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WAR IN UKRAINE

Why can’t Ukraine join Nato and what does Russia want?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, or Nato for short, is an intergovernmental military alliance consisting of 28 European and two North American countries.

The expansion of the defensive coalition has been cited by Russia as one of the driving factors behind its decision to invade Ukraine.

As occupying forces continue to advance through the country and bombard its cities, Russia has pressured Ukraine to formally renounce its intention to join Nato.

In a significant development that could aid efforts to negotiate a ceasefire, President Zelensky said yesterday that he had accepted that the “door of Nato” had closed.

Why was Nato formed?

Nato was formed on April 4, 1949 by the US, UK and western states in the aftermath of the Second World War, partly in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union.

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Its three stated purposes were to deter Soviet expansionism, encourage European integration, and forbid the revival of nationalist militarism in Europe “through a strong North American presence” on the continent.

Against the backdrop of communist efforts to overthrow democratic systems across Europe, the allies agreed “an armed attack against one or more of them . . . shall be considered an attack against them all”. Following such an attack, each would take “such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force” in response.

Who are the current members?

The 12 founding members of Nato were the UK, US, Canada, Belgium, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway and Portugal.

Its membership has since more than doubled to 30 countries, through eight rounds of enlargement between 1952 and 2020.

Military analysts have told The Times that the US forms the backbone of the alliance, with its contribution vital for giving it teeth on the world stage.

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The Republic of North Macedonia became the latest country to join, on March 27, 2020.

So-called “partner countries” Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Ukraine declared their aspirations to Nato membership, and at the 2008 Bucharest Summit, the allies agreed that Georgia and Ukraine will become members of Nato in future.

What is the process of joining?

The alliance says it has an “open door policy” to accepting new members, but insists its ongoing expansion is “no threat to any country”, and that membership is not imposed.

European countries that wish to join Nato are initially invited to begin an “intensified dialogue” with the alliance about their aspirations and related reforms.

If talks go well they are asked to join the Membership Action Plan, a programme that does not guarantee membership but is a key mechanism that helps other nations prepare for it in the future.

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Aspiring nations must agree to adhere to the values of the North Atlantic Treaty, and “meet certain political, economic and military criteria”.

These include: having a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy, fair treatment of minority populations, a commitment to resolve conflicts peacefully and an ability and willingness to make a military contribution to Nato operations.

Any decision on enlargement must then be made “by unanimous agreement” of current members.

Why does Russia not want Ukraine to join Nato?

The Kremlin has accused the West of breaking a promise it made in the 1990s not to expand Nato towards eastern Europe, a claim that it has used to justify the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia has consistently demanded that the security coalition drops any plans to include Kyiv, which it claims would breach that promise.

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The accusation is based on verbal reassurances that the US gave to the Soviet Union in 1990 in the months after the fall of the Berlin Wall, in a conversation about the status of a reunited Germany.

Putin claims James Baker, the then US secretary of State, promised Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Soviet leader, that Nato would not extend past the territory of East Germany if Russia accepted the country’s unification.

The promise was repeated in a speech by the Nato secretary-general a few months later, and years later was cited by Putin in his famous 2007 Munich speech.

However, western experts have questioned whether these were “guarantees”, as Putin claims, because the commitment was never written down or recorded in a treaty. The final agreement allowing Nato troops into East Germany was signed by Russia and the West in September 1990.

Just over a year later, in December 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed, creating historic upheavals around the world which further undermine Putin’s claims, according to western academics.

Why can’t Ukraine join Nato?

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Yesterday, amid negotiations with Russia, President Zelensky told a meeting of the northern European security coalition’s joint expeditionary force: “Of course, Ukraine is not a member of Nato. For years we have been hearing about the alleged open door, but we have also heard now that we cannot enter.

“This is true, and it must be acknowledged. I am glad that our people are beginning to understand this and rely on themselves and the partners who are helping us.”

Asked if Zelensky’s words about not joining Nato were “a direct concession to Putin”, Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, said: “I don’t think that’s a concession. I think first of all it’s a reflection of reality that even before this aggression by Russia, Ukraine was not going to get into Nato tomorrow.”