Tracking the Tropics: Looking ahead at the 2024 hurricane season

From sunny central Florida. I'm West two meteorologist, Eric Burriss and from Savannah, Georgia. I'm WJCL 22 chief meteorologist Jeremy Nelson. All right. So Jeremy *** little late but tracking the tropics on *** Tuesday and, uh, happy to say at least for now there is nothing really going on out there. Yeah, it's *** nice lull that we're experiencing right now in the Atlantic Basin. Uh, *** couple of factors. We're in *** quieter part of the weather pattern. We've had some Saharan dust across the Atlantic Basin and that busy start to July is now behind us. So our lull likely continues. At least the National Hurricane Center says at least another seven days. We're thinking though, maybe late July into August, we'll start to see at least some lows out there in the Atlantic once again. Yeah, I would, I would certainly, I would certainly think so, especially considering the fact that as we continue pushing, pushing the atmosphere should quiet down some of that Saharan dust. And, uh, you know, you, it's kind of interesting just by looking at this infrared satellite imagery, you can actually see so much of that Saharan dust out there Yeah. And I don't know if you have, um, as we go through this, that other product that, uh, shows kind of that tan color. But, yeah, it's, uh, the dusty dry air really, um, just suppresses any, uh, moisture, uh, any tropical development out there and if something does develop, it really has to be in *** sheltered area kind of away from that. Yes. Yes, it does. Yeah. So, uh, let me just, I'm just kind of pulling this together here just to kind of show some of that Saharan dust. But, uh, yeah, Jeremy, I think, I think the overall idea is that, I mean, look at that Atlantic Basin there, like the orange absolutely is taking over. And so that kind of tells you and if I run this through time, um, and, and, and you know, we're talking about it here locally, but you can just kind of see that blast of Saharan dust reaching the southeastern United States. So, for my area for your area, Jeremy, we're probably gonna have some pretty sunrises and sunsets this weekend into next week. Yeah. And, uh, no tropical activity around here. So, uh, then we'll start to look towards, uh, maybe late July into August. Uh, something that we were looking at that we can talk about maybe here in just *** moment because I know, uh, we'll go over some of the, the numbers that we have so far this season, we've had three name storms and there you can see, uh, the peak of the season is the 10th of September. So we're not uh even uh within *** month of that. So we ramp up as we go into the middle part and then uh peak season, I always say goes about eight weeks to the early part of October. So the absolute peak of the season climatologically speaking is on September the 10th, right? And you know, *** lot of people talk about how hurricane season should start right on June 1st. And it should be crazy, crazy, crazy. And you know, I've even gotten and I don't know about you Jeremy, but I've had *** few people asking like, why have we not had so many storms? And, and my response is like, we have not like 90% of hurricane season ahead of us. We are, we are not even to the beginning of the mountain yet. We're just kind of walking to the mountain still when you look at the season by the numbers. Yeah. And by the numbers so far, I don't know if you have that up, you mentioned uh so far we've had three name storms here in the Atlantic Basin. All those kind of that, that late June into July time frame average for this point in the Atlantic hurricane season is two last year. At this point, we had five and I did go back to 2020 which was incredibly busy season and Esaias formed right at the end of July and that was already the I named Storm. So I think we were around nine named storms to kick off August in 2020. So we are not expecting that. Maybe we somehow sneak one storm in yet in July, maybe two if we start to, uh, see something ramp up here. But, uh, yeah, we'll have to watch this closely. Yeah. Yeah. No doubt about it. You know, the season is going to progress, the season is going to get more and more active. So, you know, when we compare the season this season to last year, um, three name storms, we had five through today. Ok. So we're running behind necessarily, uh in terms of the named storms, but that doesn't mean that it's *** quiet season. We've already had that uh category five hurricane. So it is what it is. When we look at the other numbers, we've had 11.75 named storm days this year. Last year we'd had 13. So the metrics are there. But again, average Jeremy through today, 5.8 named storm days. Yeah. So we're basically doubling that right now and you can see last year was also running, um, above average, I would say though the big separator so far this year clearly has been that we had that um category five hurricane, *** major hurricane already and also *** landfall along the US coastline of category one hurricane. So, um, it's been *** busy start of sorts, definitely with Beryl. But, um, outside of Beryl, it's been very quiet. Uh moving forward. Hopefully the rest of this month will continue to see *** bit of *** lull. Uh We are really starting to look ahead though towards August where we think the activity will ramp up. Yeah, no doubt about it because first off *** part of our long range hurricane forecast counted on that. Um And, you know, the overall pattern is, is kind of shaping up that way as well. Jeremy. Uh and, and one way that we can look at this and I want you to explain what the CFS is and, and we'll kind of take you through that. Ok. So, I mean, we could look at probably *** good dozen different computer models every day and then you start throwing in ensembles, uh which run the models uh every which way uh you can kind of get buried in all this model data. So, uh we try to pick out whatever works best for myself for Eric, for really any meteorologist and that kind of Sprinkle in some of these other models. And, and we always love to look long range and certainly I think anyone uh watching this knows that. Uh but one of the models is AC FS model and that