“Boho chic is back!” came the cry when Chemena Kamali unveiled her debut Chloé show in Paris in March, which harked back to both Karl Lagerfeld’s designs for the French house during the 1970s and Phoebe Philo’s helm during the early 2000s. “Is it time to get out my Paddington?” social media commentators asked, in reference to the popular handbag championed by the likes of Kate Bosworth and Nicole Richie.
It may well be. If you needed any more evidence of the cyclical nature of fashion, look no further. Sadly, I don’t have a Paddington stashed at the back of my wardrobe, but I did have a similar experience with a monogrammed Dior Columbus bag that I recently inherited from my mother. During an outing at Paris Fashion Week, one super-chic insider called out, “I love your bag – I’ve always liked it more than the Saddle!” High praise indeed. But there’s no way that my mum could have known that the accessory, purchased at an outlet store during a family holiday in Switzerland back in the 2000s, would still be garnering compliments some two decades later.
It’s why, amid the ever-growing popularity of secondhand fashion, the concept of “future vintage” – modern-day pieces that will be coveted 20 years from now (the designated time in which an item becomes vintage, rather than being just preloved or secondhand) – has come to the fore. But how do you predict what will be desirable decades on, given how fickle fashion’s trend cycle is?
“Anything that’s part of the zeitgeist now, that’s having a moment, is going to be desirable,” says Julie Ann Clauss, professional archivist and founder of The Wardrobe, who’s worked with the likes of Chloë Sevigny, Tom Ford and Carolina Herrera. Considering how quickly fashion moves on to the next thing, “Things might look really different in five years or 10 years and someone will say, ‘Oh, my God, that looks so 2024!’”
For One of a Kind Archive founder Jefferson Ihenacho, the wispy organza Prada dresses that floated down the spring/summer 2024 runway are destined to become “core memories of the season”. The same could be said of Loewe’s effortless belted cutout dresses from autumn/winter 2024 or Rick Owens’s gargantuan inflatable boots, which Ihenacho predicts will be “referenced in fashion literature for years to come”.
A boundary-pushing approach to design is what Byronesque’s Gill Linton looks for when sourcing future vintage. While there’s always going to be a resale market for Hermès Birkins and Chanel 2.55 bags, it’s not necessarily these pieces that experts want to get their hands on. “It has to have something different, otherwise our future vintage isn’t going to be very creative or inspiring,” Linton says. “It’s important that we keep on putting out the weird, avant-garde, obscure things.”
Among the current crop of designers, Jonathan Anderson stands out as someone who is consistently challenging the status quo. His breastplate dresses and anthurium creations for Loewe from spring/summer 2022 and 2023 respectively – both seen on Zendaya – are already making their way into archives. Meanwhile, Matthieu Blazy’s trompe-l’oeil plaid shirt and jeans for Bottega Veneta, modelled by Kate Moss on the SS23 runway and actually made from leather, are sure to be highly collectible in the future, given the amount of buzz they continue to generate.
Indeed, runway and red-carpet looks will always be the most sought-after. “Any time that you have a piece that has that extra little bit of provenance, those are absolutely pieces that are going to be in a long-term collector’s eye,” Cherie Balch, vintage dealer and founder of Shrimpton Couture, says. “You can say, ‘Look, here’s this beautiful woman that wore it – look how beautiful it was.’” It’s why Daniel Roseberry’s sculptural Schiaparelli creations, which have been seen on everyone from Bella Hadid to Rihanna, are already being snapped up by collectors.
Creative directors’ first and last collections are also likely to hold their value in the future, thanks to their historical significance for a house. Take Kamali’s Chloé debut or Seán McGirr’s first season for Alexander McQueen. “If it’s a departure [from what came before], if they did something that was really out of the blue for [the brand] or new, that’s collectible,” Clauss says, adding that reissues, such as Sabato De Sarno’s take on the Jackie and Bamboo bags at Gucci, are unlikely to ever be as desirable as the originals, for obvious reasons.
