A guide to Hollywood’s biggest races

The Emmy Awards love continuity, as proven by the immense haul of nominations Succession just scored for its final season—but every year also brings its share of shocking snubs and welcome surprises. This year is no different, leaving out a few presumed locks (justice for Elizabeth Olsen!) while anointing several less predictable projects (nice work, Jury Duty!). Below, we take stock of the 2023 Emmy nominations’ least expected moves.

SURPRISE: Ted Lasso

Going into the Emmy nominations, it was unclear if Ted Lasso was going to perform as well as it did in its first two seasons, where it earned a slew of acting nominations and won for best comedy series two years in a row. But even if the third season wasn’t quite as well received, the Apple series scored a massive 21 nominations, the fourth-most of any show this year and the most for any comedy series. Jason Sudeikis, Juno Temple, Hannah Waddingham, and Brett Goldstein are all returning nominees, while Phil Dunster earned his first nom. Sam Richardson, Sarah Niles, Becky Ann Baker, and Harriet Walter also earned guest nominations. This incredible stack of nods indicates Ted Lasso will once again be a real contender to take that comedy series title for the third time. —Rebecca Ford

SNUB: Yellowstone and 1923

It feels like every year, we’re waiting for Taylor Sheridan’s popular Yellowstone universe to break through. Well, this wasn’t the year. The original series didn’t earn a single Emmy nomination, not even for lead actor Kevin Costner. There seemed to be a lot of hope that the spin-off, 1923, might garner more love, since it features strong performances from two giant movie stars, Harrison Ford and Helen Mirren. But, much like Yellowstone itself, the series didn’t land a single nomination either. —RF

SURPRISE: Jury Duty

Jury Duty was a bit of a stealth offering this year, sneaking up on viewers and quickly becoming a beloved and much-discussed new series. The show, which followed one unsuspecting regular man who thought he was serving on an ordinary jury but was actually on a hidden-camera show surrounded by actors, charmed its way into voters’ hearts and nabbed a comedy series nomination along with a nom for James Marsden, who hilariously plays a version of himself. —RF

SNUB: Poker Face

The Peacock series came into the Emmys with some strong momentum but was surprisingly left off the comedy series list. Its Emmy performance could still be viewed as a big win for Peacock, since the Rian Johnson-created mystery series picked up four nominations anyway—including acting noms for star Natasha Lyonne and Judith Light, and nods for production design and stunt coordination. —RF

SURPRISE: Vanderpump Rules

If you just started watching Bravo’s reality hit this year, you were certainly not alone. You probably already knew that—who among us didn’t crash-course on all things Scandoval?—which is why more of us should have seen a long-awaited Emmy breakthrough coming. It’s taken a full 10 years, but with Vanderpump in the reality zeitgeist like no other show this past season, the Television Academy finally woke up by bestowing it with its first-ever nominations, including outstanding unstructured reality program. —David Canfield

SNUB: Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

Once again putting up a double-digit nominations tally, Only Murders in the Building remains a favorite of the TV Academy. But with the acting branch falling hard for Shrinking and The Bear, and the lack of comedy competition only making room for five lead-acting spots, some tough choices had to be made—and that led to the surprising omission of Steve Martin. Clearly, with a more restricted ballot, voters felt compelled to choose between him and his co-lead Martin Short, and ultimately kept the latter in play. —DC

SURPRISE: Welcome to Chippendales

It can always be hard to tell which fall premieres will remain in voters’ memory. But clearly, the Television Academy’s acting branch couldn’t get Hulu’s juicy Welcome to Chippendales out of its mind. Murray Bartlett was considered a strong bet for a nod, given his sterling performance and overall profile on TV right now, but Kumail Nanjiani figuring into a competitive lead-actor race marks a real triumph, as do Annaleigh Ashford and Juliette Lewis, not only avoiding vote-splitting, but jointly making it into the supporting-actress field. It’s Lewis’s first nomination in 20 years, and Ashford’s first ever—given the expansive work they’ve done on TV of late, overdue recognition. —DC

SNUB: Movie stars in limited-series lead actress

The Emmys have a rather outdated reputation for favoring movie stars—but in more recent history, the Television Academy tends to turn their nose at A-listers shifting to the small screen. (Julia Roberts has been snubbed for her last two—well-received!—TV vehicles.) This year, that was especially evident in the lead-actress race for limited series. Rachel Weisz, Emily Blunt, and Elizabeth Olsen all earned great reviews for shows of varying popularity, yet all were snubbed—while, in their place, Emmy-nominated TV vets Lizzy Caplan and Kathryn Hahn both found a place. And that’s to say nothing of Dominique Fishback, the relative unknown of the group whose tour de force in Swarm could not be denied. She’s a veteran of David Simon series Show Me a Hero and The Deuce, so it feels appropriate that the Academy would recognize her here over glitzier names. —DC

SURPRISE: Daisy Jones & The Six

The drama about a 1970s band and its charismatic lead singers has a lot to sing about today. It was a popular series, but it really over-performed with nine nominations. The Amazon series earned acting nominations for lead Riley Keough and supporting actress Camila Morrone, along with a nomination for limited series. —RF