goes out 700 plus hours. So what it can do for us is sort of give us the hint of, hey, tropical activity may pick up. And then we really compare it to uh the forecast we made on March the first for not only hotspots but all also for uh some of those specific areas in the Atlantic Basin. So what we're looking at right now and again, this is forever out. So this is more of the middle part of August, but we had *** couple um windows in August where we're really watching, One was about the fifth to the 12th. Another one comes up around the 18th to I think it was about the 26th or so. And this model usually doesn't have, um, it's not like the GFS which seems like it's blowing up tropical things all the time in *** longer range. Uh This model though is starting to show the closer we get to maybe the 16th, 17th, 18th, uh *** hurricane forming and this has been pretty consistent with uh developing tropical systems here in uh that middle part of August. Yeah. And, and, and so it's important to remember like, yes, that's *** month out. The CFS is *** super long range model. But when you, you know, we talk *** lot about computer models and it's like consistency breeds confidence. So even if it's *** month out, it's at the very least kind of giving you something to say. All right. All right. I, I'll, I'll, I'll smell what the rock is cooking. We, we'll take *** look and we'll watch it. Right. I mean, I think that that's the, I think that that's the weight we put into the cfss. All right. You're, you're, you're, you're cooking something out there, right. Because that same model though, if you went and looked at it maybe in the early or middle part of, uh, July *** little bit before now it had this, uh, quieter stretch and now it's starting to show some activity ramping up as we get into August. Uh maybe not uh super close initially, probably more like out in the Atlantic. But remember back in June and July, that's where *** lot of these systems originated. They started coming in uh towards the Windward Islands and then uh into the Caribbean. So just because that's showing that one in the Southwest Atlantic doesn't mean that's where it would end up or it would look like that. But it is hinting that, hey, we get into August, the activity is going to pick up. Yeah. And I think that I think that this should not come from, you know, is any right? That's, that's exactly what our hurricane forecast had called for. So at least in terms of timing, no surprise there, in terms of um climatologically speaking, no surprise there. So, um you know, we've got this little bit of *** lull and it's *** good opportunity to remember that the lull doesn't last for forever. And it's *** good opportunity to remember Jeremy that um, if you, if you need to get some hurricane supplies as we push into the peak of hurricane season, it's, it's not the worst idea in the world. No, not at all. It's good to be prepared the entire season and, and look at Texas, they had to be prepared early in the season this year along their coastline is *** hurricane made landfall, uh, as barrel, uh, moved to shore there so good to be ready where whether it's *** beginning, middle end of the season. And as you saw last year or *** couple of years ago, along your uh east coast of Florida, you had *** November hurricane, right? And that just goes to show these things can come any month and there have been tropical systems every single month of the year. So I think that um to that point, OK, we know we have to watch it and we're not even to the beginning of, of the real peak of hurricane season, water temperatures are still hot. They did come down *** little bit in kind of those um areas impacted by Barrel. But I would say that in terms of impacts Texas really did get *** significant hit from Beryl even though it was *** lower end hurricane. Would you not agree? Having looked at the data and, and, and the images there? Yeah. And I think uh it also, it's all about where your placement is in relation to some of the strongest wins and look where that sort of northeast eye wall went, it went right over *** very heavy populated area and that's where they saw some hurricane Force wings. Yeah. Yeah, Mike Vera is saying, uh, prepares, right. I bought *** generator after hurricane Wilma and thank God, I haven't had to put *** drop of gas or oil in it. I would also say though, like, make sure to, to run the thing because if you, you know those, those pieces of equipment, if you don't run them, they, they don't necessarily work when you need them to. Right? And I see you have *** graphic maybe ready to go here. Uh That's talking about the ace. So I'll let you uh take that one, right? All right. So talking about the ace. Um think of the, the term ace is accumulated cyclonic energy. Um So basically the longer storm lives, the stronger storm is, it's all *** metric. So this year we've had 36.1 ace points. The 30 year average through today is 6.7. And last year to date we had had 10. So that's an important thing because last year through today, we'd had five name storms. We only had three this year. But look at how much higher our ace score is Jeremy. That, that is *** good example of how this year while we may not have had as many systems, there was barrel, which was such *** significantly stronger system than what we had seen last year and it was *** long duration system. I mean, that stuck around for *** long time from the southern Windward islands as *** major hurricane made that pass, uh, brushing by Jamaica, the Cayman Islands. Then the Yucatan reemerged over the Gulf. So, I think from the time it initially formed, maybe as *** tropical storm or an invest or something there, it took 13 days before it moved to the Texas coast. Yeah. So, at least for now though, you know, the good news is we, we look to the tropics and, and I'll just, I'll point this out real fast. We don't see anything really out there. But if I, if I zoom in, you know, off the coast of Africa, there are *** few decent waves. It wouldn't surprise me if these waves at least fall apart because just because they're rolling off the coast of Africa doesn't mean that they're gonna get their sea legs. And so just by looking at satellite, it