Plurality believes Trump should be kept off 2024 ballots, UMass-Amherst/WCVB national poll finds
More than half of Americans believe that former President Donald Trump is probably or definitely guilty of a crime for conspiring to overturn the results of the last election and a plurality believes he should be barred from appearing on ballots this year, according to the results of a new poll.
Fifty-eight percent of those polled believe Trump is likely or certainly guilty of federal crimes. Among the crucial independent voters, that rate rises to 65%.
The results of the UMass-Amherst/WCVB national poll, released on the eve of a U.S. Supreme Court hearing to review the decision of Colorado's top court that Trump cannot appear on ballots, also found that 41% of respondents support removing the likely Republican nominee from the election.
Among independents, 31% support removing Trump from the election and another 26% said they neither support or oppose the issue.
Supreme Court Justices will be considering for the first time the meaning and reach of a provision of the 14th Amendment barring some people who "engaged in insurrection" from holding public office. The amendment was adopted in 1868, following the Civil War.
Arguments in the case are scheduled for Thursday.
Meanwhile, the poll also found that a majority believes Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas should remove himself from the case because of his wife's alleged lobbying to overturn the election results. Sixty-four percent of those polled said Thomas definitely or probably should take himself off the case.
The national poll is based on responses from 1,064 individuals who answered the survey between Jan. 25 and Jan. 30. The margin of error is 3.7%.
An earlier batch of data from the polling indicated that 53% believed it would be better for the nation if Trump was not running in 2024. Similarly, 57% said they thought it would be better for the nation if President Joe Biden, a Democrat, also wasn't running.
Thirty-seven months after the attack on the U.S. Capitol of Jan. 6, 2021, more than 1,313 people have been charged with crimes for their alleged role in that violent attempt to overturn the election. Of those, 753 have pleaded guilty to various charges, including 233 who admitted to felonies, according to the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia.
Our poll found that support for the ongoing investigation and prosecution effort has declined over the years, from 65% who said they strongly or somewhat support the effort in April 2021 to 52% in the latest poll.