STICK WITH IT
Continue with the schedule for Iraqis to agree a constitution this year and to hold full elections by early 2006. But there are desertions from the Iraqi police force and terrorists are infiltrating it to carry out suicide attacks. More than 160 car bombs have exploded since April 28.
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Insurgents kill an average of two to three US soldiers a day (in Vietnam it was about 10) and wound more. If the casualties increase, President George W Bush may face political unrest.
Several coalition members plan to leave by the end of 2005.
WITHDRAW TO BASES
American contractors are building military bases outside main population centres. The aim is for the military to move out in strength only for specific operations.
This strategy would depend on training enough Iraqis to police the cities. It would also require the political and military involvement of Sunnis.
CUT AND RUN
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Few in the Bush administration are willing to argue publicly for a pull-out, even after the elections, but that could change. Vietnam, Lebanon, Somalia — the US extricated itself from them all when the political and human costs became too high.
But the insurgents would see it as a victory, with untold consequences throughout the world.
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INCREASE TROOPS
Some military strategists calculate that to defeat an insurgency requires a force advantage of 10 to 1. With anything up to 50,000 active insurgents, this would require far more than the 130,000 troops now in Iraq. The US army would be hard pushed to find them.
STRIKE A DEAL WITH THE INSURGENTS
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But what could the US offer? Sunnis may settle for no less than the withdrawal of US forces, which might be unacceptable to Bush.