THE winner will probably win far less support than the loser. There is a strong chance that millions of votes will be rendered futile. And hardly anyone will like the result.
But these are mere details in a $100 million (£62 million) experiment in direct democracy that is pushing California closer to the brink of political meltdown and financial collapse.
The task of running for Governor, let alone governing the crippled Golden State, has proved too daunting even for The Terminator. Arnold Schwarzenegger will not, despite a lengthy political flirtation, be riding to its rescue.
But Schwarzenegger’s reticence in wanting to replace the unpopular Governor Gray Davis makes him highly unusual in a contest that is overflowing with outlandish plotlines.
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The extraordinary circumstances of the election, called to unseat Mr Davis only eight months after he won a second term, have thrown up an array of quirks and twists.
An unusually low threshold to join the race — $3,500 and 65 signatures, or 10,000 signatures for those without the cash, and no primaries — has encouraged a potentially vast field. More than 120 people have collected registration papers, including an 18-year-old who has failed six times to be elected to his school council, a Los Angeles billboard queen who drives a pink Corvette, and the longtime caretaker of a highway layby.
The unscheduled election has forced untold problems on the authorities. Many counties are having to call out of retirement the voting machines that produce hanging chads, bane of the 2000 presidential recount in Florida.
In many areas, the sheer size of the field will be too much for the technology anyway. Hand counts could delay a result for days.
Officials in some counties are also struggling to find polling stations. Authorities usually plan up to a year ahead to book stations for scheduled elections. Half of the schools, libraries and other traditonal venues are already booked for other events on the polling day, October 7.
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Voters are also being asked to vote in two separate elections on the same ballot paper. They will first decide if they wish to recall Mr Davis, a colourless technocrat whose bland image is fuelled by his favoured morning drink, a tofu shake. At the same time they will vote on his would-be successor, without knowing the outcome of the initial vote.
If Mr Davis wins the first ballot he will remain in office and the rest of the ballot paper becomes academic. If he fails, the candidate with most votes in the second stage becomes Governor in a first-past-the-post count. Given the number of candidates, it is quite possible that the winner will pick up fewer than a quarter of the votes polled.
Jack Pitney, Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, California, said that the system, which has been on the state’s statute since 1911 but has never been used against a governor, is bound to leave a bad taste. “Desperate times call for desperate measures, and these are desperate times, and boy, this is a desperate measure,” he said.
The seeds of the “recall” election were sown earlier this year when Mr Davis was accused of hiding the scale of California’s $38 billion deficit until after he had secured re-election.
Mr Davis’s approval rating has sunk to a dismal 20 per cent in recent weeks, as many voters in the world’s fifth largest economy prepare to vent their frustration at years of utility scandals, rocketing power bills, and economic mismanagement. But Mr Davis, whose campaign operatives are as ruthless as he is grey, is planning to attack the election.
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Even cutting corners, it will cost the cash-strapped state up to $35 million in public money. The campaigns of individual candidates are expected to cost $60 million.
Mr Davis cannot stop the vote, but his best hope may be to discredit it. He is depending on Democrats not joining the race, a move that would virtually ensure his downfall.
The stakes in California are huge. As Adlai Stevenson, two-time Democratic presidential candidate, once remarked: “In America, anybody can be president. That’s one of the risks you take.” Whatever the result, Californians are about to learn that the hard way.