SNUB: The Crown

For any ordinary show, six nominations would not seem like a snub. But this Netflix heavyweight’s previous season earned 11 nominations and won seven—including drama series, writing and directing. This year, there are some notable snubs within the nominations, including no writing nom for Peter Morgan, and Imelda Staunton left off the lead actress group for her impressive work at the Queen. —RF

SURPRISE: Tiny Beautiful Things

Based on Cheryl Strayed’s advice column book, Tiny Beautiful Things was a well-done series that wasn’t exactly on the radar for Emmys. But its stellar acting performances by lead Kathryn Hahn and supporting actress Merritt Wever were rewarded with nominations, despite both of their categories being extremely competitive this year. —RF

SNUB: Harrison Ford

Movie star Ford had the possibility of landing two acting nominations his year, for his work in drama 1923 and comedy Shrinking. But it turns out the TV Academy didn’t eagerly jump to nominate a movie icon. The drama series was completed snubbed, and even though Shrinking earned two other acting nominations (for Jason Segel and Jessica Williams), Ford was left out in the cold. —RF

SURPRISE: Obi-Wan Kenobi

Likely a close call—the acting, writing, and directing branches ignored the show—but Disney still pulled off a bit of a shocker with this nod for best limited series. The sheer popularity of the Star Wars built-in audience likely helped as Obi-Wan Kenobi competed opposite far more niche limited series, especially seeing as, unlike Andor, it wasn’t a huge hit with critics. Among others, the show beat out Showtime’s glossy George & Tammy and Apple’s Black Bird, both of which were presumed to have much cleaner paths to nods here. —DC

SNUB: The Traitors

Last year, the reality-competition lineup got a jolt of energy when Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls not only scored a nomination, but ultimately triumphed in a category known for honoring decade-old shows. The hope this year was that Peacock’s phenomenon The Traitors could keep the trend up. Instead, voters leaned on the (very) old—more on that shortly—sticking to familiar habits. —DC

SURPRISE: Survivor

Let’s make the shock of this very clear: Survivor has not been nominated in the best competition program category since 2006. That is a staggering comeback for a competition that has never gone off the air, save a COVID-year break, and that has retained everything from its basic format to its host through 40-plus seasons. It’s a testament to the CBS show’s unique combination of innovation and tradition, and its ability to maintain a large, loyal fan base over decades—while finding some new viewers along the way. —DC

SNUB: HBO/Max in outstanding limited series

It’s been five years since HBO/Max has been without a nominee for best limited series—a category they’ve effectively ruled between Big Little Lies, Watchmen, and last year’s White Lotus—but the streak ran out this year. The network simply didn’t have the quality of content this year, with its big spring pushes, Love & Death and White House Plumbers, underwhelming critics and audiences. At least the former true-crime drama did score an acting nod for its scene-stealing male lead, Jesse Plemons. —DC

SURPRISE: The White Lotus outdoes itself

Last year, The White Lotus got eight of its actors nominated. That seemed like a lot! And also near impossible to top this time around, given that the glow around season one was gone and the new voting system would restrict the amount of choices fans of the show could make. Yet somehow, Mike White’s satirical drama outdid itself. Reigning champ Jennifer Coolidge was, of course, a lock, and the likes of newbies Aubrey Plaza, Michael Imperioli, F. Murray Abraham, and Meghann Fahy all making the list isn’t a huge shock. That they were joined by Italian standouts Sabrina Impacciatore and Simona Tabasco, as well as the rivaling Will Sharpe and Theo James? Clearly, the actors’ branch cannot get enough of this ensemble setup—and clearly, if anything were to really upset Succession, it’s probably this HBO sibling. —DC

SNUB: Abbott Elementary

Was the popular ABC comedy really snubbed? With eight nominations, it earned more than it did for its first season. That includes nods for last year’s supporting actress winner, Sheryl Lee Ralph, and acting noms for Quinta Brunson, Janelle James, and Tyler James Williams. There had been hope that the show’s increased momentum might land Lisa Ann Walter her first nom too, but that didn’t happen. But the most glaring omission comes in the writing for a comedy category, where Brunson actually won last year. This hiccup might mean Abbott’s chances of winning the comedy series category will be more of an uphill battle than we thought. —RF

SURPRISE: TV Movies make a comeback

The last time a TV movie was nominated in the writing category (which encompasses both limited series and standalone films) was 2015, when Hello Ladies: The Movie (remember that? no?) and Dee Rees’s Bessie made their way through. Predictors such as myself had all but given up on the format making any sort of showing with the branch again, but what a difference some structural shifts in the industry can make. Somehow, fully half of the writing nominees are TV movies, which can partly be attributed to the fact that these films weren’t competing with themselves (meaning, many limited series submitted multiple scripts and canceled themselves out). They include Fire Island, a glorious bit of recognition for Joel Kim Booster; Prey, the Hulu horror film that probably would’ve done well in theaters but that also got into directing; and Weird, the surrealist “Weird Al” Yankovic biopic which the subject cowrote with director Eric Appel. These are fun, surprising nominees, and while it took a bit of weird ballot math for them to get there, let’s hope this sets a new precedent. —DC