Sir Keir Starmer is almost certain to be the prime minister this time next week, but undecided former Tories, low turnout and tactical voting could all dent his majority
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Spoiler alert: Labour will win the general election. However, important uncertainties remain. Will the Conservatives be able to provide an effective opposition? Will Reform’s appeal surge or fade between now and Thursday? Will low turnout eat into Labour’s majority? Will the SNP still be Scotland’s top party?
Here are my predictions:
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats
• Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats
• Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats
• Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats
• Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats
• SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats
• Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats
• Labour majority: 150
On these figures, Labour is on course for a landslide in terms of
