The footage aired by Iranian state television of missiles and drones setting Israel alight could not have been more apocalyptic. “A promise fulfilled,” read the banner. Tehran had exacted its dreadful revenge for the strike on its consulate in Damascus on April 1, which it blamed on Israel.
However, it was old footage of Chilean vineyards in flames being recycled by Iranian state TV. And Iran’s retribution had consisted of telegraphing the strike for days before launching a slow-motion attack with propeller-driven drones that gave Israel and the US hours to track the weapons and intercept them.
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Why did Iran attack Israel?
The Iranians claim to have accomplished their stated goal — a face-saving retaliation to the Damascus attack, which killed seven Revolutionary Guards soldiers, including a top general who helped co-ordinate between Iran and its allies and proxies in the region. For years, Iran had successfully built up a network of allied militia that turned Tehran into a Middle East power that could browbeat its neighbours, forcing rivals such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to sue for peace.
Israel had steadily degraded Iranian forces in Syria, and killed several senior commanders since the Gaza war erupted in October, and the consulate strike was the last straw.
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How was the attack foiled and will Israel respond?
With ample help from the US, Britain and France, all the drones and cruise missiles fired by Iran were shot down before they reached Israeli airspace. Other missiles were shot down by Israeli jets and air defence systems. Some ballistic missiles, less than 1 per cent of the barrage, made impact and caused minimal damage, although a seven-year-old girl sustained serious injuries.
“The matter can be deemed concluded,” Iran’s mission to the United Nations said after the strike. It is unlikely that the more hawkish members of Israel’s government will see it that way.
Israel has pledged to retaliate, although the cabinet is divided on when and how. Joe Biden, the US president, has pointed out to Israel that the attack showed how robust Israeli defences, and those of its allies, are in the region. “You got a win, take the win,” the US news website Axios reported him as telling Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister. Other countries including Britain have urged restraint.
If Israel carries out an attack, it would most likely target drone and missile factories and sites in Iran, or possibly conduct wide-ranging airstrikes on Iranian bases in Syria. Less likely is a direct attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are well fortified and deep underground, and an action that could prompt Iran to redouble its efforts.
What happens next?
For months, there have been concerns that the war in Gaza, fought between Israel and Iran’s ally Hamas, would escalate into a regional conflict. Saturday night was the moment everyone had feared. It was also the first direct and declared action by Iran against Israel after decades of hostility and years of shadow warfare waged by both sides across the Middle East.
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Iran has said it would conduct another attack immediately if Israel retaliates, but the Iranian response will likely hinge on the severity of the Israeli military operation.
At home, the attack that Iranian media are embellishing will play directly to the unpopular regime’s still sizeable support base. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, there has been opposition to the regime’s draconian religious rule, and its often corrupt clerics and oligarchs. Following protests by women demanding an end to Islamic dress codes, and other popular unrest, the Islamic Republic is in no mood to show weakness at home or abroad.
Will Iran speed up its nuclear programme?
The attack also showed the limits of Iran’s conventional military power and may prompt Tehran to speed up its nuclear weapons programme to establish deterrence, said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the NGO Crisis Group.
“One consequence of this that could be very dangerous regardless of the triumphalist rhetoric coming out of Tehran today is that if their regional deterrence is diminished … Iran is likely to consider the ultimate deterrent, which comes in the form of nuclear weapons. They’ve never been closer.”
Experts say Iran could enrich weapons-grade uranium within a week if it chose to do so, and could assemble several bombs in six months. The decision, however, is fraught with difficulties for Iran, which would face even more isolation and possibly spark the devastating war it has been seeking to avoid if its efforts are detected early on.
