GRAHAM HENRY, the New Zealand coach, is expected to participate this morning in a conference call debating the tour this summer of the British Isles. Having learnt his diplomatic skills in an old school, Henry will be far too cautious — and polite — to be critical of his opponents two months before the party is even announced, but he will certainly have observed a decline in standards of the tournament that shapes the Lions.
The 2005 RBS Six Nations Championship, after two rounds, is neatly divided into three unbeaten teams and three others who have yet to win. It has to be a concern to Sir Clive Woodward, the Lions head coach, that England and Scotland fall into the latter category and that the overall standard has been diluted by a France team playing without ambition or passion.
Two years ago, Woodward and every other dispassionate observer would have looked at a Lions party built round a powerful core of Englishmen. That core has gone and, if form and fitness mean anything, Ireland will be at the heart of the 2005 Lions with strong support from Wales; students of history might think that a good thing, given how much those countries contributed to the only Lions team — that of 1971 — to win a series in New Zealand.
So desperate is the situation that informed observers, invited to select their preferred Lions team before the start of the Six Nations, included players such as Jonny Wilkinson and Simon Taylor who have not appeared in international rugby for a year and whose fitness — never mind form — is still a matter for debate. The nub of Woodward’s dilemma is that domestic competition in Britain and Ireland is mediocre and that is reflected in the playing standards visible in the international game.
The Celtic League is a thing of growing pains, uneven quality, diluted by the frequent absence of centrally contracted players. The Zurich Premiership in England is exciting but much of it is the excitement of fear: a simplistic view suggests that there is Leicester and Sale Sharks, then the rest, clubs on the slide — such as London Wasps and Gloucester — and just below a mob battling to climb clear of relegation.
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The Premiership, this season, is the biggest advertisement for ring-fencing so that its occupants can learn once more how to play rugby rather than how to avoid losing. It is not a home for quality and what there is has been frayed at the edge by injuries. Even when he has chosen his party of 44 in mid-April, Woodward will spend the last six weeks of the domestic season by his telephone, in case any of his selections are taken away by the remorseless itinerary.
We are talking here of the absolute quality needed to beat the All Blacks on their own turf, and you could not argue that either Wales or Ireland possess that. Brian O’Driscoll, yes, Paul O’Connell, probably, but even such players have never taken part in a winning series overseas, either for Ireland or the Lions.
Wales are still a work in progress and, for all the furore over Gavin Henson, he has much still to prove — one successful goal kick does not make a complete player. It is Ireland who are the most complete team in Europe this year, having been together for so long that the sum of their parts amounts to far more than those parts in isolation.
But here is where Woodward faces the most complex conundrum: will the form on offer in the northern hemisphere now outweigh that of a player who has proved his class in the white heat of, say, a World Cup final? Take Malcolm O’Kelly, Ireland’s most-capped player, as an example: should he be ranked ahead of Ben Kay, of England, who has a winner’s medal in his drawer? Kay played to the highest level in New Zealand and Australia in 2003. O’Kelly, for whatever reason, struggled with the Lions in Australia in 2001 but is probably playing at a more consistent level than Kay now.
The question that Woodward must ask himself is whether that level is high enough to beat the quality New Zealand showed in lambasting France last November. The answer is probably no. The first two weekends of the Six Nations have given him far too much that is second-rate. Wales v England, France v Scotland, Italy v Ireland told him nothing that he did not already know, although that round hinted at unconsidered Welsh possibilities.
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Italy v Wales, Scotland v Ireland, England v France confirmed Ireland’s presence at forward, though against a Scotland team lacking in substance. Woodward must hope that both England and France give Ireland a more serious examination than they have had so far and, if the Irish cope, he can assemble his Lions around a vibrant green heart.