In her auspicious reign our Diamond Queen has never visited the world’s most talked about and besieged nation. When Her Majesty returns behind the walls of Buckingham Palace, however, she will be partly protected by technologies that have been developed by Israel to prevent terrorist attacks on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
Ten years ago, in 2002, 452 Israelis died from acts of terrorism. Incidents included a suicide bombing that killed 19 people on a crowded school bus. Israeli society faced meltdown as cafes emptied, weddings moved inside bomb shelters and parents kept their children at home.
The high-tech security fence that now separates the West Bank from Israel has made a huge contribution to the reduction in the number of killings to single figures. Technological superiority has been a huge driver of Israel’s new state of mind. It has not only powered the nation’s economic renaissance; it has also powered the country’s growing sense of security.
The Iron Dome missile defence system is successfully intercepting 90 per cent of rocket attacks launched by Hamas-controlled Gaza. Israel’s investment in unmanned drone systems means it is eliminating more and more security threats with minimum risk to Israeli soldiers’ lives.
It would be wrong to say that this has delivered full peace of mind. The Middle East’s only mature democracy has always been pessimistic about the Arab Spring. Israel predicted the electoral success of extremist Islamist parties, and judges that it will be a long time before its neighbours have the legal protections and media freedoms that underpin true democracy.
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Nonetheless, a large slice of Israeli opinion would rather have technologically backward nations on its borders than economic superpowers with the capacity to launch devastating attacks. Putting aside the argument that prosperity might mean the region’s states have more to lose from aggression, the current situation means the country is closer to normality than for many years. Opinion polls find that the Israeli public’s prime concern is the cost of living, especially energy prices and, in this super-crowded country, affordable housing.
There is, of course, one threat that still gives Israelis sleepless nights and that is a nuclear-armed Iran. The Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, who has become hugely popular within Israel, talks of few other things when he is abroad. Some see the obsession as a tactical distraction from the continuing and provocative settlement of Israeli citizens on Palestinian land but there is little doubt that the anxiety is also sincere.
Last week, as a guest of Conservative Friends of Israel, I visited Yad Vashem, the Holocaust museum. The museum begins by chronicling the early promises that Adolf Hitler made about eliminating the Jews. The world chose to ignore those warnings. Mr Netanyahu will not risk repeating the mistake. As well as denying the Holocaust, President Ahmadinejad has repeatedly vowed to wipe Israel off the face of the map.
Israel has little faith in the talks between Iran and the Six Powers that will culminate in Moscow in a fortnight’s time. Mr Netanyahu sees no evidence whatsoever that Iran is serious about stopping its weapons programme. Iran, he said, was using talks “as another opportunity to deceive and delay, just like North Korea did for years”.
If the talks fail, events might move quickly. A five-month window will open up before America votes. Despite the long-standing relationship between American Jewry and President Obama’s Democrats, the Republicans are now seen as a more reliable ally by Israel — partly because of the hawkish world view of the evangelical Christians, who are such a power in the party. “If we re-elect Barack Obama, Iran will have a nuclear weapon,” Mitt Romney has warned. “If you elect me as the next president, they will not.”
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Although Israel is grateful for Mr Obama’s use of cyber-warfare to disrupt Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme, it fears there is a real Obama and a pre-election Obama. Mr Netanyahu sees Mr Obama as the leader of Washington’s peace party and remembers the offers of friendship that he made to Iran in the early days of his presidency — a period that Tehran used to accelerate its nuclear programme.
If Israel wants to be sure of American support, it must strike before November. Israeli public opinion is supportive of military action but prefers not to act alone. Support surges to 66 per cent if the US leads the attack. Moreover, Israeli intelligence believes that only America has the weaponry to inflict serious damage on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Military action may come with a heavy price. The Haaretz newspaper warns that “no Jewish target in the world will be safe for generations”. An Iran that has been bombed by the “great Satan” and the “small Satan” may emerge more united in its determination to have a nuclear deterrent against future attacks. In consequence, an attack might only deliver breathing space.
Breathing space might nonetheless be all that Israel needs. Back to where we started and the onward march of technology: the vision of a Star Wars missile defence system first advanced by Ronald Reagan is no longer looking like science fiction. Last week Nato announced that a system to defend Europe had reached “interim operational capability”. America is spending $10 billion on missile defence systems every year. Mr Romney’s advisers recommend increasing that by 40 per cent. Israel will be the biggest beneficiary if the Republican nominee gets the opportunity to do so.
A month ago Mr Netanyahu invited the Kadima opposition party into his Government. The broadened coalition is the biggest since the formation of Israel and includes 94 of the country’s 120 parliamentarians. Kadima’s leader, Shaul Mofaz, is warmer to Mr Obama than is Mr Netanyahu and would prefer to focus on the peace process with the Palestinians. What we have, though, assembled in the Knesset is a new government of national unity — almost a war Cabinet.
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The British Government has long appeared to understand the Iranian threat. It may soon have to choose whether to back an attack on Tehran’s nuclear facilities. Few decisions represent a greater threat to the unity of our own coalition Government.
Tim Montgomerie is the founding editor of ConservativeHome and will be a regular columnist every other Monday