*Errors and omissions excepted (E&OE)
Good morning and good afternoon.
We are now more than 19 months into the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, across the Western Pacific Region, 6 million people have been infected and more than 83,000 people have lost their lives.
Until a few weeks ago, our Region had fared comparatively well, with around 2% of global cases and deaths. But several countries in the Western Pacific are now experiencing surges – in part driven by the Delta variant – and our share of global cases and deaths is rising sharply. In the first 3 weeks of August, our Region reported over 10% of new global cases and more than 8% of new global deaths.
In some places, surges are pushing health systems dangerously close to what we call ‘the red line’: where the number of critical cases exceeds ICU capacity, and hospitals can no longer provide the care that people need.
This is a serious problem for all of us. But it weighs especially heavily on doctors, nurses and other health care workers. They have worked day and night for a year and a half, and some have not been home to see their families for months.
Several factors are contributing to surges – to explain this further and provide an update on the outbreak in the Region, I’d like to hand over to Dr Matsui.
[***presentation***]
As you have just heard, the Delta variant is now a real threat – which is testing the capacity of even the strongest public health systems in our Region.
Delta’s higher transmissibility means clusters of cases are quickly leading to bigger outbreaks – especially in the high-risk settings known as the 3Cs: closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings. We’re also seeing more clusters in families: once the virus enters the household, more family members are quickly becoming infected.
This is the reason why many governments in the Region are taking strong and early action – through lockdowns and other measures – to limit transmission and avoid putting more pressure on already stretched health services.
Every country needs to continue doing all that it can to control the virus, carefully assessing and managing the risks in each context. It is especially important for countries which still have few or no cases to remain vigilant. We have seen how quickly Delta can spread once it gets in – and how hard it is to stop.
However, even with all our best efforts, it now seems clear that globally, the virus will not disappear – at least not in the near future. And while the virus is spreading anywhere, every country remains at risk. With this in mind, we see a couple of plausible scenarios for the future.
The first scenario is where our actions allow us to live with the virus. We reduce the risk it poses by making the best use of vaccination and other prevention measures, and respond to flare-ups where they occur with short, targeted measures.
This does not mean giving up on controlling the virus, but is more like how we manage seasonal influenza and other vaccine-preventable diseases: we focus on trying to limit spread, protecting the most vulnerable, and in doing so, reduce the health and broader social impacts of outbreaks.
The second scenario is where other, more dangerous variants are able to evolve – variants that spread even more easily, cause more severe disease, or are resistant to existing vaccines. I’m sure you agree that this scenario – and all of the associated health, social and economic costs – is one we wanted to avoid if possible.
The best way we can do this is by doing everything we can to limit transmission now. Like other viruses, the more people are infected, the more the virus which causes COVID-19 can evolve.
Which of these two scenarios becomes reality depends on which individual and collective actions we choose to take in the weeks and months ahead. So it is in our power to shape the course that the pandemic takes next.
Getting priority populations, especially health workers and older people, and then whole communities, vaccinated as quickly as possible is crucial. But equally critical is continuing with the personal protective behaviors and public health measures that reduce transmission.
Using these tools in combination is the key to limiting spread, and the virus’ ability to mutate into more dangerous variants.
I know that it’s hard to keep asking people to comply with restrictions, and to keep asking governments to apply them when resources are stretched and people are tired. I understand – I am also tired of all of this too. I want to be able to travel again, to see my elderly parents, and for my daughters to see their friends.
But at this critical point in the pandemic, it is up to all of us to stay the course, and do all we can to avoid the second future scenario.
For individuals, this means continuing to wear a mask, and avoiding closed spaces, crowded places and close-contact settings. And of course, getting vaccinated as soon as it becomes your turn.
For businesses and other employers, it means carefully managing and mitigating risks at the workplace.
For health systems, it means staying ready for potential surges, and maintaining essential services to save lives.
And for governments, in addition to rolling out vaccines, it means having the best information to support decision-making and adapting measures based on the local context. It also means taking the right approach to testing, with genomic sequencing to track variants, and contact tracing to find and stamp out clusters early. And taking targeted actions to reach and protect vulnerable groups in high-risk settings.
A lot remains uncertain. But at this critical moment in the pandemic, we must continue to make the best decisions we can, based on experience, shared learning and reliable data, in order to create the future that we want.
It is within our power to reduce the threat of the virus by making the most of every tool we have to fight it today. Doing this will help us get back to something closer to the life we all want.
Just last Friday, I had a video call with a 108-year old woman in rural Cambodia who had just been vaccinated – and she told me she took the vaccine for herself, and to help protect others in her community. Every day I am inspired and motivated by the tremendous resilience and commitment of people like her from across our Region.
We have come this far together, so my message to all of you is this: at this critical phase in the pandemic, let’s stay the course. Working together, we can take control: to protect ourselves and each other, for the sake of all our futures.
Thank you very much.