In order to understand the potential scale of Ukip’s challenge to the Conservatives, I have examined the “Top 100” most “demographically favourable” seats for Ukip that are currently held by Conservative MPs. To break through, the party will need receptive voters. Examining the census and political data allows us to divide the seats into three threat levels.
In seats facing a “moderate threat” from Ukip, a strong revolt is possible but difficult. Like many safe Labour seats, these have voters who are economically struggling and angry, but they are better protected by a large Conservative majority.
Seats facing a “substantial threat” have a strong possibility of a serious Ukip revolt; they not only have ideal voters but more favourable political conditions. Seats such as Castle Point, Folkestone and Hythe, and Sittingbourne and Sheppey are also close, enabling activists to “spill over” into adjoining campaigns. There is also a cluster of more northern Conservative-held seats such as Brigg and Goole, Cannock Chase, Dudley South and East Yorkshire that are also in proximity to key Ukip campaign centres in South Yorkshire and Dudley North.
Which seats are facing the most severe threat from Ukip? Alongside Labour seats such as Great Grimsby, Rotherham and Dudley North, Ukip has a credible chance in at least five Conservative-held seats. Boston and Skegness will be the most difficult, due to Mark Simmonds’ majority of more than 12,000, recent problems in Ukip’s branch and talk of Neil Hamilton standing as its candidate.
Other top prospects include those fought by Ukip’s two “big beasts”. In Thanet South, a combination of local election surges, a strong activist base and the Farage factor suggest Ukip can win unless a “stop Farage” tactical vote surfaces. In Clacton, Douglas Carswell was sitting on the most demographically favourable seat for Ukip before he defected.
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In the strongest prospect, Thurrock, Ukip polled more than 45 per cent at the European elections. Tim Aker, its young candidate, contrasts sharply with the Labour’s Polly Billington, an ex-journalist and Ed Miliband adviser, and benefits from the wider circle of seats and activists.
Dr Matthew Goodwin is Associate Professor, Politics, University of Nottingham