The World Health Organisation was today “very, very close” to declaring swine flu a global pandemic as its flu experts held an emergency meeting in Geneva.
The experts were expected to recommend raising the alert level from phase five, which means that a pandemic is imminent, to phase six, the highest level.
The trigger would be if the experts confirmed that the A(H1N1) virus was being freely transmitted among the population on more than one continent.
Community spread has already been confirmed in the Americas, where the disease first broke out. WHO officials are now reported to have been alarmed by a sudden spike of cases in Australia, and also by rising numbers in Europe.
The move would have no implications for the public, but could prompt governments to take extra prevention measures, such as imposing travel bans and ordering more vaccine production.
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“Once I get indisputable evidence, I will make the announcement,” said Margaret Chan, the director-general of the WHO, who held a tele-conference with the worst hit countries yesterday.
Keiji Fukuda, the assistant director-general, added: “We are very mindful of what is going on in Australia and a number of other countries, and I will simply say that we are getting closer (to declaring a pandemic).”
The WHO meeting got under way in Geneva at noon local time (10am GMT) and ended two hours later, with no immediate word of the outcome.
The virus has spread rapidly in Australia since sick passengers were allowed to leave a cruise ship in Sydney last month.
So far 1,263 cases have been reported among its 21m population. Numbers of confirmed cases have risen four-fold in the last week, and in a worrying development five people have been admitted to intensive care units.
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WHO officials are watching closely to see whether the virus has mutated or is causing more severe illness. So far it has caused relatively mild, cold-like symptoms with headaches and vomiting, with only 141 deaths among 27,737 cases in 74 countries worldwide since March,
The threat was brought home in sports-mad Australia after two prominent rugby league players caught the virus while playing in the prestigious State of Origin match in Melbourne last week. Players from both teams have been quarantined, a major swimming tournament has been cancelled and dozens of schools, kindergartens and childcare centres have been closed.
Some health experts have accused the Australian authorities of failing for too long to do enough to control the spread of the disease.
“The message given to people was that this was not a serious disease and people have not complied with quarantine guidelines. People have gone to work sick. People have not taken it seriously,” said James Schluter, a biochemist with the law firm Holding Redlich.
But John Brumby, the premier of Victoria, the Australian state hardest hit by the virus, said that a high number of cases was showing up because medics were testing methodically for the disease, and because the country was entering its annual winter flu season.
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“We have tested 5,500 people in the last two weeks. If you test that many people you will find something,” said Mr Brumby.
In Britain, where the Government has stockpiled supplies of the antiviral drug Tamiflu, the number of confirmed cases has risen steadily to 797, with about 40 fresh cases a day. A further 605 cases are being investigated. A cluster of cases in the west of Scotland around Paisley and Dunoon is causing some concern.
Some health experts have suggested the true UK tally is much higher, and accused hospitals of failing test patients presenting with respiratory disease.
So far 20 schools have shut in Britain, with 15 already reopened. A 14-year-old pupil at Malvern College in Worcestershire yesterday became one of the latest confirmed cases – the boarding school has not been closed.
The last outbreak to be declared a pandemic was Hong Kong flu, which killed around 3 million people in 1968. In 1918, more people were killed by Spanish Flu in the First World War than by the fighting.