THE Conservative parliamentary party is becoming increasingly factional. That is the only way to make even partial sense of the leadership saga.
To describe Tory MPs in the familiar terms of Left versus Right, wet versus dry, pro-European versus sceptic, even moderniser versus traditionalist, is largely obsolete. The factions are defined by a mixture of personality, ideology and generation. They are loose, and there is no consistency, given the frequency of leadership elections and turnover of candidates.
But each faction looks to its leading figure to advance its ambitions and views. That partly explains why there are still so many potential candidates. Several will not be serious runners, but their followers expect them to stay in the race now to secure a strong bargaining position once a leader is elected.
The key decision is how long to keep going, before stepping aside and backing another candidate, preferably the winner who will offer posts to you and your allies. Before the new leadership rules have been fixed, it is a chance to impress. Only later, at least four months away, will the field drop sharply at the nomination stage.
Under the probable rules, any candidate will need the backing of 10 per cent of the parliamentary party. Twenty MPs will probably be too high a hurdle for several.
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David Davis is obviously the front-runner. He has his loyal coterie, not all of whom are assets. Moreover, the Tory Right is split. Many friends of William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith dislike Mr Davis. That explains much of the support for Liam Fox.
But Mr Davis has been gathering support elsewhere because he looks like being the winner. His age, 56, is a help; not too old to look yesterday’s man but old enough to offer the hope to younger MPs that he will not stick around for ever if the Tories lose again.
Kenneth Clarke remains a key figure, although he almost certainly cannot win. His best chance was probably in 1997. But he retains the loyalty of many older members on the centre-Left. So his decision whether or not to stand will influence the other runners.
David Cameron’s problem is that his faction is too well known. Being a bright young man is fine at the right time, as Tony Blair showed in 1994. But many Tory MPs in their 40s and 50s fear, probably wrongly, that he would elevate the young and end their frontbench ambitions. He needs more middle-aged supporters from outside the South East.
That leaves an interesting mixture of other possible runners: David Willetts, who has made the most perceptive post-election speech and whose cerebral decency appeals to the thinking classes; Sir Malcolm Rifkind, who offers experience and the advantage of not being around for the past eight years; and Andrew Lansley, the quiet, thoughtful health spokesman.
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Theresa May and Alan Duncan have broadened the Tory debate, but look unlikely to make much headway. Remember also that the new rules will return the final decision to a ruthless and frustrated bunch eager for power. Perhaps that is the Tories’ best hope.