Now that Hillary Clinton’s comfortable post-convention lead in the polls over __Donald Trump__has all but evaporated, the Democratic nominee’s campaign is struggling to calm the nerves of jittery Democrats and twitchy anti-Trump Republicans as they grapple with the harsh reality that the bombastic G.O.P. nominee could actually win in November. Seeking to flip that unnerving narrative, Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook on Monday blasted out a private memo to top volunteers, donors, and supporters detailing Clinton’s most promising paths to the White House.

In less than 50 days, either Clinton or Trump will need to secure at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidential election. In his nearly-2,000-word “Don’t Panic” memo, which was obtained by Politico, Mook argues that Clinton has a stronger base of electoral-college votes, which puts her at an advantage over Trump, whose routes to victory are much more limited. “Hillary is nearly certain to win 16 ‘blue’ states, including Washington, D.C., which will garner her 191 electoral votes,” Mook wrote, pointing out that if Clinton also wins Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin (the five states he says FiveThirtyEight has given Clinton a 70 percent or greater shot at winning), the former secretary of state will only need 10 more votes to send Trump packing. To capture those final 10 crucial votes, Clinton will have to win either Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio. “Put a different way, of these battleground states, Hillary can win just one (Florida, Ohio or North Carolina) and win the presidency, which means the six additional states would only add more electoral votes to her total,” Mook argued. Another option for the former First Lady, Politico reports, would be to win two of the following: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, or Colorado.

Trump, in turn, has a much more narrow path to victory. According to Mook’s analysis, Trump “must win six of these seven states, including Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio—none of which he can lose,” the campaign manager explained. Politico does add, however, that Mook’s memo counts Pennsylvania as an assumed win for Clinton, in contrast with the Trump campaign’s view that the state will be a battleground in November. (With 20 electoral votes, the Republican standard-bearer’s chances of becoming commander-in-chief take a precipitous drop if he can’t win the manufacturing-rich state.)

In addition to attempting to allay their fears with basic algebra, Mook called into question the accuracy of polls—which have been particularly susceptible to their own deficiencies throughout this election—and warned Clinton supporters to avoid giving them too much credence. “You’ve heard us say many times that public polls must be taken with a grain of salt, but here’s why we should just dump out the entire salt shaker,” the Clinton staffer wrote, before providing examples of major discrepancies between various polls within mere days’ time. But while Mook was quick to highlight the volatility of polling, he didn’t diminish the importance of winning toss-up states. “Battleground states carry that name for a reason: they’re going to be close, from now until election day.”