The election of a former heart surgeon as Iran’s new president is seen as comically fitting among critics of the hardline regime in Tehran. They joke that he needs to perform urgent and extensive surgery on the country’s entire political system.
Masoud Pezeshkian, 69, a reformist candidate, beat a hardliner in Friday’s run-off presidential vote after pledging to re-engage with the West in an effort to win sanctions relief. The result appeared to signal deep dissatisfaction with Iran’s growing isolation and draconian management.
Experts cautioned, however, against expecting dramatic reforms in the theocratic state ruled by the 85-year-old “supreme leader”, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He, rather than elected politicians, is the ultimate decision-maker in domestic and foreign affairs.
“This is not like some free and fair democracy, the president does not have the power. Pezeshkian won’t be able to do a huge amount,” said Ali Ansari, director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews. He certainly won’t be allowed to “operate”, he added, because “the sort of surgery Iran needs could kill the patient”.
Even so, he believes the victory of the reformist former health minister over Saeed Jalili, a figure considered close to the supreme leader who claimed Iran could thrive by cutting itself off from the West, was a sign of society shifting away from hardliners.
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“It was a better result than it could have been; what voters did was signal their disenchantment and ensure that the real lunatic didn’t get anywhere near the presidency,” said Ansari. “Rather than drive the car off the cliff at 90mph they’ve put the brakes on.”
Even though he might be able to influence the tone of Iranian policy, Pezeshkian has little room for manoeuvre when it comes to imposing his choices.
Ministerial picks and legislation have to be approved by parliament which, along with other levers of state, has been dominated by hardliners ever since Ebrahim Raisi, who oversaw the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988, won the presidency in 2021. It was his death with seven others in a helicopter crash in May that triggered the election.
All four candidates — three of whom were Islamic hardliners — had been vigorously vetted by the regime before being allowed to take part. A record low turnout in the first round of voting, which winnowed the contenders down to two, was a clear signal of public disillusionment with the system.
There is no shortage of reasons for the discontent: anger has grown over years of security crackdowns including the bloody suppression of protests that erupted in 2022 after Mahsa Amini, 22, died in police custody after being arrested for not properly covering her head.
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Mismanagement and rampant inefficiencies, meanwhile, have brought financial pain and pushed more than 30 per cent of Iranians into poverty.
The country’s economic woes are exemplified not only in 40 per cent inflation but in the rising price of the country’s cheapest car model. A decade ago a minimum wage worker needed 1.6 times their annual income to afford a Pride, as the car is officially known — “coffin on the go” is a more popular label due to its poor safety record. Now, though, they would need three times their income, making the car an unaffordable luxury.
Tensions with the West, meanwhile, have intensified over Iran’s support of Hamas and Hezbollah, who are respectively at war with and close to all-out conflict with Israel, and over Iran’s sale of armed drones to Russia, its human rights abuses and its expanding nuclear programme. This has offered little hope of economic sanctions being lifted any time soon.
On the campaign trail, Pezeshkian said he would try to negotiate with the West to end the nuclear stand-off and win sanctions relief that he said was vital for reviving the economy.
In various often acrimonious debates with rivals he said he would not be able to bring down inflation of 40 per cent without some sanctions being lifted. This, he said, would require a less confrontational approach to the West from Tehran.
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He also suggested he might pursue a more moderate course on social issues, lifting restrictions on internet use and allowing women to decide for themselves if they wanted to wear the hijab.
“If he’s a reformer then he should do it, but it won’t happen,” said Shahin Gobadi, a spokesman for the People’s Mojahedin Organisation, an Iranian opposition group based in Paris.
He noted that throughout the election campaign Pezeshkian had highlighted his religious beliefs and insisted he would follow Khamenei’s guidelines. “He’s a true believer,” Gobadi added.
Videos posted on social media showed people dancing and waving the green flag of Pezeshkian’s campaign after his victory was announced while passing cars sounded their horns.
But Ansari, the University of St Andrews professor, said it was not so much a celebration of Pezeshkian’s victory as an expression of satisfaction that his hardline opponent lost. “People are not euphoric,” said Ansari. “They are relieved.”
