New satellite imagery appears to show the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian strategic missile test range installation, the latest in a string of attacks against Moscow’s strategic assets.
The before-and-after low-resolution images show what appear to be scorch marks in several areas of the Kapustin Yar facility in Astrakhan Oblast more than 400 miles from the front lines. The exact extent of the damage, however, cannot be determined from these images.
On Wednesday, video emerged on social media showing what is claimed to be that attack underway.
“The Russians released a video from the field capturing UAV strikes hitting the assembly and testing building of the military test range in the Akhtubinsk district,” the Ukrainian Militinaryi news outlet reported. The video shows black smoke pouring out of the building, followed by the sound of an explosion, with a bright flash leading to a cloud of black and brown smoke.
The independent Russian Astra news outlet reported that there were several drone strikes on the facility and elsewhere in the region.
“Nine UAVs struck the territory of military unit 15644 near Znamensk, where the Kapustin Yar military training ground is located. In April of this year, an intercontinental ballistic missile was tested there,” Astra reported on its Telegram channel. “Two more drones hit the territory of military unit 15650 in Akhtubinsk. There is no information about damage to military equipment, nor about casualties.”
In addition, “a few hours later, debris from an air defense missile fell on the territory of the Ministry of Internal Affairs department in the Akhtubinsky district. According to sources, 30 police officers and two detainees had to be evacuated. There were no casualties.”
Astra published two videos showing black-painted UJ-26 Beaver drones buzzing toward the facility.
One of those drones was forced down in the Volgograd region by electronic warfare measures, the Russian Rezervsvo Telegram channel claimed. Volgograd is adjacent to the oblast containing Kapustin Yar and any drones launched from Ukraine would likely have to fly over that region to reach the missile test range.
The head of the district acknowledged an attack but said it caused no damage.
On the morning of July 9 “in the Akhtubinsky district, Ukronazis carried out an attack on infrastructure facilities using UAVs,” Vladimir Mikhed said on his Telegram channel. “Thanks to the vigilance of the population of the area, who promptly reported about flying objects, as well as the coordinated actions of reconnaissance units and weapons of law enforcement agencies, the enemy attack using more than 20 UAVs was successfully repelled. There are no casualties, injuries or destruction in the area.”
A satellite data captured by NASA’s Fire Information for Resources Management System (FIRMS) shows fires burning roughly 6 miles to the northeast of the facility, but that could also be the result of testing at the site or brush fires. Although, the timing of these fires and the fire damage at the facility and the done attacks would be a big coincidence.
Imagery from Planet Labs shows additional scorch marks at a facility about nine miles northeast of the building in the video.
The 4th Missile Test Range at Kapustin Yar first began testing rockets shortly after WWII when it fired German A-4 rockets. Since then, it has been used to test intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), cruise missiles, and anti-satellite weapons according to RussianSpaceWeb.com. It is unclear if conventional delivery systems and weaponry are still being tested there.
In April, the Russians launched what is believed to be the latest version of the Topol ICBM, known as the Topol-ME, according to Forces.net.
The attack on Kapustin Yar is the latest in a string of Ukrainian efforts to target Russia’s strategic infrastructure.
Last month, Ukraine used U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles to strike the NIP-16 Deep Space Communications site in Vitino, Crimea.
The site is now officially known as the 40th Separate Command and Measurement Complex and is part of the Titov Main Test and Space Systems Control Center of the Russian Aerospace Forces, according to the Ukrainian Militanaryi news outlet. It was originally built during the Cold War-era to track Russian space launches.
In April, we reported that Ukraine attacked a Russian strategic early warning radar site in the southwestern end of the country. It was substantially damaged in a drone attack. It appeared to be a first-of-its-kind attack on a site linked to Russia’s general strategic defense.
An attack on Kapustin Yar could indicate that Ukraine continues to have an interest in striking at Russia’s strategic infrastructure.
It also would make sense for Ukraine as a target if weaponry being used or intended to be used in Russia’s campaign of long-range strikes against Ukraine were undergoing development there. Ukraine has targeted such centers of weapons development and the manufacturing of war-related materiel before.
Before diving into more developments from the conflict in Ukraine, The War Zone readers can review our previous coverage here.
The Latest
On the battlefield, Russia is continuing offensive operations across the frontlines and making some small territorial gains in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces recently advanced into central Vovchansk by crossing the Vovcha River amid continued fighting north and northeast of Kharkiv City, according to the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War.
