The Big Three Indexes Closed Higher For The Week, S&P And Nasdaq Make New All-Time Highs
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The big three indexes all closed higher on Friday, with the S&P and Nasdaq, once again, each making another new all-time high.
They were also up for the week, making it 1 up week in a row for the Dow, 1 up week in a row for the S&P (and the 4th up week out of 5), and 5 up weeks in a row for the Nasdaq. But the small-cap Russell 2000, and the mid-cap S&P 400 were down on Friday and for the week, making it 1 down week in a row for the Russell, and 2 down weeks in a row for the S&P 400.
Friday's Employment Situation Report was somewhat of a mixed bag. The headline number showed there were 206,000 new jobs created in the month of June vs. the consensus for 189,000. But private sector jobs were 'only' up 136,000 vs. estimates for 160,000, while public sector jobs were up 70,000 vs. estimates for 29,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% vs. last month's 4.0% and views for the same. The participation rate ticked up to 62.6% from last month's 62.5%, but was in line with estimates. And average hourly earnings were up 0.3% m/m as expected, and down from last month's 0.4%, while the y/y change came in at 3.9%, also as expected, and down from last month's 4.1% pace.
We also saw downward revisions to April and May's numbers. April was revised lower by -57,000 jobs to 108,000 (from 165,000), with May being revised down by -54,000 to 218,000 (from 272,000).
The biggest job creation came from the following sectors: Government jobs were up 70,000, Heath Care added 49,000 jobs, Social Assistance jobs were up 34,000, and Construction added 27,000 jobs.
On the downside was Retail Trade, which shed -9,000 jobs, and Professional and Business Services lost -17,000 jobs.
The Fed has been looking for signs of a moderating jobs market. And despite the higher-than-expected headline number, signs of easing were evident in both the private sector jobs, the increase in unemployment, and the downward revisions for the previous months.
Last month, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said, "in the absence of a significant weakening in the labor market, I need to see several more months of good inflation data before I would be comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy."
The last 2 months of inflation data shows we're back on the disinflationary path. And I would say Friday's jobs report qualifies as a weakening labor market.
The numbers also comport with what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said just last week, that we're seeing a "gradual cooling in demand, gradual rebalancing in the labor market, while we continue to make progress on inflation. So, we're getting good results here."
Another earnings season is upon us. And that's great news since stocks typically go up during earnings season. Q2 earnings season officially begins next week on Wednesday, July 17, when Alcoa reports after the close. But it unofficially begins this week when we hear from big banks JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup on Friday.
After all of the major indexes closed higher in the first half of the year, they are poised to do it again in the second half, since a strong first half typically means more gains to follow in the second half.
Additionally, stocks historically perform well in Presidential election years.
So, there's plenty of reason to expect the gains to continue.
See you tomorrow,
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Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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