It is now halfway through winter and some surprising trends have emerged. It has been largely mild in the UK, which may seem odd after some cold nights and heavy snows. Overall, December was mild — 2C above average across the UK, with Scotland even milder.
January has carried on in a similar vein, despite last week’s cold snap — and there have been some unexpected twists. The highest temperature of January so far was in eastern Scotland on Tuesday, when Aboyne, Highlands, reached an impressive 13C, thanks partly to a warm fohn wind blowing down from the mountains.
Another surprise was that less than half the normal amount of rainfall fell in England in December. Although January so far has been wetter, the next few days are forecast to be mostly dry.
Those dry conditions are the result of high pressure, which has been a dominant theme this winter. However, these anticyclones have brought fog and smog. The fog has emerged on clear, calm and chilly nights, with the stagnant air trapping pollution. Last month, London suffered its worst episode of pollution for five years, with a brown haze caused by diesel fumes and wood smoke from domestic fires. Parts of London breached annual legal limits for air pollution just five days into 2017.
Perhaps what has been most remarkable this winter is how close Britain has come to being plunged into a deep freeze. Arctic cold air has poured into much of Europe, bringing horrendous subzero temperatures, thick ice and big snowfalls. We have largely escaped that freeze, although some of that cold continental air is making inroads into southern England.
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By early next week the UK’s spell of high pressure system is expected to edge slightly southwards, and that will allow the return of mild, wet and windy Atlantic weather. With no significant cold on the horizon, the outlook for February is more rain, wind and mild conditions, with dry and bright interludes.