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What the referendum means for your cash

J.K. Rowling, the author, has given £1m to the campaign against Scottish independence
J.K. Rowling, the author, has given £1m to the campaign against Scottish independence
AP:ASSOCIATED PRESS

Whichever side of the border you live on, you may be worried about your investments come September 18, the day of the referendum on Scottish independence.

There is good reason to be concerned — the pound hit a seven-month low against the dollar this week as economists warned that uncertainty over the currency question was making investors nervous.

“The most important specific risk in our view is that the uncertainty over whether an independent Scotland would be able to retain sterling as its currency could result in an EMU-style currency crisis occurring within the UK,” Kevin Daly, senior economist at Goldman Sachs, says, referring to the capital flights from Italian and Spanish banks several years ago amid concerns about the eurozone economy.

How will this affect the financial portfolios of ordinary consumers both sides of the border?

An increasing number of clients are asking whether their pension and savings terms would change if there is a victory for the Yes campaign, according to Danny Cox, head of financial planning at Hargreaves Lansdown, the financial adviser.

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“The problem is that there are still so many unknowns it is difficult to advise people about what to do with current investments,” he says.

“Even if the Yes vote did come out on top, it could still be years until tax or regulatory changes actually happen.”

For now experts say that it’s probably best to stay put and keep an eye on things.

Times Money answers your questions.

Regulatory changes — will you be affected immediately?

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If the people of Scotland vote for independence there will still be a long period of transition, starting from the day after the vote until at least March 24, 2016, during which Scotland would remain part of the UK.

The Bank of England would remain the lender of last resort to the banking sector during this period, meaning that banks such as the Royal Bank of Scotland would remain subject to regulation by the bank, as well as the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. RBS says that it is “not taking sides” and that it has been liaising closely with the UK and Scottish governments, as well as carefully considering issues including its credit rating, tax and regulation to ensure it is well prepared.

Will companies move south of the border?

If the Yes campaign is successful, it is more likely to be a case of companies straddling both sides. Standard Life, which has its headquarters in Edinburgh but 90 per cent of its four million customers living south of the border, has said that it is establishing “additional registered companies” to operate outside Scotland “into which we could transfer parts of our operations if it was necessary to do so” as a precautionary measure.

It adds that customers do not need to do anything and that it is simply ensuring that there is a mechanism to provide continuity for customers in the event of constitutional change.

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Will I still be able to use my Isa?

The Treasury has already said that if Scotland chooses independence, its population will no longer be eligible for tax-efficient saving schemes registered in England, such as Isas. This could mean that Scotland develops its own, similar schemes.

In the Scottish government’s White Paper on independence, it states that “in an independent Scotland, this government will continue to support existing tax-free savings products, like savings and investment Isas. Existing schemes will be honoured in full following independence.”

However, it is unclear from this whether Isas will continue to be available in an independent Scotland or whether sums already deposited inside an Isa will simply continue to be given the beneficial tax treatment they currently enjoy but investors won’t be allowed to add funds. David Welsh, of Turcan Connell, a wealth management and legal advice business based in Edinburgh and Glasgow, says: “Much of this will depend on macroeconomic policies adopted for the Scottish economy and could also be influenced heavily by oil prices and the strength of Scotland’s export markets at that time.”

And what about my pension?

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David Cameron has said that Scottish taxpayers would have to spend £1.4 billion more after independence on the state pension as the cost would no longer be spread across the UK, while the cost of borrowing would also become more expensive.

But what about private pensions? “The risks certainly far outweigh the opportunities with a Yes vote and affect those in the rest of the UK as much as they would people in Scotland,” says Alex Montgomery, the chief executive at Turcan Connell Asset Management.

The most significant outcome, he adds, is that independence would turn many UK schemes into international cross-border schemes, with greater complexity and potentially separate legislative, regulatory and compensation regimes between Scotland and the remainder of the UK.

“On the assumption that Scotland would join the EU, pension schemes with employees building up benefits in Scotland and the UK would be deemed cross-border schemes with more onerous funding requirements.”

And my mortgage?

This is the big one, experts say, arguing that if Scottish consumers move from being part of a market of 63 million citizens to one of just five million, loans may cost more as a result of the smaller market place and less economy of scale.

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The “currency question” (David Cameron says an independent Scotland will not necessarily share the pound; Alex Salmond suggests strongly that it will) could complicate things further, says Mr Montgomery, who argues that if Scotland adopts another currency, Scots will probably be given the option to redenominate sterling mortgages into whatever currency Scotland adopts.

“A similar process has already taken place in countries that shed their own currencies in favour of the euro — Irish punt mortgages become euro mortgages,” he says.

“Authorities might nominate a day or value at which mortgages would be locked into the new currency regime, giving consumers the chance to remortgage into the currency of their choice.

“While most investors would balk at the idea of taking on currency risk in their mortgages, others might speculate that they could be better off with a sterling mortgage.

“If rates in the rest of Britain ended up lower than those in Scotland, it might attract Scots to borrow south of the border to purchase a home.”