Summer could be warmer than average in New Hampshire

STORMWATCH 9 SUMMER OUTLOOK. THE START OF LAST SUMMER WAS ONE OF THE BEST IN RECENT MEMORY. MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WAS FULL OF COBALT BLUE SKIES AND WARM DAYS. THEN THE BOTTOM DROPPED OUT. RELENTLESS RAINS AND FLOODING PLAGUED THE REST OF SUMMER. THE TORNADO A TORNADO EVEN TORE THROUGH SOME COMMUNITIES IN THE MONADNOCK REGION, AND WHEN IT WASN’T STORMY, A SMOKY HAZE FILLED OUR SKY FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THEN WINTER CAME AND IT WAS MORE OF THE SAME. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BROUGHT EVEN MORE RAIN AND POUNDED THE SEACOAST WITH MAJOR FLOODING. MANY WANT TO KNOW HOW WILL SUMMER PLANS BE WASHED OUT AGAIN? WE CAN CREDIT A STRONGER THAN USUAL EL NINO TO MUCH OF THE WARM AND STORMY WEATHER WE’VE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS, BUT THIS YEAR, EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A LA NINA. THAT MEANS WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ARE TRENDING COOLER THAN AVERAGE, AND THAT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER PATTERN. CLOSER TO HOME, THE STORMWATCH 9 TEAM LOOKED AT PAST SUMMERS WHERE WE TRANSITIONED FROM EL NINO TO LA NINA, AND WHILE THERE WERE NO CORRELATION PATTERNS IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS, SUMMER TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE AVERAGE IN FOUR OF THE FIVE YEARS WE SAMPLED. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE WATER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS COULD PROMOTE A PATTERN OF COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEST COAST, WHILE SENDING HEAT NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THAT LEAVES US RIGHT ON THE EDGE HERE IN NEW ENGLAND, MEANING WE COULD SWAY BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN HOT, HUMID DAYS AND MORE TEMPERATE CONDITIONS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE TROPICS YET AGAIN THIS SUMMER. A DEVELOPING LA NINA, ALONG WITH WARM WATER TEMPERATURES, COULD SPELL A BURST OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER. PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER, HERE ARE OUR THOUGHTS ON HOW SUMMER COULD LOOK. WE ARE LEANING TOWARD ANOTHER WARMER THAN AVERAGE SEASON, ALONG WITH SOME BURSTS OF HIGHER HUMIDITY AS FAR AS RAINFALL, WE THINK THE SEASON WILL HAVE ITS FAIR SHARE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, THOUGH IT IS VERY UNLIKELY TO RIVAL THE EXCESSIVE RAINS. WE SAW LAST SUMMER. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LONG RANGE FORECAST, IT ONLY TAKES A WEEK LONG STORMY STRETCH OR A ROGUE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO MAKE OR BREAK THE SEASONAL RAINFALL TALLY. SUMMER OFFICIALLY BEGINS ON JUNE