Bitcoin price prediction for 2024
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BLUEPRINT
Updated 11:31 a.m. UTC June 27, 2024
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Key points
- Bitcoin made new all-time highs in 2024.
- The SEC approved the first spot bitcoin ETFs in January.
- Interest rate cuts may trigger the next crypto rally.
After a solid start to 2024, bitcoin has hit a summer slump.
The world’s most valuable crypto climbed to a new all-time high of $73,750 on March 14. Unfortunately, optimism surrounding the January 2024 launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds has seemingly faded.
Bitcoin bulls still hope the new ETFs will open the door for massive institutional investment.
Bitcoin bears see no obvious catalyst to send BTC prices higher. Sticky inflation has delayed the Federal Reserve’s pivot to interest rate cuts. Elevated interest rates may continue to weigh on crypto prices in the near future.
Bitcoin price prediction
Bitcoin’s unique construction and extreme volatility make price predictions very difficult. Even industry experts and financial professionals struggle with accurate price targets.
Cathie Wood’s bitcoin predictions
Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, is one of the boldest bitcoin bulls on Wall Street. In March 2024, Wood predicted bitcoin prices could reach $3.8 million by 2030. She said institutional investors will eventually allocate more than 5% of their portfolios to bitcoin.
Bitcoin investors should take Wood’s predictions with a grain of salt. The controversial Wood and her funds have a mixed track record. Ark’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) has generated a -9% return over the past five years. That performance has severely lagged the total return of the S&P 500.
Jack Dorsey’s bitcoin predictions
Jack Dorsey is the co-founder and former CEO of Twitter as well as the principal executive officer and chairperson of Block. He is also among the most high-profile bitcoin bulls in the tech world.
In a May interview with Pirate Wires, Dorsey was asked what the price of bitcoin will be in 2030.
He responded: “I don’t know. Over at least a million. I do think it hits that number and goes beyond. But I think the price is only interesting. The most amazing thing about bitcoin, apart from the founding story, is anyone who works on it, or gets paid in it, or buys it for themselves — everyone who puts any effort in to make it better — is making the entire ecosystem better, which makes the price go up.”
Dorsey went on to say the most critical part of bitcoin’s story is its potential to decentralize the financial system.
Kraken
Bitcoin price prediction 2025
If the bitcoin rally resumes, it could return to new all-time highs by 2025. The recent bitcoin halving reduced the rate of BTC production. If institutional investment in bitcoin starts gaining momentum, bitcoin prices could soar in the next 12 months.
Lou Kerner, co-founder of CryptoOracle Collective, said the bitcoin rally will continue.
“Based on the (historical) highs and lows of fast bitcoin cycles, I’d expect bitcoin to top $80,000 this year and $200,000 in 2025,” Kerner said.
Will bitcoin reach $100,000?
Bitcoin would need to rally a lot more to reach $100,000. That may seem like an extreme move to the typical stock investor. But bitcoin has a long track record of extreme volatility. In 2023 alone, bitcoin prices surged to nearly 156%. If the crypto maintains its historical volatility, $100,000 may be closer than it seems.
Will bitcoin reach $150,000?
Bitcoin’s path to $150,000 hinges purely on demand. With a fixed supply, demand from users and investors is its primary driver.
Michael Collins, chartered financial analyst and founder and CEO of WinCap Financial, said $150,000 bitcoin prices are easily within the realm of possibility. But BTC’s extreme volatility means another deep sell-off is also possible.
“Based on the current market trend, it is possible that bitcoin may reach up to $100,000 by the end of 2024 and could potentially surpass $200,000 by the end of 2025,” Collins said.
Unfortunately, he said it’s unlikely bitcoin’s momentum in 2023 and 2024 will continue indefinitely.
A long-term bitcoin price chart seems to indicate that crypto is trending toward $150,000. But past performance is no guarantee of future gains.
Will bitcoin reach $1 million?
It’s easy to dismiss bitcoin bulls calling for prices of $1 million as merely price pumpers or cheerleaders. But a BTC price of $1 million may not be too far-fetched.
Anthony Rousseau, head of brokerage solutions at TradeStation, said bitcoin has a plausible path to $1 million. But investors must be patient. The path to $1 million could be bumpy and long.
“With global debt challenges, the trend is to expand the base money, which is dire for many. But (it) could be beneficial for those holding hard assets like bitcoin,” Rousseau said. “It’s plausible that bitcoin will reach gold’s market capitalization — which is currently around $15 trillion — potentially driving bitcoin to $1 million by the next decade,” he added.
$1 million BTC bull case
Eliézer Ndinga, vice president of digital assets at 21Shares, said gold is the key to the $1 million BTC bull case. “In theory, if bitcoin reaches the market value of gold, the price per bitcoin will be more than $797,000,” Ndinga said.
