Summer is over, at least from a meteorological point of view, and overall it was a surprisingly average summer, slightly warmer and marginally wetter than average over the UK. Yet it was a summer of weather extremes — June and July were largely dry and warm, which brought in a great harvest as well as some good holiday weather over much of the UK. However, August was much cooler and wetter than average, more like autumn than summer. Initial figures from the Met Office suggest that it was the coolest August for 21 years and among the 20 wettest Augusts since 1910. It was also the first month since last November that was cooler than average.
September may bring back a taste of summer. The outlook for the next few days is for some pleasant warm dry sunny weather, temperatures above normal; and the rest of the month looks likely to see some long spells of fine weather, although broken up with showers or more prolonged rains. There will also be some chilly nights. Mid-September is usually the time when most UK households turn on their heating for the first time since spring.
Because autumn is a transition season between summer and winter it is often difficult to make long-range predictions. However, there are hints from some forecast models of a fairly warm October for the UK, and also much of Europe.
Yet looking further into the future, there are some mixed signals as to what to expect this winter. There has been a great deal of speculation that an El Niño is brewing in the Pacific, when warmer waters surge across the tropical seas towards South America and bring big upheavals in global weather patterns. Usually El Niños reach their peak from around December, but the Met Office prediction is for something rather subdued or even no El Niño at all this winter. This may be good news because El Niños are often linked to big upsets in the stratosphere that lead to bitterly cold outbreaks in the UK.