The news that Dries Van Noten is stepping down from his namesake brand has seen searches for the designer rise by one hundred per cent on Vestiaire Collective, fast-tracking his oeuvre into future vintage territory. Meanwhile, long-time Pierpaolo Piccioli collector Balch will undoubtedly see the dividends following his departure from Valentino (“He did so many collections that have stand-out pieces,” she enthuses).
Then there are the designers that will always be collectible. Demand for John Galliano shows no signs of letting up, with searches for the designer rising 38 per cent year-on-year according to Lyst. It means that his spine-tingling Maison Margiela Artisanal spring/summer 2024 collection – which saw models parading down the runway in cinched-in corsets and ultra-sheer tulle – is definitely one to add to the archives. “He’s been doing a great job at Margiela, but I think until [now] we didn’t fully see John,” Balch says of the collection’s significance, adding that the lace confection worn by Kendall Jenner to the Vanity Fair Oscar Party in March is one to look out for.
If you can afford it, that is. The soaring prices of modern-day couture means that “being able to find and collect couture pieces from this particular era 10 or 20 years from now is going to be that much harder”, Balch notes. Those pieces that actually are produced will likely be acquired by museum collections.
More likely to end up in real-life wardrobes? Phoebe Philo’s namesake brand, which launched in October 2023 after fevered anticipation. Clare Richardson, stylist and founder of luxury resale site Reluxe, managed to snag the much-talked-about Mum necklace, priced at £3,200, for her personal collection. “I always look for investment pieces that feel iconic of the time,” she explains of the purchase. Meanwhile, Erica Wright, founder of fashion sourcing app Sourcewhere, has her eye on the small Kit Cabas bag and the Club loafers – “a classic style with a Phoebe twist”.
All are safe bets considering the enduring popularity of Philo’s designs, with her Céline era being the most requested when it comes to past-season items on Sourcewhere (requests rose by 15 per cent after the designer unveiled her eponymous label). As for contemporary pieces, Wright predicts The Row’s Margaux, Everyday and ’90s bags, which have all been in high demand since they launched, will be future classics, along with Khaite’s studded leather Ziggy jacket and Elena bag. Meanwhile, limited-edition collaborations, such as Jil Sander & Birkenstock and Adidas & Wales Bonner, make up 10 per cent of Sourcewhere’s past-season requests.
Beyond the more established labels, rising brands such as Duran Lantink, who made his official Paris Fashion Week debut for spring/summer 2024, and Willy Chavarria, worn by Billie Eilish at the Golden Globes, have caught the attention of collectors. In fact, Lantink’s sculptural, upcycled pieces have already been acquired by the Metropolitan Museum of Art’s Costume Institute, Victoria & Albert Museum and Stedelijk Museum Amsterdam. “I think in future we’ll go, ‘That was a new silhouette [and] a precise, very clear point of view,’” Linton says of how the Dutch designer’s creations will be thought of in years to come.
Of course, tastes change. As Clauss points out, Yves Saint Laurent’s “scandal” collection from the 1970s and Alexander McQueen’s Givenchy era had their critics in their day, but are highly collectible now. Miu Miu’s satin ballet flats from the 2010s were relatively affordable on resale sites before they were reissued on the autumn/winter 2022 runway, while Jean Paul Gaultier’s tenure at Hermès has remained comparably under-the-radar on the current vintage market, despite the popularity of the designer’s namesake label.
The best advice? Invest in well-made pieces that you truly love, as they are likely to stand the test of time. “I [look for] pieces and collections that genuinely excite me – a rarity in itself,” Ihenacho says, adding: “I trust my instincts above all else.”
Hair: David Harborow. Make-up: Mathias Van Hooff. Nails: Chisato Yamamoto. Set design: Tobias Blackmore. Production: The Curated. Models: Raynara Negrine, Aylah Peterson, Ashley Radjarame. With thanks to: Alice’s; BaySixty6; Tytiah Blake, Unit C; J/M Gallery; RNG Classics; Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea; Well Hung Hammocks; Yesterday’s Babe Vintage.