The methodology suggests bitcoin completely replaces gold as a global store of value. That replacement will only happen after a period of time and may only happen partially. BTC and gold may continue to share the role of preferred alternatives to fiat currency. Regardless, there’s a plausible path for BTC prices to reach $1 million eventually.
Collins said there’s also a distinct possibility that bitcoin prices will never hit $1 million.
One of the biggest reasons is that bitcoin has historically been a volatile asset, proving difficult for investors to have confidence in its long-term value and potential as an investment vehicle. Also, global government bans, regulations, taxation and oversight of cryptocurrency could limit bitcoin’s ultimate adoption.
Bitcoin price history
Bitcoin price: 2010 – 2017
Bitcoin began trading on online exchanges in 2010. In April 2011, the original crypto crossed over a dollar in value for the first time.
As its popularity and visibility rose, bitcoin’s volatility and unique blockchain-based design gained the attention of investors. Bitcoin prices reached $1,000 for the first time in 2013. But crypto garnered significant mainstream awareness when its prices surged to nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
One of the biggest driving forces behind the 2017 crypto bubble was CME Group’s decision to launch crypto futures contracts in late 2017. It was the first of its kind, a mainstream financial bitcoin-related financial product.
Bitcoin price: 2018 – 2022
After the crypto market frenzy died down in 2018, bitcoin prices plummeted to less than $4,000.
Stock and crypto trading became trendy again during the COVID-19 pandemic in late 2020. From there, bitcoin prices soared to new all-time highs. Following a string of bitcoin futures ETF launches in late 2020, bitcoin hit $69,000 in November 2021.
Rising interest rates triggered a sell-off in bitcoin and other risk assets in 2022. As a result, bitcoin prices dropped about 64% that year. The sell-off was further compounded by stablecoin terraUSD’s collapse in May 2022. Multiple crypto firm bankruptcies followed during the subsequent crypto winter.
Bitcoin price: 2023 – 2024
Bitcoin ultimately hit its 2022 bottom at under $16,000. But the original cryptocurrency bounced back to above $20,000 by January 2023.
Bitcoin prices remained remarkably resilient even as crypto-focused banks Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank collapsed during a U.S. regional banking crisis in early 2023.
Fears over crypto market contagion died following the banking crisis. Investors shifted their focus from 2022’s crypto winter to the possibility that the SEC could soon approve the first spot bitcoin ETF.
Bitcoin investor sentiment has cooled off, and pricing momentum stalled in the summer of 2024. But longtime crypto investors know gains, losses and sentiment can turn on a dime. The last time bitcoin completed a calendar year with a gain or loss of less than 60% was in 2015.
Bitcoin price stats
| 1-DAY RETURN | 5-DAY RETURN | YEAR-TO-DATE RETURN | 1-YEAR RETURN |
|---|---|---|---|
-3.88%
| -2.13%
| 32.99%
| 94.05%
|
*The return comparisons are as of 8 a.m. ET.
| |||
Is now the time to buy, sell or hold bitcoin?
The launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 significantly improved bitcoin’s fundamental outlook. But the momentum has faded, and the rally has stalled. There is also no clear bullish catalyst to drive prices higher in the near term.
In addition, a $9 billion payout to creditors of the failed crypto exchange Mt. Gox could create near-term BTC selling pressure. The approval of the first spot ethereum ETFs may renew interest in spot bitcoin ETFs. If investors reallocate to diversify into ethereum, it could also pressure bitcoin prices.
Is bitcoin overpriced or underpriced?
It’s extremely difficult to use traditional valuation models to assign a fair value to bitcoin. The cryptocurrency doesn’t represent an ownership stake in a company or other asset. It doesn’t generate cash flow, revenue or income. It doesn’t pay interest or dividends.
Because of its fixed supply, its price is dictated primarily by demand from investors and users. Its current and future fair value price will depend on its popularity as a store of value and alternative currency.
Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
It’s nearly impossible for financial professionals and analysts to predict short-term bitcoin price movements. The stock-to-flow model, which isn’t completely reliable, suggests bitcoin prices could rise above $100,000 by early 2025.
The range of bitcoin price targets is extremely wide because there is no clear way to value bitcoin accurately from a fundamental perspective.
Several high-profile bitcoin skeptics still believe the cryptocurrency is inherently worthless. These “bitcoin doubters” include economist and professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University Steve Hanke, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, and Euro Pacific Asset Management chief economist Peter Schiff.
“The reason you claim bitcoin is property is that (it’s) useless as a currency. It’s neither a viable medium of exchange or (a) unit of account. Since it has no intrinsic value, it can’t be a store of value. If it’s property, it’s the least valuable property one can own. It’s worthless.”
— Peter Schiff
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