- Luhansk Oblast: Russian forces recently marginally advanced northwest of Kreminna amid continued Russian ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces made several small advances recently. Geolocated footage published on July 10 shows that Russian forces advanced southwards towards the northern outskirts of Pivdenne, southeast of Toretsk. They also advanced in some areas west of Avdiivka as well as west and southwest of Donetsk City. Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Siversk near Bilohorivka; east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske; southeast of Siversk near Vyimka and Spirne; and south of Siversk near Rozdolivka as well as in the Chasiv Yar direction but did not make any confirmed advances.
- Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border: Russian forces continued limited ground attacks area near Urozhaine and Makarivka (both south of Velyka Novosilka) on July 10 but did not advance.
- Zaporizhzhia Oblast: There were no changes to the frontline in western Zaporizhia Oblast despite ongoing positional battles.
- Kherson Oblast: Positional engagements continued in the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River near Krynky and on the river delta islands.
“Ukraine faces difficult months of fighting ahead, but the situation at the front is better than it was this spring,” Michael Kofman, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment said after a recent visit to Ukraine. “More worrisome is the state of Ukraine’s air defense, and the damage from Russian strikes to the power grid.”
“Ukraine’s manpower, fortifications, and ammunition situation is steadily improving,” he said. “Russian forces are advancing in Donetsk, and likely to make further gains, but they have not been able to exploit the Kharkiv offensive into a major breakthrough.”
The Kharkiv front “has stabilized, with the overall correlation of forces not favorable to Moscow there.” Meanwhile, Russia is “focused on the following directions: Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Ocheretyne-Pokrovsk, and to a lesser extent Kupyansk.”
While Ukraine is increasing its ability to generate forces, “rectifying manpower deficits will take time,” wrote Kofman. “Russian forces are likely to keep advancing over the coming months, especially in Donetsk. The next 2 months will be especially difficult.”
A bigger problem, however, is the lack of air defenses, both short-range air defense systems (SHORADS) to cover the front lines and long-range systems “to defend cities, critical infrastructure and rear areas.”
“Ukraine is very low on ammunition for legacy Soviet systems, whereas Russian drone and missile production rates have increased significantly,” Kofman noted. “A deficit of air defense has led to pervasive Russian UAS reconnaissance behind the front line and increased success rates in strikes.”
Moving forward, the main challenge for Ukraine “is Russia’s strike campaign,” Kofman explained. “While Shahed-type drones have become increasingly easy to intercept, Russian air strikes have become more sophisticated, and Russian missile production rates have notably increased compared with 2022.”
Ukraine requires 16 gigawatts of power this winter,” Kofman postulated. “Optimistically it will be able to produce 12GW. Getting there will require a combination of increased imports, and numerous gas units in the MW range. More details can be found in articles such as this one here: https://forum-energii.eu/en/ukraine-destroyed-system.”
The U.S. will provide Ukraine with an additional Patriot battery from its existing stocks, the Pentagon announced Thursday afternoon. It is part of a Presidential Drawdown Authority package valued at up to $225 million. This will be the second U.S. Patriot system in Ukraine when it arrives.
The U.S. providing Ukraine with an existing Patriot battery is a big deal considering how limited they are in number and how many have already been committed to the Middle East and elsewhere.
Concerns about what the limited number of Patriot capacity means for the prospect of adequately defending U.S. forces deployed overseas, as well as the U.S. homeland, all while being able to respond to a major contingency, is something senior U.S. military leaders, as well as The War Zone, have been drawing attention to for some time. You can read about that in our deep dive here.
The 61st PDA, announced after U.S. President Joe Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the NATO Summit in Washington D.C. also includes:
• Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
• Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
• Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) equipment and missiles;
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• Small arms ammunition;
• Demolitions munitions; and
• Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.
The Prime Minister of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, suggested that her country provide all its air defense systems to Ukraine.
“We decided many months ago to give all our artillery to Ukraine. Why? Because it will be applied better in Ukraine than in Denmark. And now we must do the same with air defense,” Frederiksen said during the NATO summit in Washington, according to the Voice of America‘s Telegram channel.
Zelensky and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis signed an Agreement on Security Cooperation between Ukraine and Romania.
“Romania will transfer a Patriot system to Ukraine, continue to support our country …and facilitate the swift transit of all necessary equipment through its territory to Ukraine,” according to Zelensky’s office.
“A key feature of this agreement is specific points of cooperation to strengthen security in the Black Sea region. Romania will assist Ukraine in demining the Black Sea and provide support through EU and NATO tools.”
