A confrontation between Israel and Iran now seems near and inevitable, a moment many have feared since the war in Gaza erupted last year.
Common sense suggests that Iran will respond in a manner calculated to save face — while avoiding a disastrous all-out war — after a suspected Israeli airstrike flattened its consulate and killed its top generals in Damascus this month. Israel, which has its hands full in Gaza, would also want to avoid an escalation.
Common sense is not calling the shots, however. As the past six months have demonstrated, assumptions based on the prudence and self-interest of the actors in this escalating conflict have been unreliable.
Iran now finds itself in a quandary: for years, it has built up a network of allies and proxies in the region that have outmanoeuvred its far richer and far better equipped Arab rivals, forcing one after another to sue for peace.
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It has challenged Israel by proxy, be it through Hezbollah in Lebanon or through Hamas in Gaza, avoiding a direct confrontation with its far more powerful nemesis. The airstrike on its consulate in Syria, widely attributed to Israel, has forced Tehran into new territory that it may struggle to navigate.
According to US media, Washington believes Iran will launch an attack imminently, either directly or by using the fig leaf of an attack by one of its allies or proxies. The first would be unprecedented and, as Israel has warned, would prompt Israeli retaliation on Iranian soil.
It could be a repeat of the massive attack on Saudi Arabia in 2019, when Tehran knocked out half of the kingdom’s oil production with a swarm of missiles and drones launched from Iran.
Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen, who were at war with Saudi Arabia, claimed responsibility but western intelligence officials pinpointed the launch sites in Iran. There would be little point, however, in passing off a new attack as the work of the Houthis, who have been firing drones at Israel regularly since October. Iran will be held accountable just the same.
Another option would be for Hezbollah in Lebanon to attack. The group has conducted almost daily cross-border attacks on Israel, which have been met with Israeli airstrikes. The militant group, however, makes its own decisions, and it does not want to invite a devastating war on Lebanon.
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With the US fully backing Israel against the Iranian threat, an escalation could further draw Washington into a conflict, with unpredictable consequences.
The US said that it was not informed beforehand about the airstrike on the consulate, but backing its ally Israel against Iran — even while it pressures the Israelis to end the war in Gaza — will be a priority.
Meanwhile, the nuclear deal is in shambles and Iran’s uranium enrichment is moving along rapidly. One western official said that Iran’s main obstacle to building a nuclear bomb was the technology to equip a warhead — something that will not remain insurmountable for long.
