him if acquiring his salary leaves that team over the projected $195 million first apron.

That group of teams that would not be able to acquire Butler in a sign-and-trade (next summer) with their current payrolls (and give him a max contract or close to it) include Phoenix (even if Miami got Kevin Durant in return), the Knicks (even if Randle is included, presuming Brunson gets a new deal as expected) and Philadelphia (presuming Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and George aren’t traded).

Teams that could pursue Butler in sign and trades, with their current payrolls, include Denver (if Aaron Gordon leave next summer or if Gordon is part of a package dealt to Miami in return), the Lakers (but Miami or other teams would need to take Austin Reeves and a bunch of Los Angeles backups and likely would have no incentive to do that) and Dallas (though it’s complicated).

Butler originally wanted an extension from the Heat this summer, but then changed his mind after Miami did not offer one. He now intends to play out this season and not sign an extension with any team and will become a free agent in the summer of 2025. The Heat is not shopping Butler, according to a source.

There are risks for both sides if Butler goes ahead with plans to enter free agency next summer. But Butler likely would need the Heat’s cooperation to end up on a contender, with several contenders likely not viable for cap reasons. At the moment, there’s not a single good team that could simply sign him into space, as the 76ers did with George.