Bucharest, along with its partners, “will also support the F-16 training center for preparing Ukrainian pilots, thus contributing to the Air Force Capability Coalition,” according to Zelensky’s office. “Romania will support our country’s defense industry.”
Canada announced that it will help expand the training of Ukrainian pilots as they receive their first F-16s. In addition, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada plans to commit an additional $366 million in military assistance to Ukraine this year, the Canadian CBC news outlet reported.
“The additional money, on top of the projected $4 billion in arms and munitions Canada has already pledged and donated, came following a bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Washington summit,” according to the publication
Ukraine continues to push U.S. officials to allow the use of donated weapons on airfields in Russia.
“We are working on another decision that does not directly depend on NATO but depends on the United States,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on TV, according to the Odessa Journal. “This will be discussed during contacts with American officials and some of our closest partners.”
Kuleba pushed for permission to strike Russian airfields used to launch continuous attacks against Ukrainian cities like the massive July 8 bombardment that killed more than 40 people.
“There, it is necessary to ruthlessly destroy all military targets that are involved in the bombings and missile strikes on Ukraine,” the minister emphasized.
In May, the Biden administration allowed the use of long-range weapons like M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS against targets in Russia adjacent to Kharkiv Oblast.
The prohibition against using Army Tactical Missile System] ATACMS remains. Ukrainian officials would like to be allowed to use both systems against airbases deep inside Russia.
Ukraine turned down an offer for Swedish JAS-39 Gripen fighters because it would be “too much” to integrate them as well as the F-16 Vipers soon to arrive, the Nordic nation’s foreign minister said in a recent interview.
“We must understand that Ukraine was given the opportunity to receive F-16 fighters, of which, of course, there are more in the NATO family,” Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom told Voice of America on Wednesday. “After all, more countries have F-16s than Gripen fighters. This has nothing to do with the Swedish government’s decision. Such a decision was made due to the fact that Ukraine came to the conclusion that having two fighter systems at the same time – both F-16 and Gripen – is too much.”
“After all,” he added, “we are talking about systems. It’s not just about getting planes and training pilots. These are complex systems, and it would be too difficult to implement two of them at the same time.”
Still, Sweden maintains an interest in providing Ukraine with Gripens “if and when the F-16 program is completed. Again, this is a matter for Ukraine, not the Swedish government,” Billstrom explained.
“Since we could not continue with the Gripens due to the arrival of the F-16s, we decided to give Ukraine other capabilities that Sweden has, and we gave Ukraine ASC 890 surveillance systems,” Billstrom continued. “This will mean that we are giving something that Ukraine can use in coordination with the F-16 fighter jets. This will give Ukraine the opportunity to better conduct air battles, monitor and control air battles.”
“I cannot comment on these political decisions,” Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Col. Yuri Ignat told The War Zone Thursday morning. “Maybe it’s not the case in Ukraine.”
Billstrom’s comments came on the same day that U.S., Danish and Dutch officials announced that the transfer of Vipers to Ukraine is now underway.
Northrop Grumman has signed an agreement to manufacture weapons inside Ukraine, Politico is reporting. That makes it the first U.S. company to take the step, a company executive told the news outlet.
“We will be producing [weapons] in Ukraine by Ukrainians with the cooperation of a U.S. company,” Stephen O’Bryan, corporate vice president and global business development officer at Northrop Grumman, said Thursday at the NATO Public Forum.
“O’Bryan did not disclose what weapons the company intends to produce inside Ukraine,” Politico explained. “Northrop Grumman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.”
The company signed the agreement at the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington on Wednesday against the backdrop of the NATO Summit.
The Russian government planned to assassinate the chief executive of a major German arms manufacturer that has been producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine, U.S. intelligence discovered, CNN is reporting, citing five US and Western officials familiar with the episode.
“The plot was one of a series of Russian plans to assassinate defense industry executives across Europe who were supporting Ukraine’s war effort,” according to CNN, citing those sources. “The plan to kill Armin Papperger, a white-haired goliath who has led the German manufacturing charge in support of Kyiv, was the most mature.”
After learning of the plot, U.S. officials informed Germany, whose security services were then able to protect Papperger, CNN stated.
“A high-level German government official confirmed that Berlin was warned about the plot by the US.”
The European Union on Thursday voiced its support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s peace plan as the only one it considers valid.
“This is the position of the European Union,” High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said during the NATO Summit in Washington D.C. “The whole European Union is supporting the position. And for the European Union there is no plan other than Zelensky’s plan. It is the only peace plan for Europeans.”
