Election day this Thursday is looking windy, cool with outbreaks of showers in the north, but drier, sunnier and breezy towards the south. Will any of this weather matter to voters on polling day? There is a widespread belief that fine weather on election days helps to bring out Labour voters, while Conservatives are more likely to come out whatever the weather. But many experts say this is an urban myth.
For example, Harold Wilson won on a rainy day in 1964, and both his election victories in 1974 were very damp. On the other hand, Harold Macmillan won on a pleasantly warm, largely bright day in October 1959. And April 1992 was another beautiful warm dry day when everything looked like it was going Labour’s way, but the Conservatives won.
The most extraordinary weather at an election was May 3, 1979, when there were showers of snow and hail. Mrs Thatcher won, beating Jim Callaghan, although that followed the infamous Winter of Discontent when widespread strikes came during a bitterly cold winter.
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General elections are rarely called in July because voters can be on holiday, and hot weather is more likely to happen and possibly put off voters — although there is absolutely no risk of a heatwave this Thursday. The last July election was in 1945, when it was largely sunny and warm with temperatures up to 27C. It was widely thought that Churchill would win, so it came as a surprise when Labour won with a landslide parliamentary majority of 146 seats.
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In any case, the influence of the weather on voter turnout is only marginal at best, although rainfall can have an effect. A survey of voter turnout in elections in 15 countries did find a slight impact of wet weather, reducing turnout by an average 0.95 percentage points per centimetre of rainfall, while sunshine increased turnout. What effect this had on the final outcome of the elections was not looked at.
But with more than 25 per cent of the electorate now choosing postal voting, the weather on Thursday is even less significant.
