*Errors and omissions excepted (E&OE)
Thank you, Liv. Good morning and good afternoon to journalists joining us online.
While a few countries are still facing surges, in many countries of the Western Pacific, the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths has now decreased and plateaued. There are also more and more people getting vaccinated, and pressure on hospitals and health systems in many places has eased. In most parts of the Region, things are trending in the right direction.
But in addition to those currently dealing with surges, even in countries which have successfully suppressed the virus, and those which have managed to record zero cases to date – including several Pacific island countrie – we cannot be complacent.
Globally, cases have been increasing for seven consecutive weeks, and the number of deaths has started to rise too – driven largely by the Delta variant and a decrease in the use of protective measures in other parts of the world. And in the past week we have designated a new variant of concern, Omicron.
COVID-19 has now spread all over the world – and we should not be surprised to see more surges in the future. As long as transmission continues, the virus can continue to mutate as the emergence of Omicron demonstrates, reminding us of the need to stay vigilant.
With the upcoming holiday season, we will see more gatherings and movements of people, and the northern hemisphere winter may also bring surges of other respiratory diseases like influenza, alongside COVID-19.
It is clear that this pandemic is far from over. And I know that people are worried about Omicron. I understand. My message today is that we can adapt the way we manage this virus to better cope with the future surges, and reduce their health, social, and economic impacts.
Before I explain more on this, I’ll hand over to our Director of Health Security and Emergency, Dr Babatunde Olowokure, for a more detailed update on the COVID-19 situation globally and in this Region.
---Babatunde presentation---
Thank you, Babatunde.
Unfortunately, some countries around the world are approaching the point where the number of critical cases exceeds their hospital and ICU capacity. In our Region, we call this the “red line”. Once that point is reached, there are very few options other than to re-introduce very strict control measures – to protect health workers and healthcare capacity, and stop deaths going up.
These surges are occurring even in countries where more than 60% of people are vaccinated. Although, thanks to the vaccines’ effectiveness at reducing severe disease, the number of deaths has been much smaller compared to earlier surges.
Vaccines have been a game-changer definitely – but no vaccine can prevent 100% of infections, and vaccinated people can still pass on the infection to others, including the vulnerable. The situation unfolding in other parts of the world at the moment shows that we cannot rely on vaccines alone. But with the vaccines in combination with other measures, we have an opportunity to shift our approach.
As we have heard, Omicron has been designated a variant of concern because of the number of mutations, and because early information suggests it may be more transmissible than other variants of the virus. Border controls can delay the virus coming in and buy time, but every country and every community must prepare for new surges in cases.
The positive news in all this is that none of the information we have currently about Omicron suggests we need to change the direction of our response. Our experience of the last two years, especially in dealing with variants like Delta, provides a guide about what to do now, as well as how to cope with future surges in a more sustainable way.
By calibrating response measures to each country context – using five key tools, in combination – we can avoid the “red line”, and minimize health impacts as well as social and economic disruption. So, let me briefly explain.
The first tool, of course, is vaccines. Where there is high vaccine coverage, especially among those at greatest risk – healthcare and other frontline workers with frequent exposure; and those most vulnerable to severe disease; and communities that have difficulty accessing health services – we can reduce severe illness and deaths.
The second tool is the public health and social measures which we know are effective in suppressing transmission. They remain key in the fight against COVID-19 – including Omicron.
These include individual actions like mask-wearing and keeping physical distance; taking a risk-based approach for particular settings; and population-wide measures including lockdowns, which we want to avoid – given their huge social and economic impacts.
Individual practices such as mask wearing indoors are feasible for all of us to continue, and cause little disruption to our lives. We should all keep these up, to protect ourselves, our families and our communities.
Then there are risk-based approaches, which we can use to maintain important community activities. Schools are a good example. Prolonged school closures have had an enormous negative impact on children and families. The best thing for our children now is to move away from a “zero risk” approach to a risk-based approach – that is, regularly assessing the risks, and adapting practices that mitigate risks. By doing this, schools can safely stay open. The same method of identifying and mitigating risks can be applied to other settings, businesses and events.
The third area relates to how we care for people with COVID-19. Those with asymptomatic or mild illness who are able to self-isolate and recover at home do not need to be in hospital. We need to make sure hospital and ICU beds are kept available for those with severe illness who really need them.
The fourth important tool is surveillance, to detect cases and potential surges early. This is particularly important in places which have kept the virus out, and where there is limited capacity for response. Through active surveillance, we can detect chains of transmission early, and deploy targeted responses.
The fifth and final tool is border control. This is another area where we should apply a risk-based approach, taking into account local capacity and context, and continually calibrating measures based on assessment of evolving risks. This includes the emergence of new variants. In general though, the higher the vaccine coverage and health system capacity, the more open borders can be.
The approach I’ve outlined today is all about adapting, so that we can learn to “live with” the virus over the long term, even when we have new surges in the future.
Let me be very clear: this does not mean giving up on controlling COVID-19. Instead, it means continuously calibrating a combination of tools and actions based on the risks in each local setting, as they evolve over time.
This is what we need to be doing in response to Omicron, based on what we know now, and adapting our response if needed as we learn more about its transmissibility, severity and impact.
We have come a really long way. We’ve worked hard and made many sacrifices over the past two years, doing our best to keep ourselves and each other safe from COVID-19. This is especially the case for healthcare workers, to whom we owe our deepest gratitude.
Where we have high vaccine coverage, maintaining the right mix of public health and social measures, and ensure hospital beds are available for those who need them, we can avoid the “red line” and can continue to open societies and economies.
With a sustainable approach to protective measures, calibrated to each context, we can avoid swinging back and forth between opening up and going back into strict lockdowns.
We can adapt, so that COVID-19 has less impact on our lives in 2022, and we can start to regain – and hopefully retain – a sense of normality.
Thank you very much.