You can read more about that plan, and one put forth by Russian President Vladimir Putin in our story here.
Upset by the deadly missile attack on the Okhmatydy Children’s Hospital in Kyiv, a Russian pilot contacted the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) with details about the bomber unit responsible for that strike, according to Ukrainian Pravda. The War Zone cannot independently verify this claim.
The pilot shared “classified data which helped Ukraine identify more than 30 commanders of a Russian heavy bomber unit,” the publication wrote.
That unit, the 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division at Engels Air Base, is responsible for many of the Kh-101 missile attacks on Ukrainian cities.
“The Russian pilot said he was shocked by the strike on the children’s hospital and has decided to share documents pertaining to his military unit’s activities, as well as private photos of commanders of the 22nd Heavy Bomber Division, with Ukraine,” Ukrainian Pravda reported. “The documents include senior officers’ personnel files and personal data concerning Russian servicemen and their families, among others.”
The Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles Russia used to attack the children’s hospital were packed with Western-designed components, according to Financial Times. The ability to evade sanctions is helping Russia produce more than eight times as many of the advanced cruise missiles than before Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-on invasion. The issue of Russian weapons packed with U.S. components is a topic The War Zone has previously covered.
This missile “is still dependent on parts from Western countries, particularly the U.S.,” Olena Bilousova, a research lead on sanctions at the KSE Institute in Kyiv, told the publication. “Western technology is allowing them to build these smarter missiles, which allow their terror attacks to get past our struggling air defenses.”
The Kremlin’s defense sector has turned to microprocessors and other advanced technology not intended for military use as sanctions have cut it off from some advanced components, Financial Times reported.
“The transition is visible in Ukrainian analysis of a Kh-101 fired in January, which revealed 16 pieces of Western-made electronics inside the missile,” the publication explained. “Two of the components were branded as made by Switzerland-headquartered STMicroelectronics, with the remainder made by US chipmakers including Texas Instruments, Analog Devices and Intel. All of the goods are principally intended for civilian use — with some quite old.”
A Financial Times analysis of Russian filings “shows how Russian companies in 2023 were able to obtain parts identical to those used in the January Kh-101 by simply buying them on the open market and importing them via China. While the Russian documents state that the parts were made by Western manufacturers, all were listed as having been made in China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan or Thailand. Analysis of a single wreckage is likely to understate the extent of Russia’s foreign reliance.”
An analysis from the Office of the President of Ukraine provided to the FT claimed that “a complete Kh-101 can contain more than 50 different foreign-produced parts.”
An attempt to express condemnation over the deadly July 8 Russian missile strike that hit Kyiv’s largest children’s hospital was blocked in the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) by Russia, which currently chairs that body.
“The horrific spectacle of relentless death and destruction caused by Russia’s blatant aggression reached a new dark chapter yesterday. Targeting small, innocent and sick children with hypersonic missiles is utterly shocking,” the text in part read.
You can read the full speech here.
During the emergency meeting, “multiple members of the Security Council condemned Russia’s missile attack in stark terms while the Russian delegation denied responsibility,” the Kyiv Post reported.
“If this was a Russian strike, there would have been nothing left of the building and all the children would have been killed and not wounded,” Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s envoy to the U.N., said during the meeting.
A day after killing at least 40 and wounding nearly 200 more in missile strikes across Ukraine, Russia held a banquet to celebrate its presidency of the UNSC. The menu seemed to send a dark message.
It included “Chicken Kiev” and American wine.
Before Russia’s massive missile barrage struck Ukrainian cities, a group of fishermen on the Caspian Sea captured two Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles roaring at a low altitude over the water
A Russian Navy ship was recently seen in the Georgian Black Sea port of Ochamchire, a sign that it might be seeking a safer haven for the Black Sea Fleet, Naval News reported.
“In a new development, a Russian Navy ship normally based in Novorossiysk, has docked in the port of Ochamchire in Georgia,” the publication reported. “The port is in the Abkhazia region which is controlled by Russia. The local Russian-backed administration has claimed that the Russian Navy would establish a permanent base at the port.”
The move is controversial, Naval News noted, “since the port is in Georgia, which implies bringing Georgia into the Russo-Ukraine War. Russia could attempt to use the port as a refuge from attacks. And they could even a safe base to launch combat missions from. Ukraine’s options will be complicated because it is located on Georgian territory, despite being controlled by breakaway Abkhazia.”