doesn't mean that these things are gonna become big bad hurricanes. There's *** ton of Saharan dust out there. Um, but it, it's, it's *** good moment to take *** breath and say, all right, we're still tracking the tropics, but for now there's just nothing going on out there. Yeah, pretty quiet. And, uh, that dusty dryer can hang, hang around as long as it would. Like. The only exception, of course is when it gets to you and I allergy sufferers, you know, those kinds of situations that, that's not ideal but, um, it is what it is. Uh, let's see, anybody out there have any questions, comments concerns anything like that. We'll ask that. Uh, Jeremy. Do you have anything else that you wanted to add? No, I don't think so. It's kind of *** nice little, uh, lull here, but I would say by the time, uh, we meet up again next week, we'll be looking to head to, um, August because we'll be, uh, not that far away from it and we'll have *** little better idea. Maybe, uh, that front, maybe, uh, *** week and *** half or so that we had outline in the front part of the month and then the back half of the month. And, uh, yeah, I think August could be busy. We may, uh, move into *** bit of *** lull there again and then, especially, uh, back half of September into the start of October. That's probably another window here, uh, that we could have, uh, some busy time. So I think that's probably the bulk of our activity for the season. At least, uh, through the early part of October, we had that late June into July busy stretch. We'll have that one in August and then maybe back half of September, early October. So, um, it's looking like, uh, three very, uh, probably active stretches coming up. Yeah. Um, just *** couple of questions that are coming in here. Um So Mike's asking, does Saharan dust get factored in with storm predictions? You know, I, I mean, I, I think that we just know Saharan dust is going to get thrown out there. Um It's not *** major player, at least in our methodology, Jeremy. Yeah. And I mean, I think there's Saharan dust each and every year, sometimes it's probably *** little worse than others And this may not be our only round this year if we get back into this part of the pattern. Um some of our winds are in the same direction, we'll probably get another um uh plume of dust that ends up moving its way across the Atlantic Basin. This probably isn't the last one of the year, but it may be the last one of this little lull that we're seeing. Yeah. Yeah, 100% Chad's asking, do you think that hurricane Barrel will be upgraded once all the damage is uh accessed? I I would think not, I would just think that that what the folks in Texas got was *** solid category one and *** good example of why you can't write off any storm no matter its intensity. Uh Thoughts Jeremy. Yeah. And *** lot of times they say that the wins are supposed to be the sustained wins for the category. So, um sometimes uh there's *** little bit of, of leeway there. But um I think *** category one, some of the chasers that were there. Uh, I did have some wind gusts that may have been *** little bit higher. But they, uh, again, technically, I think are supposed to go off the sustained winds. But, um, it's all about impacts when it comes to these storms. Uh, obviously, when Irma moved, uh, brush by the Savannah area, we had tremendous amount of storm surge and by that time it was only *** tropical storm. So uh it's really more about impacts than categories and stuff like that. Yeah. Well, and, and to add to that, right, like look at uh Nicole, look at uh look at, you know, you look at all the different storms that have hit your area, hit my area from the strongest of strong to the weakest of we like Fay is *** great example, Fay was moving through central Florida was not *** very strong storm. This is like 2006, 2000 seven dropped 14 inches of rain in one area. I mean, it was *** massive like Noah's archetype flood event and it's one of those cases of we didn't know it was gonna be so bad, it was weak and it's like that you can't, that's why the National Hurricane Center wants to go away from even using category identification and that's why they're not giving this category six idea *** single thought, right? Yeah, I think it, it has to be uh heavily on impact days coming up. And I think that's why starting in August they're doing that experimental, um, the cone where they're going to start, including inland areas. Um, some of those, uh, watches and warnings that are going to be in place, those will be highlighted on the cone. Yeah, it's, it's, that's the important part. How is it going to impact you? And so I think that as television meteorologists, Jeremy, your job and my job is to always try to um better our messaging. And I think, you know, doing interactive venues like this is ***, is *** great step forward because when there is stuff to track, it's people asking questions and *** we can help them out. But b it also gives us um the ability to almost use it. I hate to say like *** focus group where we can feed off of your questions and say, oh, that's *** question that I should be talking about on TV. Right. Yeah, I mean, we, we all learn from each other here. So uh kind of what your questions are or what we know is important to uh other viewers as well. Yeah. Yeah. So, all right, that's all I've got my friend. Uh I'm going to try and be able to make, I don't believe I have anything for next Tuesday at 10 a.m. Powers that be above me got my 10 a.m. slot today. Jeremy already slapped my wrist, my apologies. No, that's all right. It ended up working out. Well, uh, people are probably hopefully on their lunch break, uh, maybe, uh, checking out the tropics here and then, uh, we'll do our best next Tuesday to be back at 10 a.m. He literally told me block this off every Tuesday through hurricane season for us. I'm like, ok, I'm sorry. So, all right, we'll, we'll get it for next time. But anyway, listen, thank you all for hanging out. Uh, nice and quiet and let's hope to keep it that way from beautiful and at the moment quiet. Sun, central Florida, I'm West, do meteorologist, Eric Burris and in Savannah, Georgia, I'm WJCL 22. Chief meteorologist, Jerry Nelson. Bye guys.