This has been a profoundly unedifying election campaign. Rishi Sunak has cut an embattled — almost cursed — figure, his Conservative Party lurching through a string of self-inflicted mishaps, culminating in the betting scandal. Sir Keir Starmer and Labour have avoided meaningful debate for fear of disturbing their double-digit poll lead. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has rightly accused both main parties of a “conspiracy of silence” over the stretched public finances. Neither leader has engaged meaningfully with the public. Yes, there have been television debates and interviews, but both parties have run a hermetically sealed campaign punctuated by staged photo opportunities. Did either man walk down a high street and take strangers’ questions?
Every election is important. Yet this feels like a landmark. On Thursday voters will pass judgment on 14 years of Conservative government — an era that has swept from the aftermath of the financial crisis to Brexit and Covid. The period can be roughly divided in two. Between 2010 and 2015, David Cameron and George Osborne ruled with the support of the Lib Dems. They pushed through ambitious reforms to education spearheaded by Michael Gove, started to reform welfare and reassured financial markets when a sovereign debt crisis was stalking the Eurozone. But despite the anaemic recovery, Cameron and Osborne neglected to take advantage of super-low borrowing costs to build key infrastructure. Their partnership culminated in two extraordinarily risky bets: the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, which they narrowly won, and the 2016 Brexit vote, which they narrowly lost, with consequences that are still playing out today.
The period since 2016 has been defined by political chaos that has fatally distracted the political class from those issues that matter most to voters — healthcare, schools and the economy. The slow-motion collapse of Theresa May’s authority as she struggled in vain to get a Brexit deal was followed by moral collapse under her successor. Boris Johnson formulated a big-spending, nationalistic vision of Conservatism that momentarily captured the imagination and helped the Tories win an 80-seat majority in 2019 — a feat in which they were mightily aided by the unelectable Jeremy Corbyn. Johnson got Brexit done after a fashion at the end of 2020 (although the Northern Ireland protocol later had to be unpicked).
Johnson was unlucky in having to deal with Covid and President Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which exacerbated the burst of post-Covid inflation. But he succeeded in making Britain, next to the US, President Zelensky’s most important ally. Before that, he and his cabinet struggled in their Covid response. The wrong-headed closure of schools in January 2021, overly generous government bailouts and fiascos such as the U-turn on the grading of GCSEs and A-levels in 2020 exposed the government as not up to the job. After Johnson slid away on a slick of Partygate sleaze and incompetence, Liz Truss and her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, triggered a collapse in the Tories’ economic credibility with the tax-cutting mini budget of October 2022. Truss resigned after 49 days. Yes, 49 days. Tory MPs have been forced to step down or have had the whip removed because of a variety of unsavoury scandals, and much of Johnson’s majority has been squandered.
Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, who replaced Kwarteng, should be credited for restoring stability. They are decent public servants. But they have ultimately been unable either to repair the damage done to the Tories’ electoral fortunes or to unite their fractious colleagues, who continue to argue bitterly among themselves. Several shaming numbers leap out: since 2016 there have been five prime ministers, seven chancellors, seven foreign secretaries, seven home secretaries and no fewer than nine education secretaries. On beats such as housing — supposedly crucial — the level of churn has been ludicrous. Lee Rowley is both the tenth and 13th person to have held the role of housing minister since 2016.
The Conservatives have in effect forfeited the right to govern. In opposition they must regroup, rejuvenate, reject internecine fighting and stop blaming everyone else for their woes (something neither Sunak or Hunt, interestingly, has tried to do). Bold thinkers should be encouraged. The Tories must rediscover the principles that made them a natural party of government before the Brexit wars — fiscal responsibility, tolerance, free speech and respect for traditions and institutions. Choosing the simplistic vision of a party led, for example, by Suella Braverman and Nigel Farage would guarantee extended time in opposition.
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The Liberal Democrats, with little of substance to offer, remain a party of protest that may be an undeserving beneficiary of the “throw out the Tories” mood. Reform UK, an insurgent force that has tapped into anger over high immigration, has been hit by Farage’s frankly awful comments on Ukraine — and unsurprising revelations of foul remarks by candidates and activists. Crucially, the party offers no constructive solutions to Britain’s problems, and natural Conservatives tempted to lend their vote to Reform should think again. The Greens have attracted elements of the left-wing activist fringe, many of them cynically offering the Gaza crisis as their main policy platform. In Scotland, where the SNP has rotted from within, voters should choose whichever pro-union party is likeliest to win.
Britain now needs a radical reset. If the Tories are due a period in opposition, that can only mean a Labour government. Starmer should be praised for hauling his party back into the mainstream. He purged it of antisemitism, expelled Corbyn and installed the serious figure of Rachel Reeves as shadow chancellor. Some see the way Starmer won the Labour leadership on a Corbyn-lite ticket and then proceeded to ditch early promises as cynical. Perhaps so. But others would counter that Starmer’s apparent colonisation of the centre ground means Labour is now ready to step into the void vacated by the Tories. Unlike Corbyn, he is no risk to national security and, so far, has chosen the right path on Israel and Ukraine. However, both the party’s manifesto and its subsequent public pronouncements still leave many questions unanswered, and Labour arguably needs to do better in office than it has in opposition.
Reeves promises not to raise the headline rates of income tax, national insurance, VAT and corporation tax. But the fear is economic growth will not arrive quickly or strongly enough. There is a danger that, confronted with an ugly picture a year after the election, Starmer and Reeves will resort to soaking the successful in taxes. The proposed consultation on workers’ rights should be a sensible discussion with business. Small firms, long taken for granted, should if necessary be granted exemptions. They must be vigorous in pursuing simplification of the planning system, which will no doubt be painful but is critical to delivering housing and infrastructure. They should seek out innovative answers to plug the energy gap, be transparent about the costs of net zero and not tie the country to an arbitrary deadline. If elected, Labour must also rapidly develop a credible immigration policy to deal with both the small-boat crossings and record numbers of legal migrants. Starmer says he wants to speed up processing and removals. He should prioritise this.
Wes Streeting and Bridget Phillipson will have to get to grips rapidly with near-record NHS waiting lists and the problem of “ghost” pupils missing from school rolls — without buckling under union pressure. Streeting has a big challenge. Will he force a renegotiation of the GP contract? Will there be charges for missed appointments? He cannot waste his golden opportunity to enact reform. And on the issue of safe spaces for women Starmer has vacillated. This must end, and he should stand firm against those who ceaselessly lobby for the dilution of women’s rights.
These sizeable caveats notwithstanding, we cannot go on as we are, and we believe it is now the right time for Labour to be entrusted with restoring competence to government. Britain needs to do better — as a place to live, work and do business. In 2019 Johnson knew many of those who backed him had “lent” him their vote — uncertain about the outcome. We suspect that the same may be true for Starmer but judge that, on balance, he has earned his chance. The scale of the challenge is immense. The exhausted Conservatives are neither up to it nor up for it. There comes a time when change is the only option.