Establishing Ochamchire as a port could make it harder for Ukraine’s Uncrewed Surface Vessels (USV) to reach. It is some 600 miles from Ukrainian-held territory, the easternmost part of the Black Sea. Most Ukrainian USV attacks have been in and around Crimea, some 370 miles northwest of Ochamchire.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is accusing Ukraine’s spy boss of engineering a plot to blow up the Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia’s only aircraft carrier.
The scheme began in March, according to the FSB, when a 24-year-old Russian officer serving aboard the aircraft carrier was contacted via the WhatsApp and Telegram messaging services by an employee of the Ukrainian special services named “Oleg.”
“During telephone conversations, using psychological influence techniques – from promises to ensure travel abroad using forged documents and payment of large rewards to threats of criminal prosecution for financing the armed forces of Ukraine on fabricated grounds – he persuaded the serviceman to commit a terrorist attack on a warship,” the FSB claimed without proof.
The officer, however, reported the plot to authorities, who played along to “document the illegal activities of ‘Oleg’ and identify possible agents and accomplices of the Kyiv regime.”
In order to assemble an incendiary device to be used on the aircraft carrier, Ukrainian special services sent the officer components through an unnamed transport and logistics company, the FSB stated.
The officer was “assured that immediately after receiving a video recording confirming the arson on the cruiser, he would be evacuated to Finland, and the cache prepared in the border area already contained documents and funds prepared for him.”
“Oleg” said that the entire operation “was personally supervised by” Lt. Gen. Kyruylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR), the FSB said.
The officer sent “Oleg” a video of a fire suppression training exercise aboard the ship as proof he carried out his mission, then deleted the WhatsApp and Telegram accounts, the FSB explained.
The FSB’s investigative department has opened up a criminal case against “Oleg” and “other unidentified persons,” the agency, which used to be the KGB, stated.
The accused face life in prison on charges of “Inducement, recruitment or other involvement of a person in the commission of a crime of a terrorist nature.”
Ukrainian Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of GUR, denied involvement and did not know if this was a real plot or something made up by the FSB.
“We don’t know what it is, but I can tell you this is not our operation,” he told The War Zone.
The aircraft carrier has long been plagued by problems and it is unclear when it will become operational.
The Russian The_Wrong_Side (TWS) Telegram channel published a video it claims shows an Iskander ballistic missile cluster munitions attack that destroyed two M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS vehicles.
“The intelligence officers thwarted the plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to launch an attack with [U.S.-produced Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles] on the Crimean Peninsula,” TWS claimed. “Thus, the movement of two HIMARS in the vicinity of the settlement was detected in the Novopetrovka, Kherson region.”
The Iskander “immediately struck the previously prepared positions of the rocket systems.”
In addition to destroying two HIMARS, TWS claims support vehicles were also destroyed and at least 20 Ukrainian troops killed.
The video shows the tell-tale scattering of exploding submunitions and then what could be a struck vehicle engulfed in a tall spire of flames. While we don’t know exactly what happened, those flames could indicate ammunition cooking off.
The War Zone cannot independently verify the claims that the HIMARS were destroyed. However, of the more than 40 HIMARS provided by the U.S. to Ukraine, only one has been verified as destroyed – in an attack that took place in March – according to the Oryx open-source tracking group. That figure could be higher because Oryx only tabulates losses for which it has visual confirmation.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) released a compilation video of FPV drone strikes on Russian equipment, including a Tor air defense system TLAR, a Buk transloader and many other targets.
Images of a turtled-up Russian MT-LB emerged on social media. The vehicle has an armored plate welded onto the front topped off with chicken wire. The rest of the vehicle is encased in camouflage-net-covered caging, giving it a Mad Max vibe.
A pair of U.S.-supplied Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) precision-guided bombs is seen on a munitions dolly, waiting to be prepped and loaded onto the Ukrainian Air Force’s Soviet-era MiG-29 Fulcrums and Su-27 Flankers.
JDAM-ERs have been in use in Ukraine since at least March 2023. The Fulcrums and Flankers are being used to employ these weapons with the help of specialized pylons and tablet-based control systems in their cockpits.
These Russian small boats did not fare well against a Ukrainian drone attack.
After nearly two years of constant fighting, the Donetsk Oblast coal mining city of Bakhmut has been absolutely devastated, as you can see in this video taken by Russian troops.
And finally, the wounds of war don’t necessarily mean the battle is over.
This Ukrainian soldier, who lost parts of both arms during this conflict, is training to fly FPV drones and return to the fight.
That’s it for now.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com